Mets Season Could Hinge on Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez

Written by Matt Ryan | 29 December 2009

As much as I want to see the Mets add a big bat for left field, the team's biggest issue is clearly starting pitching.  Every pitcher not named Johan Santana is a huge question mark heading into 2010.  And so far, the Mets have done nothing to address this problem.  I still maintain that Joel Pineiro is the best fit for the Mets because you know exactly what to expect from him.  It's hard to imagine him being the 4.8 WAR pitcher he was last year without Dave Duncan.  But he will eat innings and throw strikes.  He has had an up and down career, but it's quite possible that he's turned the corner thanks to his improved two seam fastball.  To me, the team's first priority should be to bring Pineiro in on a 3 year deal.

That being said, even if the Mets add a reliable middle of the rotation guy, it's time for the trio of Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez to step up.  They have all achieved major league success in the past, and they each possess the potential to excel in 2010.  It's just a matter of whether they can be consistent.  For example, look at the recent success of these relatively young pitchers.

Mike Pelfrey (2008): 13-11, 3.72 ERA, 200.2 IP, 110 K, 3.0 WAR, age 24

John Maine (2007): 15-10, 3.92 ERA, 191 IP, 180 K, 2.7 WAR, age 26

Oliver Perez (2007): 15-10, 3.56 ERA, 177 IP, 174 K, 2.2 WAR, age 25

It's obviously a pipe dream to see all three guys return to form, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.  The funny thing is, looking at the numbers of previous seasons, I think all three guys are obvious victims of the Verducci effect.  And in the case of Maine and Perez, sunsequent injuries.  Have these guys simply peaked at a young age only to never be the same?  Absolutely possible.  But it's also possible that these guys have it in them to perform in 2010, and this would give the Mets a strong rotation.

I think the biggest sleeper is John Maine.  He hasn't been particularly bad the past two years, he has just struggled to stay healthy.  His biggest problem is obviously his lack of an out pitch.  And he remains a five inning pitcher.  But if he could somehow develop a strong offspeed pitch, I think Maine would be a very solid #2 starter.

This is also a big season for Mike Pelfrey.  It's a well known fact that the third full season is critical for starting pitchers.  Look at what Grienke was able to do last year.  I'm not saying Pelfrey is destined for greatness, but he does have the talent to be a top of the rotation guy.  Most people insist that he is a head case, but I don't buy it.  I think he took a major step back last year and it got to him.  But a lot of weird things happened last year that are almost hard to even explain.  He definitely has the talent.

The only guy I really don't have much confidence in is Perez.  He actually was not a bad pitcher for the Mets until last year, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his knee.  But I think his confidence is rattled, and his chances of returning to form are slim.  Apparently he has been training hard in Arizona all offseason, but I'll believe it when I see it.  Hopefully he can prove me wrong.

To me, the Mets success in 2010 weighs heavily on these three guys.  Maybe someone like Jon Niese will step up and take the pressure off of Perez.  But that would be a lot to expect.  As far as I'm concerned all three of these guys have the ability to form a strong rotation, its just a matter of putting it all together.