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04 December 2009
According to Jon Heyman, "the Mets are not heavily involved in free-agent RHP John Lackey". As far as I'm concerned, this is good news. I wouldn't mind seeing Lackey in a Mets uniform, but I just don't think he commands a $100 million contract. His value is inflated because he happens to be the best pitcher in a weak free agent class. Lackey's best season came in 2007 when he was 19-9 with a league leading 3.01 ERA. But he has regressed slightly over the past two years, and failed to reach 200 innings in either season.
Instead, I think the Mets should turn their focus to one of Lackey's teammates- Kelvim Escobar. I know what you're thinking. Why would a team decimated by the injury bug bring in a guy who has pitched only 5 innings in the last 2 years? And that's a fair question to ask. But Escobar was a star in the making before he fell victim to shoulder surgery. If Escobar is healthy, he could be the #2 starter that the Mets desperately lack. Assuming his medical records show progress, he might be a fantastic gamble.
Sticking with the theme of buy low, I'm intrigued by Brad Penny as well. He was a complete failure in Boston, but when he returned to the national league midseason he did work. I like Penny because he throws hard and doesn't give up homeruns. He's been banged up over the last few years, but he's just 31 years old and has plenty of innings left. And with a combined 5.37 ERA over the past 2 years, he should come at a decent price.
Another guy I really like is Joel Pineiro. He is only 30 years old, and coming off the best season of his career. In 214 innings pitched, he only walked 27 batters. That is tremendous. It would be refreshing to root for a guy who actually throws strikes game in and game out. Especially if he comes at a bargain. In this market, Pineiro is one of the safest options out there.
Taking a closer look at this free agency class, it is riddled with risk. Jason Schmidt, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard. In theory, every single one of those guys could be an all-star next year. It's just a matter of making the right choice. And unfortunately the Mets don't exactly have the best track record when it comes to making these decisions.
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