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Finally, something in the Phillies universe to talk about. I don't know about you guys, but top 25 moments lists and recaps of last season aren't all that interesting. If the people want them, I will supply them, otherwise we will continue with relevant things to talk about. Today, we've got some comments from Ruben Amaro Jr. (our GM, if you didn't know that, leave now) included in a piece by Ken Rosenthal:
But right now, no team is more settled than the Phillies through 2011. In fact, the Phillies are so settled — and so expensive — that Amaro is not entirely kidding when he says he eventually might need to “disband” the roster.
The Phillies, according to the Cot’s Baseball Contracts web site, already have $132.4 million committed to 15 players in 2011— which, if you’re keeping score, is the season after this one.
Disband is a very strong word, however the point remains, this Phillies team is getting older and more expensive by the minute. If at some point the teams hits a major block in the road and falters, disbanding is not far out of the question.
“The payroll can’t continue to go north,” Amaro says. “When you get to a point where you’re basically at 100 percent capacity in your ballpark and 100 percent capacity almost in your revenues, somewhere it’s got to stop. I’m not crying poverty by any means. But at some point you have to be cognizant of where things are going.”
The Phillies have never been a "big market" team in the classic sense of the word. Yes, Philly is a big market, but the team only recently began to spend as such. The ownership isn't going to continue on a Mark Cuban/George Steinbrenner-like path to fiscal insanity. The road levels off and drops somewhere, most likely right where it is now around $110-130 million.
The choice, then, came down to this:
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One year of Lee, mediocre prospects for Blanton and the prospect of gaining two draft picks if Lee departed as a free agent or . . .
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Three years of Blanton and three better prospects for Lee.
Not so clear-cut, is it?
Especially not when, in Amaro’s view, the draft picks were less valuable than they appeared.
“Lee is likely to sign with a high-payroll club,” Amaro says. “If we get that pick, it could be somewhere between 25 and 30. That’s the first pick.
“...You’re not looking at slam dunks. You get after the 10th or 15th pick in baseball, you’re kind of rolling the dice... Plus, those guys that we’re drafting may not get to the big leagues for four, five or six years. They are so much further away.
“The whole scenario of ‘Let’s just go for broke and pick up the draft picks and that’s fine,’ that doesn’t serve the purpose of what we’re trying to do, which is put ourselves in a position to win every year.
"We’re going to have to start filtering in younger players for some of the guys who become less productive as they get older.”
Ruben is absolutely in his long-term assessment of the franchise (phew, otherwise we'd be in trouble), but I think he fails to see the ceiling a Lee/Halladay/Hamels team creates. Does talent directly lead to a championship? Hell no. But when you have a chance to distance yourself by such a wide margin, at such a low cost, don't you have to do it?
Yes, there needs to be young players to bridge the gap between retiring and diminishing players. And yes, the prospects we'd receive via draft may take 4 or 5 years from making the big club, but isn't that about the time we'd really need them. 4 or 5 years in when the Utley's and Howard's and Werth's are going to gone or on their way out. Why do we need a stocked farm system today? It's always good to have one, but there's a window where we're not exactly calling up blue-chippers because there's no room on the big club, right now.
Amaro says he would prefer to simply keep Howard “forever,” adding, “we have a little bit of time to deal with that.” But for the Phillies to retain Werth – or find a comparable right-handed hitter – something will have to give.
Things may look very different in Philly starting in 2011. Namely, the Ryan Howard negotiations could get messy and there are plenty of scenarios where we lose the big man. However, it is nice to see Amaro paying him his due respect and we can rest assured that the organization does in fact value him long-term.
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