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3-7 Miasma

Written by Benny B. | 17 April 2010

Yesterday, I started the day off by breaking my poor little pinky toe, then painfully throwing out my back, and then capping the night off with Mets loss.  Not a good day for I.  It's painful for me to type right now so I'll keep it brief.

The mets are 3-7 and while the whole baseball world is burying them only 10 games into the season, there have been some real positives and differences in their style of play.  However, the Mets have also exhibited some of the same follishness that lost them so many games last year as well.  So here are some of the Pro's and Con's after 10 games.

PROS:

  • The Starting Pitching has been acceptable, and in some cases surprising.  Big Pelf finally looks like he is putting it together with 3 straight great outings.  He has added a new splitter that coupled with his hard sinker and 4 seamer is totally baffling hitters.  Jon Neise had an up and down 2 first starts.  None translated into wins, but he looks focused.  Technically he is still a Rookie, so he gets a little slack for learning on the job.  I like his potential and could be the Mets #3 starter for many years to come.  And Ollie Perez.  Ollie, Ollie Ollie.  He looked like Johan last night locked into a real pitchers duel with Carpenter going 6.1 innings (the first time he went over 6 innings in two years).  His velocity is down about 3-4 MPH, but that appears to have been the plan:  Sacrifice some of the speed for more control.  And thats what he showed last night.  He was up & down and In & out with his pitches all night.  He looked focused and controlled.  I hope this is the beginning of good things from Ollie, and not the good start/bad start Ollie we all know.  The last pitcher is John Maine who I am really worried about.  I think he is a head case, and he is in trouble.  Lets hope these other solid pitching performances inspire him...otherwise he should be sent to the minors
  • The Relief pitching has also been stellar aside from a couple of recent hicups...but I don't blame the pitchers (more of this in the cons section).  The new additions add many different looks that the Mets have not had in a while; particularly Japanese imports Tak & Iggy.  Since there are a lot of new faces, the scouting has not caught up to them yet.  We'll see how they fair a couple months from now.
  • There are fight in these Mets.  While it has not translated into wins, the mets have staged multiple late inning comebacks including scroring 2 runs in the 9th last night.  I like that this group isn't laying down.  If they can keep their confidence up through this rough patch, eventually it will equate to some comeback wins.
  • Defense all around looks like it is improving.  D-Wright made web-gem like plays last night as did Frenchy.

CONS:

  • Jason Bay is not right.  He is pressing and it shows.  While he has hit in almost every game, they are weak hits.  I am not worried about him.  He will snap out of it eventually...he is too good of a hitter not to.  However, if Jason Bay was hitting like Jason Bay these past 10 games, our record would be a lot better than it is today.
  • The Mets are still running themselves out of innings.  It happened in Thursday's game when Wright came up to bat with no outs and two men on, and by the time his at bat ended with a strikeout, the inning was over as those two men on base were each caught stealing.  It also happened in yesterdays game, and if it wasn't for a defensive mishap, it would have resulted in an out as well.  If I haven't seen this before I would just chalk it up to early season rust.  But it isn't.  This is a problem that needs to be corrected.
  • Jose Reyes--regardless of what he says--is not 100% yet.  I would say he is 80-85%.  He is not running at full speed and his arm is not throwing at full speed.  We saw two examples of this yesterday when he was thrown out on an infield dribbler he usually beats out, and when he failed to gun down a runner which sparked the 8th inning rally for the Cards.  Nevertheless, I am not worried about him either.  One can't expect someone to be out of baseball for almost a year without any rust.  I would say give him a few more weeks and we should start seeing the Jose of old.  The good news is that he is hitting.
  • And the biggest CON that I see is a continuation of last year...only this time the excuse "I don't have the players" can not be used: Jerry Manuel is NOT putting his team in the best position to win.  Over the last few years in sabermetric circles there is the idea of "High Leverage" situations.  In short, it says you should use your best pitcher when the situation calls for it; So if your closer is your best pitcher and the bases are loaded in a 1 run game in the 8th, you bring your closer in in the 8th not the 9th.  I won't fault Jerry for not bring in K-Rod in the 8th after Nieve hit and walked a batter to load the bases (that after getting ahead of each hitter 0-2); not many managers employ this strategy.  But I will fault him for bringing in arguably the WORST pitcher on the staff in a super high leverage situation.  Valdes was only activated after Green went on the DL.  HE HAS NO BUSINESS BEING IN THAT SPOT!  Felicano was unavailable due to sickness.  But there was another lefty available in Tak, who is much farther up on the depth charts...and he is just the other lefty.  I am sick of the idea that the lefty-lefty, righty-righty matchup must be followed blindly.  Mejia & Iggy are throwing 95-97 MPH darts out there with sick movement.  They are certainly better options than what is clearly your worst option.  Full disclosure: some have said that Ollie should have stayed in there to finish the 7th.  But I don't have any problem with Jerry pulling him there.  But that was a horrible horrible decision Jerry.  For shame...

Ok, off to ice my toe and heat my back.  Santana goes today, and when Johan pitches you expect to win....so I am wondering how the Mets are going to blow this one.  I kid, I kid.  But seriously, if they Mets don't find a way to win both of these next to games to salvage this road trip, Jerry may find a Red Card in his locker when he returns....and in all honesty, that is not a bad thing.  I am perfectly willing to sacrifice these next two games if it means Jerry is replaced by a manager who puts my team in the best position to win.

Why the Long Faces in Flushing?

Written by Mike Mariano | 12 April 2010

sad mr. metI've been fairly busy this past week, so I haven't gotten to watch as much of this opening week of baseball as I would've liked.  That being sad, what is going on Mets-ville?  From the rundown of sports blogs and news articles I've browsed this morning, all hell is breaking loose in Flushing:

Santana is Flushing away his talent
Santana struggles, Mets hit rock bottom
Mets Unprepared After Months Of Preparation
New Year, Same Mets

If I'm not mistaken, and I frequently am not, we're only seven games into the season.  Granted, the Mets are 2-4 and have lost 4 of their last 5, but who cares! So there's some ribbing going on at the water cooler?  Get over it.  Seasons are not won and lost in April, if the Mets are truly a great team (like I'd been hearing all winter) then a slow start should be but a blip on the radar.

I'm sure not all Mets fans share this "always say die" or maybe "very quickly say die" attitude, but it's kind of embarrassing.  And that's coming from me, a Phillies fan.  In Philadelphia, we pronounce the Eagles dead long before the math does and when the Phillies suck we're not shy about telling them so. However, it's April 12th and Mets fans are looking like the awkward guy at the party who can't take a joke.  So if you're a Mets fan and level headed during this little rough patch, please announce yourself because your fellow compadres need some guidance.

Added by Benny B.

Here's my point of view...and I am an optimistic Mets fan.

It is true that pennants are not won in April.  However, this goes back to the whole "September games are more important than April Games" argument we had last year.  ALL these games count. All the loses that could have been wins add up and can cost a trip to the postseason (see 2007 & 2008 Mets seasons).  Mets fans--like me--are not booing an individual player like Santana or Wright (I would never boo them anyway).  What has finally become crystal clear even to the most optimistic fans is that our team is not being managed properly.  In other words, they are not putting our team in the best position to win.

It is Omar's job to get the players, and he has received a lot of flack the last couple of year...as he should: The Castillo Deal, Ollie Perez deal, etc.  There are a lot of bad deals that he has made that overshadow and outweigh the good ones (Yes, he has made good ones).  While Jerry gets a pass for the players on his roster, it is HIS JOB to put field those players that gives them the best chance to win....and he is flat out not doing his job.  Every time he pencils in Mike Jacobs & GMJ in the starting lineup, he is not doing his job.  Jacobs was cut by the worst team in the AL last year, and somehow was batting cleanup for the Mets the first series?  GMJ has gotten the nod over Pagan while Angel is a superior baseball player in every way. Yesterday, GMJ came up to bat with runners in scoring position 4 times, and 4 times he ended the inning and a potential rally.

It's not the players that we are venting our frustration on.  It's not their fault they suck as baseball players.  Evaluating talent, and utilizing new sabermetrical tools in place of "the gut" is what the Mets lack.  Johan Santana, Jason Bay & K-Rod are easy to evaluate.  They are stars.  It's forming a well rounded roster with role players that can step up in the event of injuries, and can contribute better than the replacement lever player that make the difference. When players like Nelson Figeroa get released & Chris Carter sent to AAA; Or Jesus Flores and Darren O'Day left unprotected last year, you can't help but see a pattern of bad decisions. There are many teams littered with valuable talent the Mets have discarded.  This is what has become intolerable.  This is why we "Boo".  This is why Mets fans don't spend $100+ to go to games (regardless of the whether), when they can watch it on TV (or not watch at all).

So yes, it is early.  There is plenty of time for this team to turn it around.  But the Mets could very easily be 4-2 (and should at least be 3-3).  Until the best players are put on field, until the GMJ experiment is ended, until Jacobs role is limited to power bat off the bench (or cut entirely), expect more of the same.  I have watched the Mets under the Omar era for a long time now, and the only way these changes are going to happen is from the top down.  That means Omar & Jerry need to go.  Go Mets...

2-2 Braindroppings

Written by Benny B. | 09 April 2010

The Mets are 2-2 thus far in this infant season of 2010.  Here are some random thoughts over the past 4 days.  If you think this is a copout post because I am too lazy to formualate my usual well thought out, pun-ie posts....your right.

 

  • The starting pitching through 4 games has been...solid!  Aside from John Maine's outing, every other pitcher has shown flashes of dominance.  Johan is Johan, and will be a better Johan once he shakes off the rust from offseason surgery.  Jon Neise looks like he has no ill effects from his horrible hamstring tear.  His pitches were hit a little hard at times, but only gave up three runs and kept the team in the game.  I am excited about him.  And Big Pelf looked outstanding tonight featuring a new split-finger fastball.  If he can continue to throw that pitch for strikes, he may finally harness that #2/#1 starter potential was projected.  Now the biggest question mark is Ollie.  I don't know why, but I am strangely confident that he is going to have a good game.  I don't like that felling...
  • The bullpen has been even better than the starting pitching. Nieve became the first Met ever to pitch in 4 straight games and appears to have solidified the 8th inning setup role.  He has sick movement on his pitches.  Japanese imports "Tak" Takahashi & "Iggy" Igariashi have also had mostly impressive debuts.  Iggy is the power pitcher and Tak is the multi-pitch having control pitcher.  And the young Jenry Mejia who throws 4 pitches whilst sporting a 99 MPH fastball has also been impressive after shaking the butterflies off.  And of course the "Perpetual" Pedro Feliciano & Closer K-Rod are perfect thus far.
  • The Offense has been up and down, but once Jerry realizes that Mike Jacobs has no business in the starting lineup, and GMJ should no be starting over Angel Pagan (even if that means abandoning the showcasing of GMJ's "talents" for what ever sucker team that would take him) I think this is going to be a potent offense...and thats not even taking into account Jose Reyes & Carlos Beltran's return.  They scored 7, 6, 1 & 8 runs in each of their first 4 games.
  • Wright hit a Homerun in his first at bat and you could hear the collective exhale of all Mets fans.  There was not another HR hit until tonight's game when the Mets set a new record for hitting 4 HR's at Citifield in a single game.  They were all solo shots with two apiece by Rod Barajas and Jeff "The Frenchman" Francoeur.  I always thought that the Frency for Church trade was a good one with high upside.  I think you will see a great year from Frenchy in 2010 similar to what we saw last year after he was traded.
  • Nelson Figeroa is really a "Benedict Arnold" the Phillies were tricked to pick up due to the desperate current state of their bullpen.  So far mission accomplished with one Loss under his belt.
  • Gary, Keith & Ron remain the best announcers in baseball.  Period.  All ways informative, smart & funny.  Regardless if the Mets are losing, winning or tied I am always entertained...and am reminded of how bad other tandems are when I am forced to endure them.
  • Saturday, April 10th @ 1:10 PM marks the return of Jose Reyes after almost an 11 month layoff.  Hells Yea!  I expect some sort of ceremony with all the deserved fanfare when we restore Jose X 4 to his rightful place atop of the WTTTB Most Hated Met.

 

That's all for now.  I'll be back with my usual broadcasts soon.  Go Mets!

 

Alive

Written by Benny B. | 01 April 2010

Daniel Murphy, the Mets quasi-first basemen, was diagnosed with a grade 1 sprain of his MCL and will be out 2-6 weeks. In other news Mets management has decided to be prudent for a change and "take it slow" with Jose Reyes. He will only appear in Minor League rehab games in order to make his DL stint retroactive.  If all goes according to plan, Jose will be in uniform the 6th game of the season vs. the Washington Nationals.

First, Daniel Murphy:  I like him. It's hard not to.  He is always working hard trying to improve his game offensively and defensively.  He was just starting to get hot after a dreadful spring training.  And now he is out 2-6 weeks.  I feel bad for him, I really do.  But lets get real.  Everyone including Murphy's mother knows that it is only a matter of time before Ike Davis is manning first base.  I don't know how to say this without sounding like a dick, but here goes:  If someone said one Mets player is going to be injured to start the season, and I had to choose, I would choose Murphy.  Ike Davis absolutely murdered the ball this spring going .480/.536/.960 with 3 HRs.  Yes, spring training is spring training, BUT, there is not a single Mets fan that isn't excited about this kid.  And if Murphy's injury helps him get to the bigs a little quicker, so be it.  So it looks like Mike Jacobs is slated to be the starting first baseman.  BAD IDEA.  Yes way back when he hit 32 Homer Runs.  Yippie!  But that is all he does, and he was cut by arguably the WORST team in the AL, The Royals.  Ted berg put it best here:

...be it Jacobs or Catalanotto or (fingers crossed) longshot candidate Chris Carter — will see some time at first. If it’s Jacobs, he’ll hit home runs and play poor defense. If it’s Catalanotto, he’ll get on base and play better defense than Jacobs. If it’s Carter, he’ll likely hit more home runs than Catalanotto but fewer than Jacobs while playing better defense than Jacobs but worse defense than Catalanotto.

I too am hoping for Carter.  He's relatively young (27) and has also been mashing in his limited playing time .407/.448/.926 with 4 HRs. At the very least, he should be the last bench spot.  But instead, it looks like Jacobs and his .194 batting average will be starting there because of past accomplishments.  It's foolish move by management, but I see this as a win-win.  If Jacobs starts mashing, great!  He helps the team.  If he is stinks it up, great!  Cut him.  He helps the team by facilitating the arrival of "We like" Ike Davis.

Now Reyes:  Would I have liked to see him opening day? Sure.  Could he have possibly been ready to play Opening Day?  Yup.  Am I upset about the decision?  No.  5 games is a small price to pay to ensure that Jose's strength is at full capacity.  He is in great shape and will most likely be batting lead off, but hopefully Jerry has not trashed the logical idea of hitting him 3rd until Beltran returns.  The move to start him on the DL is not a surprise--many conservative bloggers and beat writers have lobbied for this.  However, if you read the NY papers today you would think that the entire Mets team plane crashed into the Andes and are now eating their departed teammates to survive (too bad Ramon Castro and Livan Hernandez weren't on the plane...they would have fed the entire team till the summer thaw).

All in all, the Mets have had very few injuries this spring.  Escobar was an injury risk when they signed him. Reyes thryoid is a non-baseball related matter, and you know how I feel about Murphy.  Beltran is obviously the biggest loss, but reports are that his is on/ahead of schedule.  He took indoor batting practice for the first time yesterday and I hope to see him patrolling center field mid-may.  Yes, the bullpen is "unsettled", but I could care less.  The Mets have more options and depth in the pen than they have had in a long time.  In fact, the Mets have depth this year across the board with young MLB-ready talent waiting should starters falter/get injured...that is everywhere EXCEPT the starting rotation which is the biggest question mark.  It would be wise for the mets to acquire a legit #2 starter as soon as possible.

The Mets have flaws, as do most teams....maybe more than most teams.  This is an important year for the entire Mets organization.  I know it is painful for the Mets-faithful, but check out this graphic. The Mets were in first place May 18th, and were in contention until the middle of June.  From there it was a slow & painful decline which does not have to be recounted.  If they can stay healthy and the pitching is satisfactory, they should be in the mix all year.  Regardless, I am tired of all the guessing and the analysis.  It's time to get this show on the road.  It's time to play ball.  LETS GO METS!

David Wright's Power Decline is Unprecedented

Written by Mike Mariano | 01 April 2010

Baseball Prospectus, a home of fantastic technical and sabermetric baseball analysis, ran a few numbers and concluded that no player as young as David Wright has faced such a drop off in power production as he did in 2009.  The long and short of their number crunching is that they took the average home runs from every MLB season and calculated where every player fell in terms of standard deviation from that mean.  Basically, it assigned a small manageable number to the amount of home runs a player hit in comparison to the home runs hit in that year to make for easier era-to-era comparison.

From 2005 to 2008, David Wright finished between .68 and 1.51 standard deviations away from the average amount of home runs hit by a single player.  More simply, he hit more home runs in those season than 75.1-93.5 percent of ballplayers in those years.  Then in 2009, DW finished at a standard deviation of -.60! Which equates to hitting less home runs than 77.4 percent of the league.  This sort of drop off has only happened five times in baseball history and the other sob stories include: Don Baylor, Vinny Castilla, Sam Crawford and Del Ennis.  The kicker is that David Wright was at least five years younger than them when in happened to him.  Opening up the search to smaller drop offs and drop offs over shorter periods of time (not five years) gives some more names, but still none as striking as David Wright.

Granted, he's only going to be 27 this year and he was hurt and the whole team was hurt and he had no protection and he was pressing and blah and blah and blah.  I'm sure he'll be fine Mets fans I'm not pretending that Wright is suddenly some slap hitting Sally who'll never hit home runs again.  I'm just relaying the facts found by smarter men than I.

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