The Relief Pitcher Market: Beware of Dogs

Written by Mike Mariano | 11 November 2009

Just about every news and rumors site is talking about the Phillies and all the many relief pitchers that they are "in contact with" and kicking the tires on.  Most of these rumors are probably true because the Phillies are in dire need of some bullpen help. So before we talk about who the Phillies want/need, let's look at the market:

Jose Valverde

Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez/Billy Wagner

Fernando Rodney/Kiko Calero/Rafael Betancourt

J.J. Putz/Takashi Saito

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel

So that's what we're looking at in a somewhat tiered offering of what's available. A few guys are most likely out of place, but it's a starting point.  Let's work from the top, down. Valverde is without a doubt the best available relief pitcher/closer on the market. Pitching for Houston he didn't have a massive amount of opportunities but he saved 25 games and sported a 2.33 ERA.  His strike outs were down, but so were his hits allowed and home runs.  The problem with signing him is that he will assuredly want to close games and that may or may not be a definite in Philly.

Soriano, Gonzalez, & Wagner all present interesting cases.  Wagner carries the risk of coming off an injury but he pitched well in his short stint at the end of '09.  Soriano and Gonzalez both had solid seasons and are proven relievers.  I think I am down on those two because of their respective work in the closers role.  In Philly I don't think either would be a closer, so they could work.  However, they both spent significant time pitching in Atlanta, so the divisional foes all are more than comfortable facing them.  Not a big deal, but worth considering.

Fernando Rodney had an incredible '09 campaign converting 37 of 39 save chances.  However, Fernando still barely had his ERA+ over 1 (the average) and his WHIP approaced 1.5.  Rodney has always had the big time fastball and potential, however I don't think he would be a good fit in Philly.  The AL to NL certainly helps, however his price tag will be higher than his actual value because of this season's performance. Kiko Calero was great in Florida rarely giving up runs or base runners for that matter.  Calero is 34 years old, but a 2 year deal and a middle relief role would work out well. Rafael Betancourt made a solid come back from a rough '08 to pitch extremely well down the stretch for the Rockies.  He's another older guy at 34, but everybody knows in the national league you can be a relief pitcher forever.  This is another AL to NL guy too, always a good thing for pitchers.

Putz and Saito are both formerly dominant closers that are past there prime.  Saito had a solid '09 for Boston and is a much safer bet than Putz who had a horrendous '09 which ended in a surgery and the Mets not picking up his option.  I think Putz would be a phenomenal signing for the Phillies.  This is because he would come cheap and with no expectations because most Phillies fans are well aware of his shittyness this past year.  Then who knows maybe we get lucky and he rediscovers his fastball.  Couple that with the general anger that it would cause in Mets fans and I'm fully on the Putz bandwagon for next season.

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel  In the final grouping there is plenty to like because they're all experience relievers, but there's plenty not to like because guys like this bounce around like bar hoppers near the end of their careers and you never know what you're gonna get.  Of the group, I like Gregg, Grabow, and Oliver a little more than Hawkins and Dotel, but really there isn't too much to get all that excited about across the board.

So what should we expect?  Honestly not all that much.  The Phillies will most likely sign one of these guys, but it won't be a day of high-fiving, it'll be a solid, yet unspectacular addition to a championship-caliber ballclub.  I'm rooting for Calero & Putz on cost-effective deals, but who knows what we'll end up with.  A part of me thinks that we should just call up some minor league starters who don't project at the big league level as rotation guys.  More often than not, the best relievers are guys who came up as starters, we're bound to have some useful ones down on the farm.