Written by Mike Mariano
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13 July 2009
I’m not even going to pretend that the trade value column is my idea, I love Bill Simmons and think his
NBA Trade Value column is fantastic. Here’s my version of the column, MLB-style, in two-parts. Hitters today, with pitchers to come right behind them tomorrow morning.
I even imported his “rules” for the rankings just so you understand. Except I edited them to be more baseball appropriate.
| THE RULES |
| A quick recap of the rules:1. Salaries matter. Over this season and the next five, would you rather pay Alfonso Soriano $136 million or Nick Markakis $66.1 million?2. Age matters. Would you rather have Carlos Beltran for the next five seasons or Justin Upton for the next 12?3. Pretend the league passed the following rule: For 24 hours, any player can be traded without trade-claus ramifications. So if Team A tells Team B, "We'll trade you Player X for Player Y," would Team B make the deal?
4. Concentrate on degrees. Neither Philadelphia nor Seattle would make a Felix Hernandez-Hamels trade, but the Phillies would at least say, "Wow, King Felix’s available?" and have a meeting about it while the Mariners would say, "There's no frickin' way we're trading Felix." That counts in the big scheme of things.
5. The list runs in reverse order (Nos. 40 to 1). So if Kevin Youkilis comes in at No. 22, players 1 through 21 are all players about whom the Red Sox would probably say, "We hate giving up Youk’, but we definitely have to consider this deal." And they wouldn't trade him straight-up for any player listed between Nos. 23 and 50. |
Now this idea doesn’t translate perfectly to baseball. In my mind hitters and pitchers are like Phillies and Mets fans, they don’t mix. So I’ve got to do them separately. I’ll do a top 50 hitters and a top 50 pitchers with some honorable mentions.
Seeing as it’s almost trading season, it’s a good time for this. Most likely the majority of these guys won’t be traded this summer unless you play MLB 2k9, but it’s always a fun topic to discuss (and argue about).
I know that it’s already mentioned in the sidebar, but age matters, a lot. In an age of super-paranoid GM’s, you don’t want to be the guy who traded away the next big thing, so young guys take on even more value.
Also, this season’s performance is an important input into this ranking, however it’s the long-haul we’re thinking about too, not just the immediate future. And another thing, prospects aren’t included in this. Only established major league players or it would get waaaay too murky in here.
Without further rambling and explaining, here comes the lists. You’ll get all the fun and water-cooler material of Simmons’ column, but most likely not nearly as much quality humor and insight. But you’re a smart guy so you take what you can get. Moving on!
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There are some big names outside of the top 50 hitters. Who would’ve guessed before this season that
David Ortiz wouldn’t be on this list? Somewhere Jose Canseco is screaming that he’s writing a book about how he guessed exactly that.
Vernon Wells is another who is too erratic and makes too much money to find himself a spot. Following the disappointing Blue Jay trend is
Alex Rios who can’t see to find where he misplaced those 5 tools he’s got somewhere. Here are some of my favorite guys for next year:
Mark Reynolds: He may strike out like no other (literally, he’s the best) but he also has massive power. He’s got 21 homers already this year and is on pace for 45. How long is it until he joins the Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn/Adrian Gonzalez clan of big strike-out boppers?
Matt Wieters/Andrew McCutchen: They don’t qualify yet, but there isn’t much their respective teams would trade them for.
Geovany Soto/Stephen Drew: Both guys would’ve been locks for the list, but haven’t put it together in ‘09. Maybe next year.
Onto the top 50 hitters. Let’s do this.
Group N: “Ehh, I don’t know about dealing that guy”
50. Yadier Molina
With the allegations of steroid use running rampant, how hasn’t anyone questioned Papa Molina for stem cell manipulation and genetic doping? The Molinas have got to be up there as one of the most uniquely talented families in sports history. Papa Molina obviously figured out the secret to genetic manipulation and he chose defensive catchers as his offspring. Wouldn’t have been my first choice and I am a catcher. Yadier is so good however, that he makes this list as undoubtedly the best defensive catcher in the league despite being inherently lazy.
49. Derek Jeter
It has gotten to the point with Jeter that his contract so outweighs his production that he can barely stay on the list (despite that fact that he’s a good player). Will he play shortstop in the future or centerfield? Doesn’t matter. The Captain brings so much to the table that any team in the league would be glad to have him. Yeah, that means Boston too.
48. Jimmy Rollins
Two years ago, J-Roll was an MVP with ridiculous numbers. Last year, he was a key member of a championship team despite playing hurt all year. This year, Rollins is struggling worse than Joe Buck trying not to look at himself in the mirror. He’s still a top-notch defender, but the Mouth of South Philly has got start backing it up on the field if he’s going to move back up the list.
Group M: “Better the devil we know, than the one we don’t. Right?…”
47. Carlos Lee
”El Caballo” would probably be higher if you could still take steroids, but since that’s over he’s just good, not great. Just kidding. No for real though, being an old power guy, who knows how much longer he can keep up his solid production.
46. Aramis Ramirez
Aramis was skinny, then huge, and now he’s skinny again. He’s good for 20+ homers and a near .300 average. Injuries have limited his ‘09, but he’s an intimidating bat to have in your line-up.
45. Carlos Pena
Just when it seemed like he’d never figure it out, Carlos Pena moved to Tampa and hit 46 home runs. His power numbers have been awesome ever since. If you haven’t noticed, this group doubles as the “we may or may not have done steroids and could fall off at any moment” group. Sorry guys, but it’s 2009. You don’t get to be massive and bomb home runs without speculation.
44. Adam Dunn
Dunn’s value must not be all
that high judging on all of the teams that passed on him during free agency. He may strike out with the best of them, but he’s definitely hitting 30+ homers probably at least 40 and he’s only 29. And his career .382 OBP is fantastic considering how often he K’s. He may not be the sexiest pick (yes, i just went all ESPN fantasy analyst on you), but he’s rock solid consistent. I love him and think he should be higher, but his value just isn’t there league-wide.
43. Chipper Jones
Larry Chipper is one of the better pure hitters in baseball, but he’s hurt and old and you just can’t trust him to play a full season. However, what he does with the 100+ games he does play are routinely great. Another thing that tells you how good he is, he’s uniformly
HATED by rival fans. You only save hate like that for the truly great players.
Group L: “This is OUR future and we like it that way”
42. Matt Kemp
Kemp is doing a good job in ‘09 and giving solid 5-tool production. Nicknamed “the Bison” he had better start hitting a few more home runs. Overall, he just looks like a good ballplayer which is half the battle for some guys (Yeah, that means you
Hunter Pence. You’re goofy as hell, figure it out.)
41. Curtis Granderson
40. Brandon Phillips
What a strange two guys. Both are in the tail-end of their primes and have shown just how could they can be during the ‘07 season. ‘08-‘09 has been good for both of them, but where is
that guy. Where is Granderson’s 20/20/20/20/20 guy? And Phillips’ 30/30 guy? Since
Barry Bonds retired Pedro Gomez must be pretty bored, can we get him on the case?
39. B.J. Upton
First of all, his name is Melvin Emanuel Upton but somehow he is allowed to have Bossman Junior on his baseball card. Okay if I ever make the Bigs, I want my name to be B.A.M.F. Mariano. Secondly, with every passing year trading an Upton brother looks like a dumber and dumber proposition.
38. Adam Jones
You know that Adam Jones isn’t going to finish the year with the numbers he put up in April/May. But those two months alone are good enough to make every Mariners fan cry when they see Buster Olney raving about him on Baseball Tonight.
37. Carl Crawford
The dream of C.C. being a 30/30 guy is basically gone. But you know what you’re getting here: exceptional defense, a .300-ish average, 10-20 homers, and a massive amount of stolen bases. Most notably, in a prospect-crazy world he managed to fend off Elijah Dukes, Delmon Young, Rocco Baldelli, and Josh Hamilton. Okay most of those guys were busts, but they were all uber-prospects in their days in Tampa and couldn’t supplant Crawford.
Group K: “Yeah we’ll trade him, but don’t expect him cheap”
36. Matt Holliday
A charter member of the Bald Brotherhood, Holliday was a budding star in Colorado where Coors field turned serious power into massive power. Coors field was to Matt Holliday that porno mags were to Rube Baker. Holliday is still regarded as a prime-time player, being away from Coors diminishes his value. Maybe it’s time to go from buzzing his head without the guard to full-on skin head. In my mind, that would take him to the next level.
35. Jason Bay
Jay-Bay (that has to be his nickname right?) put up some great stats that no one but fantasy owners noticed in Pittsburgh before being rescued and showered with gifts (like World Series rings and fans actually in the stadium). Bay still has that power swing and finally is getting his deserved recognition in Beantown. Good for him.
34. Victor Martinez
V-Mart (how much do you hate those nicknames, why do I encourage them) gives you what most catchers can’t and that’s high-level offensive production. His age is the only thing keeping him from being higher. On a positive note, doesn’t he seem like the kind of guy who could say something funny and make you laugh after a strike-out? That’s got to count for something.
33. Prince Fielder
I’m sorry but vegetarian or no vegetarian, the man is too fat to go any higher. He is a tremendous player and surprisingly smooth athlete (for a man his size, that is), but how can you rest easy for the future with someone that big? It's like drafting a stud RB who weighs 155 lbs. He may be a beast for a while, but in the end it’s going to be quick and painful.
Group J: “What do we have to gain from this?”
32. Torii Hunter
To be honest, I can’t believe that Torri has played this well, I’ve never been on his bandwagon, but he’s never done anything but produce. He plays a fantastic centerfield and puts up great power numbers. I don’t know how much he has left, but as of right now he’s a great ballplayer. His defense is what gives him a kick over the guys behind him, as a truly great centerfielder that can hit is a rarity.
31. Raul Ibanez
Rau(uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu)l put himself on the map for everyone who doesn’t like in Seattle with his unbelievable start to ‘09. He hit a snag with a trip to the DL, but it’s amazing how high Ibanez has shot up. He may be 37, but what he’s doing at the plate is extraordinary and warrant his placement this high. Maybe he’s batting in a real lineup, maybe he’s an east coast guy, who knows. But Raul is on top of the world right now and it couldn’t have happened for a better guy. He’s regarded as one of the nicest guys in the Bigs.
30. Alfonso Soriano
Look back at Alfonso’s career. Came up as Yankees 2B, peaks in ‘02, traded for A-Rod, becomes household name in Texas, spends a mercenary year in Washington as LF, signs with Cubs in mega deal, bombs homers the whole ride and goes 40-40 twice (well, one was 39-40). Now at 33, Soriano is an wild card. You have an idea of the range of stats you might get, but where in that range he’ll finish is completely random. 20-30-40 HRs? .240 or .285? Couple that with the fact that he doesn’t have a regular spot in the batting order and you have no idea what you’re getting with Soriano. He might even make too much money to be ranked this high.
(Interesting note about Soriano: He arrived in NY in 2001, the beginning of the fall of the dynasty. Then he toiled on bad teams in Texas and Washington never winning anything. Now in Chicago, he was part of two championship caliber teams (‘07&’08) and both teams choked it away. Soriano has found failure everywhere he has gone. Happens to a lot of guys, but Soriano doesn’t seem like a guy who’d sacrifice it all for the team. Might not be coincidence.)
Group I: “Go ahead and buy his jersey, he’s not going anywhere”
29. Russell Martin
28. Troy Tulowitzki
Despite rough ‘09 campaigns thus far, it is hard to imagine either of these guys actually getting moved. Also, both guys play scarce positions that make them even more valuable. However they've failed to reached that level where you know they’re going to be premier players every year. Their youth makes them immovable and they should both easily climb the list if the rebound their ‘09 campaigns.
27. Dustin Pedroia
Out of respect for the numbers he put up last year (as the AL MVP, no less) he should be higher. However, I don’t care if he’s only 25, there’s no way in hell he puts up those numbers again. He led the league in hits, runs and doubles
AND he hit 17 homers and stole 20 bases. I’m in “better a year too early, then a year too late” camp when it comes to trading and his price will never be higher, so I’d be confident dealing Dustin for any of the guys ahead of him here. Then again, maybe I’m discriminating because he’s short. So be it. If you wanted to keep him, he should be a great second baseman for years to come.
Group H: “Let’s be honest, you’ve got to blow me away”
26. Lance Berkman
Lance is struggling a bit in ‘09, but he has one of the sweetest swings in baseball and is a tremendous switch hitter. I would love to see Lance get traded to a contender because I think he’d be a great postseason player for a title contender. Also, Lance looks like he might have one of the biggest heads I’ve ever seen. Maybe it’s the chubby cheeks. Maybe it’s the hair. We need a ruling on this.
25. Kevin Youkilis
Plain and simple, Youk is a great baseball player. He plays defense, he’s smart, he hits for power and average and he’s a leader on the field. With his approach and style, he should be able to maintain this high level of play.
24. Carlos Beltran
Arguable the best centerfielder in baseball. He’s lost a step over the years but is tremendous defensively, not to mention the sweet power swing he possesses at the plate. He doesn’t appear to be much of a leader in the clubhouse, but he plays hard every day at a superstar level. What more can you ask?
23. Ichiro
Ichiro is 35, but has he aged a day in the 9 seasons that he’s played here in the U.S.? He may not run as much, but he is still one of the best hitters in baseball. In a down year in ‘08, he hit .310. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him play at a high level until he’s 40. The only thing keeping Ichiro from playing 10 more years is Ichiro, because he can flat out hit like few men who’ve ever played this game.
Group G: “What makes you think he’s even available?”
22. Ryan Zimmerman
I like Zimm a lot and originally had him a lot higher. However once you see him in action, he can’t go any higher. He’s the face of the Nationals franchise and they don’t even seem that excited when he comes to the plate. Zimmerman is your classic, 100+ K power guy, but the fact that he’s only 24 keeps him high on this list. With all of his potential, maybe he puts it together and bashes 40 in 2012. I think he’d be much better if he didn’t have to carry a franchise on his back and could hang out batting fourth or fifth and protecting someone else. Put Zimmerman on the back burner, but make sure you check on him if he gets moved or the Nats find another superstar for him to protect (like Bryce Harper in next years draft?).
21. Josh Hamilton
Josh has had a rocky start to ‘09 with injuries, but few players have the tools and talent that he has. Hamilton exploded with 32 HRs and a .304 average in ‘08 and with his skill set there’s no reason to think that when he comes back he won’t return to form. He would be higher but with his checkered past and injury trouble, he carries more risk than most.
20. Brian McCann
Aside from not being Joe Mauer, there isn’t much more you can ask from McCann. He hits for average and power and wears awesome
red orange red orange sports glasses. On top of that, he murders the Phillies which is a Chipper-Jonesian trait, so McCann’s career is definitely heading in the right direction.
19. Ian Kinsler
In his fourth year in the bigs, Kinsler is seemingly testing out his big-time talents. Last year, Kinsler hit .320 with 18 homers. This year Kinsler dropped to .268 but already has 18 homers and it’s the end of June (STEROIDS!! just kidding. move along.) As a second basemen Kinsler displays rare power talent at a position that sure lacks it.
18. Nick Markakis
Why doesn’t Nick go by, Nicholas Markakis? We could call him Sir Nicholas Markakis of Baltimore and he can grow his goatee and hair out and look just like the good King in Braveheart. Something like that is exactly the kind of thing that would make me buy your jersey. Couple that potential with a guaranteed .300/20 HRs and some speed at 25 and it’s easy to see how Sir Nicholas got this high.
Group F: “You can’t afford him”
17. Manny Ramirez
This group doubles as the “Mega-contract, baggage megastars”. Manny can do things in the batters box that even other major leaguers can’t dream of doing. He has sure-fire hall of famer numbers and can single handedly carry your team, if he wants to. So long as you can keep Manny motivated and in line, you have one of the greatest hitters of all-time.
16. Alex Rodriguez
He may be struggling in ‘09, but from a pure numbers stand point he is most likely going to be amazing for the foreseeable future. The only risk is that he collapses mentally and quits. And with his current psyche, anything is possible. We could talk A-Rod all day, but we’ve got better things to do.
Group E: “You’re not seriously asking that”
15. Adrian Gonzalez
14. Justin Morneau
Gonzo is receiving national attention because of the barrage of home runs that he’s hitting in ‘09, but he’s been on this path for a while now. Adrian seemingly only hits home runs. He has 24 homers and only 6 doubles. How is that possible? At 27, with the year he’s having and his power-filled past, Gonzalez is a star many teams wish they had hitting clean-up. Morneau is in a similar boat, if he wasn't in Minnesota, he'd be a much bigger star.
13. Ryan Howard
This year Howard added good defense to his wild power numbers. Rhyno is as good or better than everyone in baseball at what he does and that is hit home runs. When he’s at his best he can blast them effortlessly oppo and more than make up for his plentiful strikeouts.
12. Jose Reyes
Jose’s age and abilities tell you that he’s an extremely rare commodity. From ‘05 to ‘08 the future looked blindingly bright. Despite a slow start to ‘09, it is largely still that way. At 26, Reyes is a game breaker when on his game. Hopefully for Mets faithful, Buster Olney’s off base when he questioned whether we’ve already seen the best from Jose Reyes.
11. Ryan Braun
All the power and a great average. Not many guys are hitting +30 bombs and well over .300. In ‘09, the 25 year old Braun is on pace to do it for the second time. He may be a little cocky as judged by some of his home run trots, but the Hebrew Hammer has all the talent in the world to get away with it.
Group D: “Not even if we were the last two GM’s on Earth”
10. Justin Upton
The things this kid is doing are outrageous. The power he shows at 21 puts him in rare company. His defense is good and improving too. When he was drafted he was compared to A-Rod and Griffey and what he’s doing at this age is pointing all signs towards super-duper-stardom. Trading a guy like this is something you don’t recover from if he pans out. You never stop being the butt of that joke. The guys at FanGraphs wrote, “Upton’s performance just reinforces the point that we may very well be looking at a Hall Of Fame player emerging before us.”
Group C: “I’m hanging up before you can even ask”
9. Mark Teixeira
At some point, you have to ignore what Upton could be and take what you can now. Teix took the NY money and ran, but he’s putting up big time numbers to make good on their investment. His .276 is improving to go along with his 22 bombs and he’s a great defensive first basemen to boot. He’s outrageously expensive, but it comes with the proven territory.
8. Miguel Cabrera
If he ever puts it together, he’s the next Manny Ramirez. This year he’s crushing baseballs as we all hoped he would. He’s 26 and on pace to hit over .320/30HRs for the 4th time already. His 162 game average over his first 7 seasons: 32 homers, 118 RBIs, .310/.382/.542. Basically if you can get your hands on him don’t let him go. Unless you’re the Marlins, in which case sell him for all he’s worth.
7. Grady Sizemore
Grady is having a rough go of it in ‘09, but he’s dynamic all over the field. He’s a 30/30 guy waiting to happen and plays a sick centerfield. At 26, you can’t find a CF who can do the combination of things that Sizemore can. He’s got that half-black/half-white, Derek Jeter thing going on too. Maybe that’s the secret wild MLB success. Can we get a rundown of all the half-and-half guys in the league?
6. Evan Longoria
It is only the middle of Evan’s second full season and he’s flat-out dominating. Hitting above .303 with 16 bombs and on top of that he makes peanuts (well, $17 million worth of peanuts, but you get the picture). He also shares a name with hot hollywood starlet. There isn’t much this guy doesn’t have going for him.
Group B: “Who do you think you are?”
5. Chase Utley
Also known as “The Dream Infield” group. Utley is by far the old man of the group and that’s what keeps him behind the other three. Utley’s mix of talent, skills, grit, intangibles, you name it, has made him one of the marquee players in the league. He is the leader of the defending champs and plays the game right and all-out every single day. That’s a very rare trait for a super star. Utley put up great numbers in ‘08 despite playing hurt most of the year and all of the playoffs
and he recovered double time to make ‘09 right out of the gate. Offense, defense, whatever, Utley is everything and more you could want in player.
4. David Wright
DW could really be on the level with Hanley and possibly Mauer if he didn’t lose his power stroke this season. Granted he was leading the league in average at one point in the season, but Wright’s 30 HR power was part of what made him one of the most excited young players in the league. The only risk with Wright is that despite being 26, he looks so emotionally abused from his time in NY and their recent failures that mentally he may be more like 35. During those collapses he had the look of someone who walked in on his parents and can’t get the image out of his head.
3. Hanley Ramirez
Hanley may not be a SS for much longer, but even if he shifts to the outfield his offensive abilities will more than warranty such a high status. You know how you know he’s so good? The Marlins were willing to ship Miguel Cabrera out of ton when it looked like being the next Manny was a given and have decided to keep Hanley Ramirez as his contract moves along.
2. Joe Mauer
Joe was good enough until he started smacking home runs this year. Now he’s undoubtedly one of the best hitters in baseball and he doubles as a catcher (ehh, he’ll probably be playing 1B or DH soon enough). Right now he’s hitting .386. It’s gotten to the point where taking your chances with Justin Morneau is a desirable option. The Twins will do everything they can to sign him, but how can you pass up the blank checks that the Red Sox and Yankees are going to be offering?
Group A: “Not now, not ever”
1. Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols is absolutely unstoppable. He’s a great defender, he’s a smart player, and he should never be pitched too. He has 30 homers already! That makes 9 straight seasons with that many. Memo to all pitchers: Never pitch to him. What do you think the Cardinals record would be in Fat Albert got walked every time he came to the plate? I’d rather pitch to Ludwick & Ankiel with men on than Pujols at all. On top of it all, he makes half of what the other studs make. When he hits free agency he should get a check for the max St. Louis can offer and maybe 50% stake in the ownership if they can’t afford him. Anything to keep Pujols around is worth it. He has never
not hit 30 homers or hit .314 in any of his nine seasons. I can go on all day. That’s why he got his own group. He’s the Don. I’m making a movement that we refer to him solely as Don Pujols for the foreseeable future.
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And that’s the list. Now I do the Manny home run celebration where I throw up both hands and stare at what I just did for a few seconds.
