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29 March 2010
In 2009, the NL East looked depleted with the Mets a dead team walking and the Braves and Marlins in rebuilding years of sorts.
Now it's 2010, everybody seems reloaded and we could be in for an awesome division race. All three runners up have a the pieces in the place to make a run at the Phillies and the champs will have their hands full holding everyone back. Let's take a look at the contenders (and the one non-contender) individually:
The Champs
The Phillies are riding high and mighty after back to back trips to the World Series, not to mention Philly's first title in a quarter century in '08. The Phillies sport arguably the best lineup in baseball, definitely in the National League. One through six presents a devastating road for any starting pitcher. Rollins-Victorino-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez is a murderous row with new-addition Polanco shoring up the back-end or potentially the two-hole. Carlos Ruiz fills in the eight spot and if he can find his playoff form for a full season, he's not to be slept on either. The Phillies problems don't lie within this offense, they reside on the defensive end, namely on the mound. Roy Halladay should dominate the NL and has Phillies fans buzzing about what he can do for the club this season. However, Brad Lidge and Cole Hamels need to return to from if there's any hope for a three peat as NL Champs, but that goes without saying. The other problem areas are the fifth starters role and the bullpen as a whole. There are worse problems to have, but in a tough division pitching problems can become gaping holes as the season moves along.
The Mess
That's the only word that can describe the Mets of 2009 -- a downright-sloppy-hide-the-children-cover-your-eyes-mess. It was a daily grind of front office madness and injury bugs biting everyone in sight and replacement player scrubs embarrassing the good name of Citi Field in its inaugural year. If you were a marquee player for the Mutts, you missed some portion, probably a significant one, of the season and/or struggled when you did play. The good part about all of your problems being injury based -- they're easily left behind. That New York Mess is over and done with in 2009, this is a new year. Wright, Beltran, Reyes and co. are all back in action and the squad is a World Series contender again! Right!?! Wrong.
Yes, last year was an abomination, however you've got to walk before you can run and the Mets need to prove a lot between April and July before we can start talking seriously about the Mets. The core of the offense coupled with Johan as the ace and K-Rod closing games is fantastic. However, what else can the team count on? This is where questions start flooding the discussion of the current Mets team. Which Jeff Francouer is going to play right field -- the failed Brave or the .300 hitting Met? Can Mike Jacobs do enough at first base? Is there a catcher on the roster worth a damn? What pitcher other than Johan can get outs, let alone wins? Tons of questions, not too many answers. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets won 70 games and I wouldn't be surprised if they won 90 and that's their main issue right now.
The Transition
2010 could be the end of everything the Braves have been for the last decade. Bobby Cox could be retiring, Chipper as well. After that, the new company will take over and it'll be Jayson Heyward's (or so they hope) show for the next decade. The Braves have got one of the best pitching staffs around and that alone should keep them in the division race. If their offense comes alive, they'll give the Phillies everything they can handle for the crown. The only thing that keeps me from being truly worried about them is the fact that they're the it team this year. Everybody's hoping on their bandwagon and picking them to win this, this, and that. And the team given that honor to begin the season, usually falls on their face. Is that a surgical, explicit breakdown of the Braves this year? Well, if you come here regularly you weren't expecting one, so you're not really disappointed anyway. I will say though, Jayson Heyward and Tommy Hanson scare the shit out of me. If they blossom into a new style Griffey and Big Unit in a few years I'll be thoroughly terrified (then again, those are two sure-fire hall of famers, that's asking a lot -- let's take it slow).
The Unknown
Anyone who tells you they know how well the Marlins are going to play in a given year is either lying or guessing or both. Ignore them, they don't have a clue. Maybe the Marlins will get hot and fight for the title. Maybe they'll flop and fight to stay out of the basement. For years they've jettisoned newly expensive young guys for more young(er) guys and started over repeatedly. For the first time a two decades they're showing people the money, namely Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, their best offensive and defensive players. Will this translate into some consistent success for a change? Most likely not. There are some good pieces in place, but a lot of questionable role players. But, if we've learning anything in the last decade, it's not to sleep on the Marlins -- they're most dangerous when you take your eye off them. They have a ton of young guys who I'm not sure I could pick out of a lineup and that's probably their plan.
The Basement
The Nationals are a team slowly moving in the right direction. Slowly, but surely they seem to be putting some useful players and parts together to field a competitive ball club. The only problem is that this isn't looking like the year that they're going to put it together and make the leap into competition. Stephen Strasburg will join the big club at some point and the organization is counting on him being the second coming and carrying the franchise into the future. If the pick (and sign) Bryce Harper in the upcoming draft, the future will brighten even more. If you haven't this years problem by now, we're spending all of our time talking about what could be in the future and not what is right now. Because the right now doesn't have a realistic chance at winning this division.
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