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Last night Pedro went a near flawless 7 innings and outdueled Tim Lincecum who dominates much of the Majors, especially the Phillies when he comes to town.  Before that, Cole Hamels has had back-to-back starts of dominance.  Cliff Lee has been tremendous in his time as a Phillie.  J.A. Haap has had a very, very good year as a rookie and has blossomed as a starter.  Joe Blanton has been more than solid from the start of the season until now.  Brad Lidge is... getting there.  So with an actual pitching staff and bullpen in tact, are the Phillies the team to beat in the NL?

As defending World F. Champs, the Phillies automatically the team to beat but that doesn't necessarily make them the the best team in the entire league.  However, on this particluar team there is no shortage of offense.  There is no shortage of defense either.  The only question mark is the pitching and things are looking great lately.  Everybody is firing on all cylinders and as a whole it makes the Phillies extremely tough to beat.  The reason the Phillies won the World Series in '08 was directly resultant in an overachieving pitching staff from the starters to the relievers.  And by overachievers I mean better than popular opinion suggested.  If the staff can put it together again this year and really approve that they are that talented than the Phillies will make another serious run the World Series title.

Pedro's start last night cemented the fact that the Phillies aren't a one and done team.  That's not to say that they'll absolutely win this World Series, but they will make it a dangerous road for anytime team trying to get past them.

Cole HamelsThat's two consecutive dominant starts for Cole Hamels and frankly, I can't remember if we've been able to say that before this point all season.  Another sad, but true fact is that this is yet another quality start against a poor offensive team.  Not just a bad offensive team, but Pablo Sandoval, Bengie Molina, Nate Schuerholz, Freddy Sanchez, and Fred Lewis didn't play.  However now that we're past all the downsides, it was a fantastic start for Cole.  I was at last night's game and Cole dominated from start to finish and he should have.  That's the most important part of the game, that he should have shut them out and he did.

The change-up was absolutely filthy from the first batter.  He had the Giants hitters taking defensive swings all game and there were less than a handful of hard hit balls.  The first pitch change-up had hitter after hitter completely baffled.  Eli Whiteside and Ryan Rohlinger were so far in over their heads I felt bad for them.  Juan Uribe had no chance.  It was a dominant start and great to see from our struggling Ace.  It must have been a frustrating day for Jonathan Sanchez because he pitched a great game in the six innings he threw.  He only allowed one run on three hits and three walks, but K'd eight Phillies.  He got a lot of silly swings and blew fastballs by guys up and down the lineup.

Offensively, the Phillies played perfect small-ball to score their lone run.  Shane Victorino smacked a hit and subsequently stole second.  With no outs, Chase gave himself up to advance the runner to third and bring Howard to the plate.  Rhyno then got to hit with the infield in which must have been a joke compared to the shifts he usually sees.  The newfound holes all over the field allowed Howard to hit a double down the line scoring Shane easily.  Small ball 101.  Other than Howard's second double, that's really all of the interesting offense of the day.  Jay Werth looked absolutely lost and Raul didn't look much better.  Jonathan Sanchez works the effectively wild card pretty well, so we'll see how they fare against Brad Penny in game two of the series tonight.

Ryan HowardAugust ended yesterday and so did a torrid month from Ryan Howard.  The Rhyno hit .299 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs, even adding a triple for good measures.  None of the other months were particularly terrible for the big man, however August was easily the best month that Howard has had this season.  And it should be no surprise to anyone reading this blog that this has become a Ryan Howard staple in his career thus far.  Check out his splits for his career in July (this year wasn't great, but it usually is), August & September:

July:  .296/.401/.591, 39 HR

August:  .286/.374/.584, 44 HR

September:  .317/.435/.716, 44 HR

Seeing as Rhyno's August was in line-with his career averages, we should be looking forward to a HUGE September.  But why?  There's got to be a reason that in his career, Howard is hitting .255/.342/.537 in the first half and .302/.409/.638.  Let's look at some possible reasons for these numbers:

  • Ryan is a hot-climate guy who heats up as the summer does.
  • Watching the Mets fade down the stretch gives him Hulk like powers.
  • His depth-perception is so poor that it takes him half a season to get used to seeing pitchers.
  • There is a strange fruit that is the source of his power, but is seasonal and Howard can't get until late summer.
  • Wind currents change after June across the nation and blow his outs into hits.
  • He needs to have a good sweat going and the summer humidity helps that.
  • He's intentionally coasting until the team needs him.
  • His pants don't fit, they stretch better in the summer.
  • Long-sleeved shirts and under-armour sap his power.
  • Howard draws his power from the summer solstice on June 29th, but it runs out on the winter solstice, until he can repower in the next go around.
  • After using the first-half as a scouting tool, he can surgically attack the shifts played against him to better find holes.
  • Being a kid at heart, he plays better when school ends and there are more kids at the ballpark.
  • Patriotism wills Ryan Howard to become a better player after July 4th.

If none of those things cover it, well then I just can't crack the case.  But more seriously, Ryan Howard spends the first half of every year making everyone wonder if he's really that good, then tears up the second half and reminds why you thought he was the man in the first place.

As far as what the real answer is, I think it's got something to do with that 3rd bullet point.  The farther the season goes, Howard begins to zero in and learn and it hitting simply becomes easier for him.  In my own baseball playing experience, it's simple the more you stand in against live pitchers, the quicker you get comfortable in there.  That sounds silly and obvious, but in Howard's case it might just be everything.

Howard is a guess-hitter and slow starter.  I'm going to venture that it takes most hitters much, much less time to get up to 100% than Rhyno.  For instance, Chase Utley seems like the type that shows and is the man immediately.  The fact that Howard is such a slow starter only lends credence to how good of a player that he is.  The second half stats are the stats that Ryan should produce, however he just takes much longer than the average player find his groove.

So beware Mets fans now that you know the only thing stopping Howard from mashing start to finish is a little bit more preseason.  Somebody call Ruben Amaro, it's all so simple.

Last 13 games: 9 HRs, 25 RBIs (via Zolecki’s twitter)

(sorry for the quick post, I’m driving home 10 hours today from vacation. And I wrote this after Ryan Howard’s first two at-bats of last night’s game, so they may be wrong.)

image Last night Hamels went eight strong, striking out seven and allowing zero against the Pirates.  It was his first start over 6 innings in a month and his first game striking out more than six in that same time period.  In a bit of tough luck, Madson blew the save and Hamels didn’t get the win, but it was a solid and much needed outing nonetheless. 

Problems?  Well, it was against the Pirates.  Currently Hamels is 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA on the season and let’s look at a rundown of Hamels’ starts where he has gone 7+ innings this season:

Aug. 26 – PIT: 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 7 K

Jul. 28 – ARI: 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 9 K

Jul. 23 – SD: 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 6 K

Jul. 6 – CIN: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 8 K

Jun. 21 – BAL: 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 10 K

Jun. 4 – LAD: 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 5 K

May 14 – LAD: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 9 K

So over this season, Hamels has 7 starts of 7 IP or more.  To put that in perspective, our other (or only the way Cole has been pitching) ace, Cliff Lee, has 5 starts of 7 IP or more since joining the Phillies and he’s only pitched 5 games in that span!  On the year Cliff Lee has 19 starts of 7 IP or more!  Also, look at the teams Cole recorded those games against: Pittsburgh, Arizona, San Diego, Cincinnati, Baltimore & Los Angeles (twice).  The Dodgers starts are great, however those were 3 months ago.  Otherwise, he hasn’t had a start like that against a team with a winning percentage over .430.

Now don’t take this as some wild “Cole Hamels sucks” rant.  Cole’s a season removed from a World Series MVP and dominant playoff performance, he didn’t magically fall off the face of the earth.  However, as much as I’ve tried to deny it, Cole is not good right now.  At least not nearly good enough.  I’m in the camp of, “who cares, as long as we make the playoffs” at this point.  Because if he dominates in the playoffs again, then frankly, I don’t give a shit how he pitched in the regular season to get there.  But, the way he has pitched against non-terrible opponents this season doesn’t leave a lot to be excited about.

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