Written by Mike Mariano
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14 July 2009
I’m not even going to pretend that the trade value column is my idea, I love Bill Simmons and think his
NBA Trade Value column is fantastic. Here’s my version of the column, MLB-style, in two-parts. Pitchers today, with
hitters yesterday.
I even imported his “rules” for the rankings just so you understand. Except I edited them to be more baseball appropriate.
| THE RULES |
| A quick recap of the rules:1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next five, would you rather pay Alfonso Soriano $136 million or Nick Markakis $66.1 million?2. Age matters. Would you rather have Carlos Beltran for the next five seasons or Justin Upton for the next 12?3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without trade-claus ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal?4. Concentrate on degrees. Neither Philadelphia nor Seattle would make a Felix Hernandez-Hamels trade, but the Phillies would at least say, "Wow, King Felix’s available?" and have a meeting about it while the Mariners would say, "There's no frickin' way we're trading Felix." That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Kevin Youkilis comes in at No. 22, players 1 through 21 are all players about whom the Red Sox would probably say, "We hate giving up Youk’, but we definitely have to consider this deal." And they wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 23 and 50. |
The hitters list was hard enough, but the pitchers list was absurdly difficult. It is such a highly volatile position where you can come from no where and disappear to nowhere fast than you can say “Barry Zito makes $126 million dollars”.
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As with the hitters, there’s guys like Aaron Harang, Javier Vasquez and Chris (not B.) Young who are/were good pitchers but their value just isn’t what we thought it would be. Some older legends are gone (Clemens, Pedro, Maddux) and other legends have no trade value (Big Unit, Glavine, Smoltz). It’s a new world in the pitching landscape. But speaking of guys not on this list, what the hell Fausto Carmona. Get it together. Scott Baker, ehh I’m on the wrong side of the fence for you. Some guys for next year:
Stephen Strasburg: He doesn’t qualify this year, but how can he not be a big trade chip as soon as he is?
Trevor Cahill: One of three young Oakland pitchers (Anderson/Mazzaro too) who could find his way on this list in a year.
Tommy Hanson: He doesn’t really qualify because he’s only been up for a month or so, but he should probably already be on this list at a respectable spot.
Onto the top 50 pitchers. It’s go time.
Group K: “Yeah we’ll trade him, but don’t expect him cheap”
50. Erik Bedard
Easy E has to be on this list because the coup the Orioles got for him when they dealt him. Sherill, Adam Jones and others is building the Baltimore future. However, considering that the Mariners aren’t dealing Erik Bedard for anything less, how can he be any higher.
49. A.J. Burnett
A.J. makes an elephant load of money for a guy who isn’t dominant. Unless of course you can convince him that it’s a contract year. But all that money makes him a lot less desirable.
48. Mariano Rivera
His past accomplishments, combined with his clubhouse presence and still-high-level of play keep him inching his way onto the list. He makes a ton of money and all that and may be retiring soon, but having Rivera trot out of your bullpen in the ninth is something most teams would more than love to have.
47. Jered Weaver
He’s ugly as sin and has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of ineptitude. I can’t decide if the ugliness is a good thing or a bad thing for a pitcher and the jury is out on Weaver. His brother being Jeff Weaver is definitely a negative, that much we know.
46. Adam Wainwright
I’ve never drank the A&W kool-aid (Root Beer flavored Kool-Aid would be disgusting), but his numbers are solid and he’s young enough that he would be great on a contender if they could steal him away at the deadline. Tall guy, good beard, probably drives the women in St. Louis crazy.
45. Kevin Slowey
This is pretty high for a guy without any standout stuff or high-end potential. However with Slowey, he’s a strike thrower and you know he’s going to keep you in the game every time out. With a name like Slowey, is there any other way his career could have gone? I don’t think so. Maybe he could’ve pumped 95 or had a wicked deuce if he wasn’t cursed with the name Slowey.
44. Joakim Soria
I would have Soria so much higher, but closers (aside from the top few) aren’t nearly as valuable young, starting pitching. Soria reminds me of Mariano Rivera. Not on the historical best closer of all time level, but with the power cutter and poise level. I love Soria, he’s got a bright, bright career ahead of him.
Group J: “What do we have to gain from this?”
43. Jonathan Sanchez
Johnny didn’t have superb value until, well ya know he threw a no-hitter. What a perfect time for the Giants to get a tremendous pitching performance from a good young trade piece. All the potential is there, but who knows how much of it he actually figures out. Big, big points if he goes by “The Dirty” Sanchez.
42. John Danks
41. Johnny Cueto
40. Edinson Volquez
These guys are good pitchers, and in their early twenties. They’re a little up-and-down (Volquez is hurt, or he’d be higher) and can all be outstanding players. These careers could all find time much higher on this list or fall off of it completely and no one would be surprised either way. Especially since Cueto/Volquez pitch for the Reds, so their fall-apart potential is extremely high.
39. Zach Duke
For being 8-8, Zach is having a strong year with his 3.29 ERA for the lowly Pirates. I think people assume that Duke is a little better than he is because he pitches for the Pirates and probably loses a lot of wins he should get.
38. Max Scherzer
Power arms like this make GM’s salivate like overweight dogs in the summer. Max throws kerosene gas and has great upside in his young career. He’s got a lot too learn about pitching and setting up hitters and all that old school stuff, but the future is bright.
37. James Shields
Shields’ upside has fallen a little bit in the past two years and is one of those guys with the “Big Game” nickname that he doesn’t quite deserve. That’s not his fault, he’s slowly getting better and better as ‘09 rolls forward. Shields has decent facial hair, if he could step that up a notch or two, he can become a fantastic pitcher.
36. Francisco Liriano
Not the year from Liriano that fantasy owners everywhere were hoping for, but his potential is off-the-charts and would command tremendous value if he was dangled by the Twins. The problem is that he hasn’t been the same since Tommy John. If he flashes that previous brilliance then his value will sky-rocket right up this list.
Group I: “Go ahead and buy his jersey, he’s not going anywhere”
35. Rick Porcello
Rick sneaks into a tier that I didn’t think he’d make this early in his career. At 20 years old, old Fredrick Alfred Porcello has shown signs of brilliance. By the way, what a name.
Fredrick Alfred Porcello. He could retire right now and be an artsy film director or novelist. Good for him that he’s got something to fall back on.
34. Edwin Jackson
If you’re the Rays you’ve got to be pretty pissed about Edwin’s 2009 campaign thus far. They waited and waited and waited for Edwin to show more than just
glimpses of his massive potential. Now you let him go and he puts it together and is one of the top pitchers in 2009. Think about how good the Rays have been with all those prospects they drafted and that doesn’t even include Edwin Jackson and Josh Hamilton (who got great after they left) and Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes (not panning out). Some smart guys making picks and some poor guys developing in Tampa Bay.
33. David Price
Price is such a big prospect that no matter how much he struggles this year his value should remain outrageously high. Price is a two-pitch guy who desperate needs a change-up to help out his filthy slider and fastball. He’s very young, so he’s got time, but the possibility of his being a dynamite closer is something that shouldn’t be written off. With his slider-fastball combo is that far off that he could be like Brad Lidge or Billy Wagner? He may not throw 100 like Wagner or have quite the slider Lidge does, but he’s a hybrid of the two. However, he needs to get a little curve in the brim of that hat before we can move forward.
32. Clayton Kershaw
31. Matt Garza
Both of these guys have sick stuff and the potential to be aces. Will they ever figure it out, I don’t have a clue. Kershaw needs to age facially some. There can only be one teenage looking super-pitcher in the majors and Lincecum has that market dominated. Garza on the other hand needs win 20 games or scale back his disgustingness. To revise the great Crash Davis: “If you win 20 in the show, you can spit sticky lugies every 1.57 seconds and the press'll think you're colorful. Until you win 20 in the show, however, it means you are gross.”
Group H: “Let’s be honest, you’ve got to blow me away”
30. John Lackey
Somebody wake up John Lackey and inform him that it’s a contract year. Lackey is a top of the line starter until this season when he’s been… blah. Couple that with his over the top ugliness and beginning of the season injuries and John has some second half work to do.
29. Derek Lowe
A recent cold-streak has made his 2009 stats look very mediocre but the sinkerballer is a great pitcher. You always know what you’re getting and he’s solid all season and good in the postseason. He’s got a WS ring and near the top a good Braves pitching staff.
28. Carlos Zambrano
Big Z is still pitching at a high level but he’s such a head-case that instead of taking the Cubs to the next level, he’s helping keep them at a strange, not-good enough level. Great competitor and great hitting pitcher, a lot to like, but crazy. I’ve got to go to Crash Davis again on this one: “You just got lesson number one: don't think; it can only hurt the ball club.”
27. Chris Carpenter
The potential for arm injury is going to hold back Chris Carpenter in any potential trade, but he’s a sure-fire ace and got snubbed from the All-Star team this year. He has that veteran swagger that you love to see in your ace. He may have tendons like string cheese at this point, but we’ll worry about that later.
Group G: “What makes you think he’s even available?”
26. Jonathan Broxton
The best
new closer out there and having a monster 2009. He’s big, fat, and has a mullet-looking hairstyle. What’s not to like? Also, he’s on my fantasy team which counts as double in my book.
25. Jonathan Papelbon
Papelbon isn’t nearly as dominant as he was when he first broke onto the scene and my buddy who’s a fanatic Red Sox fan thinks he’ll be gone after this contract. Just because the Red Sox have incredible relief pitchers coming up doesn’t mean that Pap isn’t highly valuable. He’s young, he’s at the top of his position and his head-down-look-up-stare-you-down thing is still cool to watch.
24. Joe Nathan
Joe is just good at his job. He was born to close. I don’t think he gets enough national credit for being potentially the best closer in baseball. If he wasn’t in Minnesota, he’d probably get the recognition he deserves. Also, I heard from a buddy that Joe drives a bad ass truck with baggy jeans and huge earrings. Not the picture I had in my head, but definitely not a bad thing.
23. Francisco Rodriguez
I hate to see that K-Rod has been dominant again in 2009 after he broke the saves record last year. I was sure he would go to the Mets and blow up, there’s still time but K-Rod is pitching phenomenally thus far. He may celebrate like he won the powerball, but even that has scaled back a bit. I know you’re coming back to earth soon K-Rod, and I’ll be watching for when it does happen.
Group F: “I won’t be the guy to trade him”
22. Chad Billingsley
One of the few Dodgers prospects to pan out and looking like a great front-line starter of the future in LA. However, he’s not quite there yet. He’s not
the man yet. It’s only a matter of time for Chad. He needs a little swagger to push him to the next level. A little fire on the mound and he’s not showing it right now.
21. Jair Jurrjens
Scouting report: great stuff, potential ace, bad name. Anytime your name sounds like something Steve Martin said while trying to pronounce “hamburger” in the Pink Panther (I swear I only saw the commercial, you have to believe me), something is wrong. Bright side, a good nickname will take away the only downside to his career.
20. Jon Lester
His tough start to ‘09 is a thing of the past and he’s rolling in June and piling up strikeouts. His early woes keep him here on the list, but if he dominates through the end of this season his value will jump back up where it was and should be on this list. Also, surviving cancer and coming back strong and throwing a no-hitter is bad ass. Gotta like this guy.
Group E: “You’re not seriously asking that”
19. Scott Kazmir
18. Rich Harden
Oh the injuries and the potential for them is sickening. These guys are so good, filthy, but constantly, if not perpetually hurt. If healthy these guys could/would be top-10 on this list.
17. Brandon Webb
He’s out the rest of this season, but he’s still this valuable because of the pitcher he’s become in recent years. Webb’s sinkerball is unhittable and he’s one of the best pitchers around when healthy. He’s under contract for next season too and if you’re out of this season, would it be a bad idea to try and pry him away from the D-Backs and make a run next season when he’s healthy? I’m talking to you Omar Minaya.
16. Jake Peavy
I (and everyone else in the world) am starting to wonder how good Peavy is. He’s a great pitcher, but has a major character flaw as the potential ace of your staff. He’s content to be a loser in San Diego and keeps rejecting trades to teams where he could be in a stretch run for the playoffs. Huh? Maybe he wants to stay in the NL on the west coast and wait for his next big contract, I don’t know. I’m not crazy about any guy who doesn’t want to be on the big stage and chase the ring.
15. Cliff Lee
Lee was so damned good in 2008 it was obscene. The Indians are just so bad this year that Lee is getting screwed into loses because of their lack of run support. His biggest problem is that he doesn’t seem to hold the reputation of some of the bigger names and his value isn’t on their level even though his production might be right now.
Group D: “Not even if we were the last two GM’s on Earth”
14. Matt Cain
Too bad Matt’s recent injury will keep him out of his first all-star game. He’s been fantastic this season and is realizing some of that potential that SF has been waiting for the past few years. He’s a big reason that the Giants are near the top of the wild card despite having 1-3 competent offensive players.
13. Josh Johnson
Big Josh has been simply great so far. He hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in a start since April 18th. I’m nervous about him as the Marlins ace and possibly leading them into a hot summer run and trying to chase the Phillies.
12. Justin Verlander
Well this has been a pleasant turn around from his 17 loss season last year. Verlander is mowing people down like he’s driving an SUV down a crowded sidewalk. He could win 17+ games for the third time in 5 seasons if he keeps this going.
11. Yovani Gallardo
How can you get rid of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets in the same season? Have a guy like Yovani Gallardo to take the reigns of your staff once they leave. Gallardo is their ace of future and has a great name. On wikipedia, Gallardo’s nickname is listed as “El Chupacabra” which is spanish for “the goatsucker”. That is an easy way to get yourself left out of the top 10.
Group C: “I’m hanging up before you can even ask”
10. Roy Oswalt
Roy’s pedigree speaks for itself. He’s finished with an ERA under 3.2 six times in 8 seasons. He’s 31 now, but easily among the top pitchers around. If he could only get out of Houston and onto a contender, I think we would see that “the other Roy” is still filthy.
9. Josh Beckett
Beckett’s a top of the rotation guy and can be flat-out dominant in stints on the mound. His end of season numbers aren’t always flashy but as far as big game pitchers he’s one of the best. His postseason pitching record is 7-2 with a sub-3 ERA in 12 starts. He’s only 29 and has 2 WS rings. Seems a little punky on the mound, but I think you get over that if he’s on your team.
8. C.C. Sabathia
7. Johan Santana
These guys make so much money that they’ll most likely never be dealt, but they got paid 800-ft-yacht-loads of money because they’re fantastic pitchers. 2009 hasn’t been fantastic for either player but they’re among the best in the business any time they take the ball. Both have had success since inking the big money, but will these two (coupled with Barry Zitos and Mike Hamptons) scare away teams from pay record dollars because pitching success is such a highly volatile thing? Not the Yankees of course…
6. Roy Halladay
Doc Halladay’s position on this list is interesting because he’s actually on the trade market right now. It seems like 3 or 4 top prospects is going to be
at least what it costs to land him. That sort of bundle can cripple your farm system, but is a price you’d have to pay for Halladay’s services. The only way Roy could be more fun is if he emulated Val Kilmer’s Doc Holliday from Tombstone in his post-game interviews. Other than that (and his injury-laden past), I’ve got no complaints for Halladay.
Group B: “Who do you think you are?”
5. Cole Hamels
Hollywood Hamels would be a few spots higher on this list if he hasn’t been so up and down thus far in 2009. After the postseason he put together for the Phillies WS run, you could put Hamels up against any other arm in the league. His ERA is north of 4 right now, but his age (25) and body of work (World Series MVP) make him a rare commodity in this league. He’s a little too
Cali for my liking (if you’re not from Cali you know what I mean) and it shows in some regular season starts but he can rise to the occasion when it counts as well as anyone else out there.
4. Felix Hernandez
Long live the King! Doesn’t it feel like Felix has been pitching forever? He’s only 23 and in his fifth season for the Mariners. When this kid hits free agency (I think he’s arbitration eligible after this season and at least the next) he should make silly money. At his worst he’s a high-end pitcher who’s going to eat 200 innings for you. At his best, well I don’t know if we’ve seen what he’s capable of. Would you be surprised if Felix won 25 games in 2011? I wouldn’t. His stuff is mind-boggling and his nickname is cool. He’s got a quite arrogance on the mound and throws wiffle ball two-seamers in MLB 2k8 that move 3 1/2 feet. What more can you ask for in a pitcher. Forget everything I said about C.C. and Johan and big contracts for pitchers, I’d do anything possible to get this guy.
3. Zack Greinke
From the looney bin to the inside track at the Cy Young. A lot has changed for Zack in the last couple seasons. Imagine what his W-L stats would look like if he didn’t pitch in KC? He’s in dire need of a cool nickname. I like the Grinch. Read that on some Royals blog and I think it’s a good fit. He seems so dejected all the time, maybe that’s just me. Stud nonetheless.
2. Dan Haren
Lost in the Doc Halladay and Grinch hoopla this season is what Dan Haren has been doing out in Arizona. It doesn’t help that his team sucks and never scores when he pitches, but Haren has blossomed into one the best young pitchers in the game. The reason I have him slightly above the Grinch is because of his body of work. He’s won 14+ in four straight seasons and has an ever-lowering ERA. Currently his ERA is a microscopic 2.01 and WHIP of .808. If I lose out of the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, I consider paying a little extra and trying to grab Dan Haren. Then cackling your way down the stretch as he pummels teams into submission night after night.
Group A: “Not now, not ever”
1. Tim Lincecum
And then there was one. After stomping all over the National League last season and taking home the Cy Young for a putrid Giants team, he’s off and running all over everyone again this year. His K numbers are off the charts again and his commercials for MLB 2k9 were hilarious. He looks like he’s 15 and should definitely cut that goofy hair, but looking into the future, Tim Lincecum is undoubtedly the most valuable pitcher around. The wind-up might scare people, but I think it’s a positive. The best thing that he could do now is grow some silly facial hair like a Sidney Crosby psuedo-beard. Then the sky would truly be the limit.
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That's all she wrote, yesterday I did the Manny dance, but today for the pitchers theme, I've got to break out the J.C. Romero fist pump.
