Jayson Werth's Big PayDay

Written by Mike Mariano | 23 February 2010

At the end of this season, Ruben Amaro is going to be under the gun.  Jayson Werth established himself as one of the Phillies best players last season and he becomes a free agent.  If Jay puts together a season similar to his outstanding work in 2009, this pay day will be a big one.  Werth is a four tool player who does all four of those things exceptionally: hit for power, play defense, steal bases, and throw from the outfield.  That fifth tool (batting average) isn't a strong suit of his, but it's not so mediocre as to be detrimental to the ball club.

Werth started his career as a promising young outfielder drafted by the Orioles, immediately traded to the Blue Jays and moved again after a few stints in the bigs to the Dodgers.  A 6'5" lanky outfielder who projected with plus-power and good speed, Jay was derailed by wrist injuries throughout his time in LA.  The Phillies signed him in 2007 to platoon in the outfield and by 2008 he'd taken the position from Geoff Jenkins on a full-time basis.  In '09, well you know all about the career year that the Wolfman put together.  In 2010, now 31, Werth will earn himself a huge contract on the market if he continues his improved play.  Another 36 homer, 20 stolen base season will all but cement a contract well above the 3 year, $30 million that Raul signed last offseason.  Matt Holliday money is a little aggressive for the big right fielder because this will only be his second full season as a starter, but the money will be big and presumably, long as well.

Jayson Werth took questions about his future recently and here is some insight on the comment and situation:

MLBTR: Andy Martino of the Philadelphia Inquirer was part of the group questioning Werth about the future today.  Asked if he sees himself as comparable to Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, Werth said he feels he's "a season away from something like that."  Keep in mind that 2009 was the only time Werth reached 500 plate appearances in his seven-year career.

Werth says he's only had very preliminary talks with the Phillies about an extension.  He wants to stay, and deferred to his agent when asked if he'd negotiate in-season.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr. raised the topic a month ago, saying "there will be some difficult decisions down the road."

It seems feasible that Werth will exceed the three-year, $30MM range occupied by Raul Ibanez and Milton Bradley the previous offseason.  Werth has advantages over both players, and given a strong 2010 he should be able to command four or five years at at least $12MM per.

Hardball Talk: Cliff Lee had "preliminary" talks with the Phillies too. He was shipped out of town, like, a week later.  I don't think that Werth will get the same treatment -- he's quite popular in Philly and it's not like the Phillies can just go out and grab the a rightfield equivalent of Roy Halladay to take his place -- but it's going to be a little complicated.

My guess: Philly will look to lock him up with some sort of backloaded deal in which the real money kicks in after Raul Ibanez's, Brad Lidge's and maybe even Ryan Howard's money comes off the books in 2012.

My guess?  The Wolfman ends up leaving town after a deal can't be done in house.  I'll be sad when he goes, but if Domonic Brown plays well and Raul doesn't need an AARP card by the end of 2010, Jayson Werth might end up being the odd man out.