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13 July 2009
[caption id="" align="alignright" width="198" caption="Expect moonshots like this one all night"]
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Is there a more exciting skills competition than the home run derby? Not a chance. Mix in some gambling and you're bound to have a great night. It seems like every year the participants push the limits even further, and this year should be no different. The dimensions of Busch Stadium don't really favor any hitter, so it seems to be a level playing field. To be honest, it's a crap shoot, but I thought it would be fun to handicap each hitters chances tonight. I based my odds on 10% logic, and 90% gut feeling. When it comes to gambling that's often a good strategy. So without further ado, here's what I'm feeling:
- Albert Pujols (3:1)- Clearly the odds on favorite, Pujols is hitting home runs at a Ruthian rate this year. With the hometown crowd cheering him on, expect Pujols to put on a show.
- Ryan Howard (5:1)- A former derby champ, Howard brings both experience and raw strength to the table. This type of contest is taylor made for Ryan Howard, and I think he could challenge Pujols for the title. (don't get used to the Philly love)
- Adrian Gonzalez (8:1)- Will the all-star break be Adrian Gonzalez's coming out party? With a strong performance tonight, he could be this years Josh Hamilton.
- Nelson Cruz (10:1)- Go ahead, tell me I'm crazy for ranking Cruz so high. He will prove you wrong tonight.
- Prince Fielder (10:1)- Similar to Ryan Howard, Fielder has the raw strength it takes to win this type of contest. But I think he might become a victim to fatigue in the later rounds.
- Carlos Pena (15:1)- Last year Pena was my odds on favorite, and he made me look stupid. Home runs are just what he does, but for some reason he sucked last year. Maybe he'll make me look stupid again.
- Joe Mauer (20:1)- I love Joe Mauer, but I feel like this is not his type of contest. He is more of a line drive hitter who happens to collect HRs. He doesn't have the raw power to match up with the other contestants. His 15 HRs this season are already a career high.
- Brandon Inge (25:1)- He is having a phenomenal year, don't get me wrong, but he just can't match up with the other 7. I'm expecting a 1st round exit.
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