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Ryan Howard: The $125 million dollar man

Written by Mike Mariano | 27 April 2010

Yesterday, as you must have read all about yesterday, Ryan Howard was rewarded with a 5 year, $125 million deal from the Phillies.  Here's Ryan Howard's current and next contracts, on display from Cot's Baseball Contracts:

Ryan Howard 1b
 5 years/$125M (2012-16), plus 2017 option
 signed extension with Philadelphia 4/26/10
 12:$20M, 13:$20M, 14:$25M, 15:$25M, 16:$25M, 17:$23M club option ($10M buyout) limited no-trade clause
 3 years/$54M (2009-11)
 signed extension with Philadelphia 2/8/09 (avoided arbitration, $18M-$14M)
 09:$15M, 10:$19M, 11:$20M
The reactions of this deal have been ranged from outrage, laughter, celebration, and confusion -- all of which are defensible.  Let's look into the different angles of this deal:

How the hell can you give a guy that big that much money?!? Ryan Howard's career comparable players are a list of mostly fat guys who peaked early and fell off hard and steep in their thirties.  This deal will have him making $25 million when he's 36 years old.  By the time he hits that age it's not unreasonable to think that he'll be semi-to-mostly-useless and one of the largest paperweights in baseball history.  He is skinnier than ever and in great shape, however he's relatively skinny for Ryan Howard, not for your average MLBer.  That being said, you have to like his commitment to being in good shape and playing better defense -- that projects well to the future.  Will he feel the need to lay off the BBQ with $125 million guaranteed in the bank?  We can argue that all day, but no one will know until we do.  I think that as long as the team is good, we've got nothing to worry about.  More importantly, Ryan Howard is a competitive guy who I don't see taking kindly to boo's and media bashing, so this recent backlash about his contract will only motivate him further.

He's not even the second best player on the Phillies, let alone the second best player in baseball! Many baseball pundits take their biggest gripe with this deal in that Ryan Howard isn't this good of a baseball player.  Sabermetrics hate Ryan Howard.  Okay, numbers and information don't discriminate, however the resulting analysis is not kind to the big man who would've been an unquestioned super-player a few decades ago.  He doesn't walk enough, he doesn't hit for a high enough average, his value above replacement player is steadily dropping, he can't hit lefties, the list goes on.

He's flawed, but who else can do what Ryan Howard does?!? Ryan Howard has a skill that few major leaguers have today -- he hits 45+ home runs reliably.  The Phillies may be overpaying for this skill, however this singular ability affects the lineup as a whole.  Placido Polanco and Chase Utley see better pitches because you don't want two guys on when Ryan Howard comes to bat.  The team as a whole can play confidently down any deficit knowing that they have a guy like Ryan Howard who's one swing away from tying the game or putting them right back into it.  Also and possibly most importantly for the front office, the city likes Ryan Howard.  He sells tickets -- lots of them.  Not by himself by any means, the team is one of the best in the national league, however he's a draw.  You can afford some extra money on top of the deal for a guy that the fans like.  Maybe not ten million more, but a few.

We overpaid, but who doesn't these days?!? When was the last time that a superstar signed a deal where everyone sat back and said: "Wow, total bargain! How'd that happen?".  Sure guys sign for hometown discounts sometimes (CHASE!) but largely, the push it to the limit.  Who's to say that in five years, the economy hasn't turned upward, and guys aren't making $30-35 million a year?  Also, it's a fact of life that aging superstars often become deadweight at the end of their respective careers.  Is it a good business decision to throw that kind of money around and say "ah, it happens" no, however it has become near-commonplace in professional sports today.  The key is to hope that your superstar can give you as much elite-level play as possible and ride it out.  At least that's what Ruben Amaro is hoping.  Let's hope this deal makes him look like a genius and doesn't get him fired.
Added by Benny B.

Like Mike said, you guys overpaid, but who doesn't these days for a proven player? Unless you are the Athletics or the Rays who consistently develop home grown talent, you pay for what a player has done, not what he will do.

What I would like to know, is just how this massive amount of money for one player is going to affect future moves by the Phillies. There was a ton of ink written on how the Phillies are already over budget with the Doc signing. Does this mean Shame Victorino is a goner? Hamels?  Dare I say....Utley?

According to Recliner GM, The Phills have about a $125MM payroll in 2010 (however, because it was written last year, this doesn't take into account Polanco or other bone-head signings like Schneider). Forgetting all the reports that say they will cut payroll next year, lets just assume that it will be around the same going forward the next few years. Doc is getting 20MM a year for potentially the next 4 years. Howard 20-25MM annually for the next 6 years.  Utley is due 15MM for the next 2 years, and he is sure to get a raise when his current contract is up.  So lets assume he'll get around 20MM.

So starting in 2013,  there is a good chance that 3 players will consume OVER HALF of the payroll.  Something will have to be sacrificed; be it popular players, the caliber of players that are signed in the future, or the payroll budget itself.  And if they do raise the payroll, the Phillies will be entering Mets/Red Sox territory.  Nevertheless, that is a whole lotta eggs to be putting in one basket and a serious gamble by the Phillies front office.  Phills win another championship, no one will be talking about this.  But if they don't or one of those guys has a career changing injury, the Phillies could be hamstrung for a long, long time.

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