The Next Great Debate: Halladay vs. Santana

Written by Matt Ryan

Tuesday, 15 December 2009 15:34

America loves a good debate, and in recent years we've had our fair share of great matchups. Obama vs. McCain, Kobe vs. LeBron, Manning vs. Brady, and Charlie Manuel vs. the English language. Enter Santana vs. Halladay.

This figures to be an ongoing battle, perhaps as fierce as the rivalry itself. In the aftermath of the trade, most writers refer to Halladay as "the best pitcher in baseball", and its making me sick. As far as I'm concerned, Santana is still the best pitcher in baseball. He was in the past, he is now, and he will be going forward. And I'm here to tell you why. Cue the Phillies homers.

First off, lets take a look at the career stats:

Johan Santana: 122-60, 3.12 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 9 CG, 143 ERA+

Roy Halladay: 148-76, 3.43 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 49 CG, 133 ERA+

So Santana has the edge in winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and K/9. To be fair, Halladay has a massive edge in complete games. And to me, that is Halladay's biggest strength. Still, I would have to give the career stats edge to Santana. Most people say that in the past 2 years, Halladay has greatly outperformed Santana. This is blatantly false. Check the numbers:

2008-2009 (since Santana joined the Mets)

Johan Santana: 29-16, 2.78 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3 CG, 150 ERA +

Roy Halladay: 37-21, 2.78 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 18 CG, 154 ERA +

Again, outside of the complete games, it looks like a wash to me. You probably have to give Halladay the slight edge here, but nothing significant enough to claim the title of "best pitcher in baseball". Drew Brees doesn't become the best QB in the NFL if he has a better season than Peyton Manning. Bottom line, Santana has the better track record, and he hasn't had a bad year in his entire career. Hallday has. And although Santana is coming off of elbow surgery, I like his chances of a more sustained career. Halladay is a power pitcher who throws an incredible amount of pitches per year. Santana is more of a finesse guy who relies on his changeup as an out pitch. What will happen to Halladay when he can't blow people away? Who knows. But for many pitchers, like Pedro Martinez, this is a problem. And Santana is 2 years younger to begin with.

One thing is for certain. No matter which pitcher is better, the other guy is a close second. And we are in for some legendary pitchers duels in the coming years. I'm looking forward to watching, and arguing about this, for years to come.

Comments (13) Add Comment

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written by Benny B, December 15, 2009

Santana may have some finesse pitches Matt, but he is def. not a "finesse pitcher". Pedro & Glavine are now finesse pitchers. He still throws mid 90's and can juice it up when necessary. I think what is ultimately going to separate Roy from Johan is a) as you mentioned the accumulated wear on Doc's arm b) Johan is left handed and c) Johans change up. The change up is his money pitch. As long as he is able to keep that 20 mph differential b/w his fastball and change up, it really will not make that much of a difference if his fast ball is 95 or 85. I see no reason (assuming health) why Johan cannot be a highly affective pitcher for years to come.

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written by EastFallowfield, December 15, 2009

It's actually pretty impressive that Halladay stats are 'a wash' compared to the Santana of the Met years when he was pitching in the AL.

And I'm guessing most people would say the AL East is more challenging to pitch in (especially if you're not on the Yankees or the Red Sox) then pitching in the AL Central.

And, yeah, Santana's always had that lockdown bullpen in NY, so complete games are completely overrated.

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written by Matt Ryan, December 15, 2009

Benny thats basically what I meant. I mean you're right, to call Santana a "finesse pitcher" would be a stretch. But to be fair he also doesn't sit mid 90s. He is consistently 90-93. I just wanted to stress the fact his out pitch is a change-up. And good call on the lefty aspect of things.

EFF, what do you want me to do? Ignore the stats advantage that Santana has (including a .3 career difference in ERA) because Halladay has faced the Yankees and Red Sox throughout his career. To be fair he also pitched quite a few complete game shutouts against terrible Rays and Orioles teams. I'll admit Halladay was a little better last year, but like I said one year doesn't define everything.

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written by Benny B, December 16, 2009

Santana spent his entire MLB career in the AL before his move to the NL, so I don't know what point it is you are trying to Make EFF. Arguments can be made either way of who is a better pitcher, but forget the past. I wonder how Doc is going to handle running the bases the first time when he has to go first to third/home. See Chin Ming Wang.

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written by philliephan2, December 16, 2009

Benny you hit the nail on the head - the argument can be made either way. Although somehow if Phillies' fans make the argument for Halladay, they're homers ...

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written by EastFallowfield, December 16, 2009

I was referring to the two year comparison (since Santana on the Mets). If Halladay and Santana's stats are close, and one's in the AL and one in the NL, then clearly the pitcher in the AL had a better two years. I'm sure even you guys have heard of the DH, right?

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written by Matt Ryan, December 16, 2009

Look, Santana had arguably the worst year of his career last year (although it was still pretty damn good). And he was probably dealing with elbow trouble all year. But if you look at the body of work, Santana looks like a slightly superior pitcher to me.

Is Adam Wainwright better than Halladay? Because he was better last year.

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written by Matt Ryan, December 16, 2009

And thats no knock on Halladay by any means. In my opinion, Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and Halladay is a very close second.

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written by EastFallowfield, December 16, 2009

If Halladay can keep tossing complete games like he has in the past, it'll be nice to not have to worry about the bullpen every 5 games.

Did the Mets pen blow any of Santana's games after he left? Can't remember. smilies/wink.gif

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written by EastFallowfield, December 16, 2009

And if you go by WAR, Halladay's better, even if you adjust by throwing out his two extra seasons. (And if you're worried about those being Halladay's worst seasons by WAR, the next two were actually worse.)

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written by Matt Ryan, December 16, 2009

EFF, I don't know how fangraphs calculates WAR for pitchers, but their logic is seriously flawed. For example, Javier Vasquez ranks higher than the likes of Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Dan Haren, etc. Take a look at the raw numbers and this is absurd.

Not trying to completely dismiss what you're saying, but fangraphs needs to revise their system.

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