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Lidge escapes by the hair on his chinny-chin chin

Written by Mike Mariano | 27 July 2010

Brad Lidge has a specifc plan in mind when he takes the mound.  Step one, get the first guy out.  Step two, load the bases.  Step three, work from there.  And some how in 2010, that hasn't blown up in his face... yet.  Hitters are 0-4 in four plate appearances when hitting against Lidge with the bases loaded.  In any other scenario, hitters fare significantly better, if not significantly well against Lights Out Lidge.  Just look at this mess of a table.

Split PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB BB SO BA OBP SLG GDP HBP SH SF IBB
RISP 40 33 11 10 2 0 3 1 6 8 .303 .410 .636 1 0 1 0 3
--- 42 36 1 7 3 0 1 0 6 13 .194 .310 .361 0 0 0 0 0
Men On 48 40 11 12 2 0 3 3 7 12 .300 .404 .575 1 0 1 0 3
1-- 8 7 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 4 .286 .375 .286 0 0 0 0 0
-2- 18 16 6 6 1 0 2 0 1 2 .375 .412 .813 0 0 1 0 0
--3 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 0 .500 .667 .750 0 0 0 0 1
12- 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 .250 .400 .250 1 0 0 0 0
1-3 4 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 .250 .250 1.000 0 0 0 0 0
-23 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 .000 .667 .000 0 0 0 0 2
123 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
on 1st, lt 2 out 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 .000 .125 .000 1 0 0 0 0
on 3rd, lt 2 out 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 .333 .600 .333 0 0 0 0 1
on 3rd, 2 out 12 10 4 2 1 0 1 0 2 2 .200 .333 .600 0 0 0 0 2
Generated 7/27/2010.

It's pretty simple, as long as Lidge can successfully load the bases without relinquishing the lead in the meantime, we're good.  Otherwise, once a guy reaches base, shit's about to hit the fan.  Look at the OBP and SLG percentages in that table.  If you're up against Lidge with any runners on (without the bases being loaded of course) take a hack!  Chances are you're going to do some damage.  Also, you have to consider that the percentages for a runner on first and for runners on first and second are so low because everyone bunts in those scenarios to better your chances of getting a run.  The table would look even worse than it does now because he's a closer and you're so often playing for only a run or two.

The longstanding stance in Philly has been "I don't care what it looks like, just get the job done" and I've never seen a pitcher take that to heart like Lidge does.  In 2008, when Lidge was perfect, he epitomized that mantra.  He pitched with men all over the base paths, but somehow some way escaped unscathed.  In 2009, when Lidge couldn't get anyone out, he basically just blew saves at every opportunity.  Now, in 2010 he's somewhere in between.  Never a dull moment when Ol' 51 takes the mound.

So how 'bout them Phils?  Lidge is getting saves, the offense is scratching runs, the team is winning games.  Five in a row now and a four-game sweep to boot.  Instead of pissing games away, they're finding ways to win, sometimes even getting lucky.  Joe Blanton came out and pitched a hell of a game after a shaky first inning and the bullpen has been strong as of late.  4.5 games back and charging by the day, the Phillies are finally playing baseball.

Why isn't Ryan Howard batting third?

Written by Mike Mariano | 26 July 2010

It's no secret that Ryan Howard is the best hitter on the Phillies right now.  Granted, the stats show that overall he isn't the best player on the squad at most times and was drastically overpaid, however you can't take away the cold-hard fact that when Ryan Howard get hot, he's one of the top players in the game.  Once a year, the switch flips and Ryan Howard literally puts the team on his back for a month or two and carries the team.  Right now, we're in the middle of one of those stretches.

So why then does Charlie Manuel have a carousel of players rotating in the third spot of the batting order?  Chase Utley is out injured and the Jayson Werth/Raul Ibanez combo is struggling.  Ryan Howard has hit fourth in every single game this season and for the large majority of his career.  The reason I ask now is because moving him up that one spot will afford Ryan Howard of more at-bats over the duration of weeks, months, a season and he's the only guy hitting the ball.  Make that, killing the ball.  Doesn't having him at-bat more help the team?

Instead of putting Polanco or Ibanez in the role and creating an addition spot ahead of him in the lineup, let him bat third and take advantage of the fact that he's an extra base hit and RBI machine right now.  How often have we scored lately without his direct contribution?  So I'll take the potentially extra guy off base once or twice to try and get the big man an extra at-bat late in the game.  Game on the line, two outs and two on in the ninth -- our three hitters coming up.   Do we want Ryan Howard hitting?  Or Placido Polanco? Obviously you can spin that fnial scenario however you'd like, but I don't like the possibility Polanco or Ibanez making the final out with Ryan Howard on deck, when we should be maximizing his at-bats within all realistic boundaries (for example, he should never bat lead-off)

Just a thinking point while you're watching the Phillies/Rockies today.  It's 3-2 Phillies in the third as of now and Joe Blanton's got some settling in to do before I can get comfortable.  You've got to love the bottom of the order stepping up and plating some runs though.  Stay tuned, five straight is on the line today and Atlanta doesn't play.  Let's gain that half game.

New Phillies Podcast talking Trade Dealine

Written by Mike Mariano | 26 July 2010

Yesterday morning I joined Rich over at FightinPhillies in his podcast about the Phillies going into the Trade Dealine.  I have yet to hear it, but I'm hoping I came out of it sounded fairly intelligent.  The host and Jen, from Phillies Phollowers, had experience on their side and did a nice job on their end.  Check it out if you've got some time.  Follow the link to Rich's site above to hear the Podcast.  Enjoy (I hope).

The Winning Continues, Four Straight

Written by Mike Mariano | 26 July 2010

Despite rain, rain, and more rain, the Phillies perservered to steal a win yesterday. Last night's game was not one that the Phillies would've won earlier this month.  The bullpen would've collapsed or the offense wouldn't have been able to scratch the winning runs across.  Instead they got it done and managed to win their fourth straight.  Even better the Braves and Mets both lost bringing the Phils to within five of the division's top spot and two and a half above the Mets who're only a half game out of fourth.

J.A. Happ made his first start since April.  Trade suitors from all over the league were at the game to judge his recovery.  The young starter didn't disappoint going five innings and looking strong in his work.  He did allow three runs and walk four, but he only let up four hits in his five innings.  From there Durbin, Contreras, Romero & Lidge combined to close out the game with shut-out effort out of the bullpen.  In typical Lidge fashion it wasn't easy - he loaded the bases with two walks a hit - but in the end he got K's for all three outs and the save.

It took a nice break for the Phillies to come out on top.  After Jimmy Rollins plated Wilson Valdez with a single to left (and taking second base on an misplay by Carlos Gonzalez), he stole third, then scored on a wild pitch with Jayson Werth at the bat.  You've got to take the luck where you can get it.  The other offense came from a Ben Francisco bomb early in the second inning.

If the Phillies are truly back, we shall see with Joe Blanton on the mound.  He's in the middle of easily his worst season to date and the Phillies will continue to struggle if guys like him can't turn it around.  The team has momentum and should be riding high after four straight, the pieces are all in place for Joe to get it back in gear.

J.A. Happ showcasing himself to trade market today

Written by Mike Mariano | 25 July 2010

Today will be J.A. Happ's third start of the year and his first one since April.  More importantly than the outcome of the game, Happ will be on showcase to all trade suitors.  Happ has been rumored to be part of a few different deals and is a valuable piece as a young, MLB ready pitcher.

If Happ comes out and deals today, it could go a long way towards the Phillies upgrading for a top of the line starter.

Also be on the look out, I recorded a podcast today with Rich from FightinPhillies and as soon as he finalizes it I'll send over the link so you can listen in on my oracle-genius-messiah-like conversational input.

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