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How does Omar Minaya still have a job?

Written by Mike Mariano | 16 July 2009

After reading Matt's take on Minaya this morning, I wanted to give my own take on the Mets GM.  I have prettty much always disliked Omar (it comes with the red pinstriped territory) and have thought he should get the boot for some time now.  Before it was just because I didn't like him, but now I prepare a much more logical thought process as to why I don't think Omar should be the GM of the Mets: Being GM of the New York Mets, Omar Minaya has one of the easiest and most difficult general managing positions in the game.  He has an wild payroll to work with, however he is criticized and scrutinized at every turn.  The pressure to "win now" is ever mounting.  With that being said, it takes a balance. Omar took over a Mets team coming off of a 71-win, fourth place season.  David Wright came up during that season and established himself as the 3B of the future.  Jose Reyes didn't come up in 2004, but started 2005 from the get-go.  The pitching staff was old (Leiter, Glavine, Trachsel) and it was the end of an era (Mike Piazza).  Also he had to deal with one of the worst trades in Mets history by his predecessor (Kazmir for Zambrano).  Clearly this is a team in need of some rebuilding.  In the offseason Omar inks Pedro and Beltran to big money deals, both of which are at the least defensible at the time.  Beltran's was great because he was an emerging star and only 28 years old.  His tenure has been fantastic as a Met.  Pedro on the otherhand was questionable.  He was a great pitcher, no doubt, but he was old and that 3rd and 4th season on the contract came with considerable risk.  Nonetheless, the Mets improved to 83 wins and tied for 3rd in the division. This is where I think Omar chose the wrong path.  He went for it all.  In the offseason after 2005, Omar signed Billy Wagner and acquired Carlos Delgado & Paul Lo Duca for prospects, having to take on their large deals.  Also he signed bench (Valentin, Franco, Chavez) and bullpen (Bradford, Duaner Sanchez) guys to shore up the roster.  Also Omar made two shrewed moves in dealing Mike Cameron for Xavier Nady and Kris Benson for Jorge Julio/John Maine.  The moves clearly worked in 2006 and the Mets made the NLCS (with a league high 97 wins) only to lose to the eventual World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals in heartbreaking fashion.  That team was good enough to have won the World Series in 2006, but at what cost? The cost.  That's where Omar lost sight of his assets and mortgaged the future for the present, which unless you capture the world series ring is almost always an epic disaster.  Pedro, Wagner, Delgado, Lo Duca all older guys who are under big contracts and thus have to play.  Wright and Reyes are becoming superstars, but instead of building a nucleus around them to put together a wide championship window around their primes, Minaya shot for the moon immediately and mucked up the roster with huge contacts and guys past their prime.  He was successful in year one, but of course he was.  He acquired guys on longer deals that other teams didn't want to pay that excess money to.  He got their premium services for the immediate future and who knows how long after that. After 2006's promise, it only got worse and Omar kept mortgaging to reach the title.  Minaya signed Moises Alou to a big deal when he was 40!  Still a good player when healthy and had a decent year in the half of the year he played.  As if it wasn't enough that he was hurt so much in 2007,  he picked up his option for 2008 too.  To quote Old School, "That's what old people do. They die."  And die Moises did, he was hurt the whole year.   Luis Castillo also got a big extension.  Minaya went on to trade then prospect, now 2009 all-star reliever Heath Bell for a bag of nothing.  He also got the short end of a prospect swap with the Marlins (losing Matt Lindstrom for nothing).  And he traded Brian Bannister (who's become quite a useful pitcher) to KC for Ambiorix Burgos.  Fail. Fail. Fail.  Fail. Fail. Also worth mentioning is the waste of two enormous assets.  During the 2006 season, Lastings Milledge & Aaron Heilman could've netted the Mets Barry Zito from the A's.  Now, don't misinterpret that, in no way should the Mets have traded Zito, he was a walking bust and Minaya chose wisely.  HOWEVER, that speaks the kind of player that Omar could've gotten in return and insted he got nothing from both guys.  Heilman was shipped out after the 2007 disaster that he helped make possible and Milledge never panned out and was shipped to D.C. for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.  Meh. Don't forget to add in the debacle that was the firing of Willie Randolph and hiring of Jerry Manuel.  Firing are completely normal and part of the game, but it was handled in the least professional way possible.  Just a disaster all around. After 2007, where the team implodes mid-season, Minaya trades for Johan.  Great trade.  Gives up prospects, but no one cant-miss and makes the deal work.  Still they fail.  They collapse (kind of) again in 2008 and Minaya spends more money.  Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz (who they traded for: Heilman, Endy Chavez) this time.  Not too mention Oliver Perez's ridiculous contract.  K-Rod has been phenomenal.  J.J. Putz and Ollie not so much.  The real issue is that Omar has spread himself so thin with aging stars that when they went down and they tend to do that, they're old, the bench and role guys couldn't hack it.  The lineups the Mets have been throwing out are embarrasing.  There is no way a team with a payroll this high should be facing such issues. Omar made the Mets a contender overnight, however he botched the broader picture.  Where are they now?  Was it worth it?  I doubt it.  David Wright and Jose Reyes both turn 27 next season, the dead middle of their primes and where will the Mets be.  Instead of maximizing the assets he had to create the optimal window of contention, he went for it all and now he's paying the price.  For a team with all that money, where is the farm system?  Look at what other big money teams are doing.  Boston, New York, the LA's, even the Phillies have all shifted their enormous resources to development and the benefits are obvious.  The Mets however, focused on veterans and moving them and resigning them.  If this was 1995, that would have been a good strategy.  But in 2009 with everyone being as smart as they are, if you're not capitalizing on your assets, someone else will and that's exactly what happened. The Mets need to move forward and get rid of Omar.  The problem is it might be too late to rebuild around DW & Reyes because you don't want to waste anymore of their prime years.  At the least, Omar has shown he can't multi-task and optimize the future and the past, in today's world it is time to find someone who can.

An Honest Assessment of Omar Minaya

Written by Mike Mariano | 15 July 2009

The 2009 season has been nothing short of a failure for the Mets.  Some people blame injuries.  Some people blame poor fundamentals.  Some people even blame Jerry Manuel.  But the most popular scapegoat among Mets fans is Omar Minaya.  I'm here to tell you that's a mistake.  I feel like the only Mets fan who actually likes Omar, and I am going to defend his track record by debunking some common misconceptions about his tenure.  Adam Rubin recently wrote an article completely trashing the organization, and he cited an "unnamed" scout with the following assessment:
I understand that NY teams play under different rules and FA signings are the M.O., but without the influx of talent from the amateur draft, international scouting and shrewd trades it is difficult to have balance and cohesiveness. More importantly, the vulnerability to injuries is exacerbated by their impotent system. If you evaluate the Minaya regime, it is difficult to identify a plan or philosophy beyond acquiring high priced FA talent.
I don't put much stock into "unnamed scouts", but his assessment actually does a good job summing up the general feelings of the fan base.  But I whole heartedly disagree with much of his assesment.  Let's start with this part:
If you evaluate the Minaya regime, it is difficult to identify a plan or philosophy beyond acquiring high priced FA talent.
Are you serious?  Lets recap the "high priced talent" Minaya has brought in:  Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Fransisco Rodriguez.  That's it.  And who in their right mind wouldn't have brought any one of those guys in?  And for the most part they were/are an overwhelming success.  I mean Pedro didn't live up to the contract, but its hard to deny the impact he had on this franchise.  Overall it was a positive signing.  I guess you also have to count Billy Wagner and Moises Alou, but ever single one of these signings were on a need basis.  It's not like Omar has a blank checkbook to go on a spending spree.  He is not Brian Cashman...don't kid yourself.
If you evaluate the Minaya regime, it is difficult to identify a plan or philosophy beyond acquiring high priced FA talent.
This statement is outrageous.  The only thing Minaya didn't plan for was the loss of half of his team to injuries.  Entering this season the Mets had one glaring need.  The bullpen.  Minaya completely dismantled and rebuilt the bullpen into a force.  And he kept the payroll at almost an identical amount.  Another need was solidifying the bench, and Minaya brought in Gary Sheffield and Alex Cora.  These were both fantastic signings which gave the Mets tremendous depth.  Unfortunately, neither player should be playing everyday.  Thats just something Minaya couldn't have planned for. Another common misconception is that Minaya does not make good trades.  Once again, false.  I actually think Minaya has made some fantasic trades during his tenure.   He acquired both John Maine and Oliver Perez basically as throw-ins to larger deals.  And he made two very underrated acquisitions in 2006: Roberto Hernandez and El Duque.  These two players were crucial in the success of that team.  How about Ryan Church and Brian Schneider for Lastings AAA Milledge.  Advantage Mets.  And the Santana trade was perhaps Minaya's finest hour as a GM.  Sure the money helped, but give credit where credit is due.  That was train robbery.  Of course he has made questionable trades.  See Bell, Heath.  And the latest one is pretty strange, but I'm going to wait more than two games before I pass judgement.  And the jury is still out on the Putz trade, but Sean Green and Jeremey Reed have been adequate.  So lets recap.  In the past few years, Minaya has acquired 7 crucial players that make daily contributions to the team.  2 starting pitchers, 2 relievers, and the starting 1B, C, and RF.  And who did he give up in these deals?  Exactly. Has he made mistakes?  Absolutely.  I think the absolute worst part about Omar Minaya is that he has no idea how to do contract extensions.  He did a horrendous job with Castillo and Perez, and these two moves have handcuffed the franchise.  But if you look at his overall body of work, I would say he is a solid GM.  His job is to create the most competitive team possible.  And if you take a close look at it, he has created a competitive product.  Ultimately, the players have to play, and to blame a 7 1/2 game Sept. collapse on the GM is absurd.  These are my thoughts.  Cue the angry mob of Omar haters.

Who do YOU Hate? VOTE NOW!

Written by Mike Mariano | 14 July 2009

[caption id="attachment_2335" align="alignright" width="272" caption="..To Vote For Who You Hate"]..To Vote For Who You Hate[/caption] One of my favorite Mets bloggers, Metsradamus, is holding his 5th Annual Hall of Hate Vote.  And he NEEDS YOU to cast your vote.  The Phillies are nicely represented this year with four players: Jimmy ".229" Rollins, Brett "Bitch Slap My Wife" Myers, Cole "I'm the Real Choke Artist" Hamels, and WTTTB's own most hated Phillie, Shame Pricktorino.  The rules are you can only vote once from you computer, but you may vote in multiple candidates.  I, for instance, did not simpley vote in every Phillie.  Myers & Vicky made my vote, but Jimmy's & Cole's suckitude this year is punishment enough so I voted in Guillermo Mota instead  (@#ck you Scott Spezio). So without further ado, here are the nominees this Year:
Pete Rose: Picked a fight with a man half his size because his team was getting it's Big Red Tails kicked in during the 1973 NLCS. Received 63 votes in 2008 and was a distant sixth in the voting. John Thomson: A recent nominee for his recent trashing of Paul Lo Duca as a reason for not signing with the Mets. Also, pitched like a wet dishrag in his prior stint for the Mets in 2002. Thomson dropped 54 votes in 2007 to just 22 last year. Jimmy Rollins: His debut on the Hall of Hate ballot, basically for bragging about his team ... and then backing it up. Rollins proclaimed his team "the team to beat", and then getting key hit after key hit to knock the Mets out of the playoffs. Rollins' appearance on the ballot is partly hate, but partly a respect thing. Rollins finished in second place last season with 165 votes, just 12 away from the "winner", Tom Glavine. Brett Myers: Hates the Mets, hits his wife. Myers' appearance on the ballot is not out of respect, but true hate. Myers finished fifth last season with 129 votes. Jeff Torborg: Managed the 1993 Mets, who exposed him as a managing fraud. (Also managed the 2003 World Champion Marlins, but only during the beginning of that season when they stunk.) Received 55 votes and was eighth in 2007's voting, dropped to tenth with 24 votes last season. Guillermo Mota: Was on the list in the past for transgressions against Mike Piazza. After shaking off Paul Lo Duca en route to giving up a series-changing double to Scott Spiezio, getting busted for a banned substance, and for basically dubbing 2007 as his own personal year of suck, he remains on the ballot after finishing a strong third in the voting in 2008 with 162 votes. Mel Rojas: Was traded to the Mets as part of the Turk Wendell deal. The reason it's called the Turk Wendell deal is because Rojas was about as useful as a band-aid on a gunshot wound. Rojas gave up a home run to Paul O'Neill in 1997 that finally landed in 2002. Rojas' greatest transgression was his final act as a Met, which was bringing back Bobby Bonilla in a trade. Rojas finished seventh with 46 votes in '08. Cole Hamels: Started off by lecturing Paul Lo Duca on how to celebrate home runs after about ten minutes in the league ... but makes the list with his "choke artists" rant over this past winter on WFAN. First time nominee. Joe Torre: From "Clueless Joe" as a Met, to a hall of famer (and Roger Clemens apologist) as a Yankee. And now gets ready to stick it to the Mets with the help of Manny Ramirez as a Dodger. Dropped from fifth in 2007 with 77 votes to ninth with 33 votes in 2008. Richie Hebner: Wanted no part of the Mets, and played like it at third base. He set the standard for giving baseball fans the finger during his only season in New York. Hebner has been dropping like a stone in the voting, going from 65 to 34 to 20 votes over the past three seasons. Remains on the list because, well ... he deserves it. Eddie Murray: The first baseman of the worst team money could buy, the 1993 Mets. Is it really a compliment when you're the leader of misfits? In a weird statistical quirk, Murray has finished in 11th place for three straight seasons. Tony Fernandez: Was successful at every major league stop he made, except Shea Stadium, where he had maybe three hits in half a season, and blamed gallstones. Tony received 18 votes in 2007 and finished last in the voting, but avoided last place in '08 with 22 votes. Albert Pujols: Made the ballot in 2007 not-so-subtle digging into Tom Glavine after Game 1 of the NLCS, combined with being on the trainers table receiving "treatment" during the ninth inning of the 2007 All-Star Game, possibly costing the Mets a shot at home field advantage in the '07 World Series. Pujols was 4th in 2007's voting with 104 votes, but dropped all the way to eighth with 39 votes last season. Shane Victorino: General pain in the ass, has shared Brett Myers' disdain for the Mets in the past while taunting the Mets by standing on home plate after scoring and clapping in the general direction of the Mets dugout ... yet somehow escapes criticism from the national baseball media because he's a "gamer" and because he's not Jose Reyes. Victorino was fourth in 2008 with 156 votes.
There you have it.  Vote Wisely. :-)

Apple Malfunctions at Citi Field

Written by Mike Mariano | 12 July 2009

Just about everything has gone wrong this year, and now we can't even get the Citi Field apple to work.  Apparently the Mets offense has been so bad that it is actually rusty from lack of use.  After 8 consecutive games without a HR, the Mets decided to raise the apple during the 7th inning stretch.  It turned out to be good luck, because Brian Schneider promptly launched a HR to lead off the inning.  But 2 batters later, Fernando Tatis hit a pinch hit bomb to left, and the apple refused to make an appearance. It was actually a hilarious scene at Citi Field, as the fans booed and chanted for the apple.  Eventually at the end of the inning the apple popped up and the stadium erupted.  It's probably the loudest the stadium has been a month, which is pathetic.  Speaking of pathetic, according to Gary Cohen, the reason the apple did not come up is that it apparently takes 45 seconds to recharge between uses.  So let me get this straight.  The Mets did not even consider the possibility of back to back homeruns?  Thats a telling sign.  Regardless, it was nice to see the Mets hit 2 homeruns in an inning for the first time in what seems like 3 years.  Maybe the should make the 7th inning stretch thing a daily superstition.  And they really need to correct that 45 second thing.  What a joke. [Philly Perspective:  The way this Mets season has gone, the apple in there is probably rotten with worms.  Maybe the apple was so confused by a Fernando Tatis home run that it forgot to come out?  Or possibly, it's a boycott until the embarrasing play subdues?] BallHype: hype it up!

Alex Rios Anyone?

Written by Mike Mariano | 11 July 2009

Yes, I understand the Mets just traded for Jeff Francoeur.  But considering that Francoeur is essentially the same player as Ryan Church, I don't think you can rule out another deal.  The Mets are still strapped for offense, and I just can't see Frenchy making that big of a difference.    I actually came up with an interesting theory about the trade, but I'm not sure how much weight it carries.  Is it possible that the Mets acquired Francoeur with the intention of using him as a trade chip?  Again, I understand that Francoeur's value is pretty low at the moment.  But he is still a somewhat accomplished major league outfielder, and his just a few years older than the "prospects" everyone raves about.  If you were to package Francoeur with a couple prospects, I think you might net significant value in return.  One guy I have in mind is Alex Rios.  He is terribly overpaid right now, but he is a much better player than Jeff Francoeur.  He actually has had a recent decline similiar to Jeff's, but I came across this article on fangraphs, and I was instantly re-assured. 
And Rios has been nothing short of fantastic the last two years - he was worth +4.6 wins in 2007 and +5.5 wins last year. And he’s got the exact same skillset as he had then. Rios is a +3.5 to +4.5 win player in the prime of his career, and he’s due to make just under $60 million for the next five years. This is a really good contract for the Jays. Rios is an outstanding player being paid less than his market value. He’s as far from being a Wells-like albatross as you could possibly get. BB%: 6.5% in 2008, 6.5% in 2009 K%: 17.6% in 2008, 17.0% in 2009 ISO: .170 in 2008, .156 in 2009 His .350 wOBA from last year has become a .325 wOBA this year simply due to BABIP variance, where his .335 batting average on balls in play has dropped to .288 this year. His career BABIP? .328. This “slump” just isn’t anything to be concerned about. He has 32 extra base hits, he’s 13 for 16 in stolen bases, his contact rate is exactly the same as always… there’s just no offensive decline here. He’s the exact same above average hitter he was the last two years. ZIPS projects a .355 wOBA going forward from Rios, which sounds about right for a 28-year-old with his skills. That makes him something like +15 runs per year offensively, and he’s a terrific defensive outfielder to boot, easily capable of playing center or being a gold glove candidate in right.
That's a pretty compelling argument.  Rios is not quite a superstar, but I think he would be a massive upgrade to anything the Mets have at the moment.  I wonder if the Mets could package, say Francoeur and Parnell for Rios.  I think that would be a reasonable trade.  And I'm sure if the Mets wanted to hold onto Francoeur, they could put a package of prospects together to acquire Rios.  Its just comes down to whether or not the Wilpons are willing to pony up.  If it were me, I would have J.P. Ricciardi on the phone right now trying to figure out what it would take.  With that large of a contract, I think it wouldn't take all that much.

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