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Mets avoid opposite field to rekindle power numbers

Written by Mike Mariano | 02 March 2010

Apparently locker room bare-chest and bare-knuckle boxing wasn't the only damage Tony Bernazard caused the Mets last season.  Namely, it was his organizationally implemented "extreme opposite field approach" that sapped the power numbers and led to Citi Field seeing less homers than centerfield at the Polo Grounds.  The former executive was displeased with the teams ability to execute situational hitting, especially with runners aboard, and mandated this new approach to look to hit the ball the other way.

Now that he's gone, understandably the blame for this has been rest solely on Bernazard and that's fine.  It's irrelevant who's idea it was, all that matters is the philosophy is seemingly to blame and it has been changed.  That being said, I have trouble blaming the opposite field approach for the Mets struggles offensively.  Will it sap some power? Surely.  However, will it lead to better overall hitting?  Most likely.  Most pitchers work away because the majority of hitters naturally pull the ball better and look to do so if the count and pitches allow it.  It's harder to hit outside and there's less chance of beaning the guy and putting him on -- it's a safer area to pitch out away from the hitter.  Employing an opposite field approach allows the hitter to take that pitch and smack it for a hit instead of waiting for a better inside pitch that he may never get and possibly backing himself into a disadvantage count.

Can overemphasis of this approach lead to bad results?  Absolutely and that seems to be the consensus of what happened in New York, namely with David Wright (of course... reason no. 278 why his power numbers were down!).  But were his downsized power numbers the travesty the media made them out to be?  I say no.  In May and June, before Wright's reduced power became the talk of the town, Wright hit .378 and .365 respectively in those months.  My thought process as to why comes back to that notion of opposite field hitting.  Early in the season, Wright was lacing balls 2, 3, 4 inches off the plate into right field for singles as if it were child's play.  There didn't seem to be a way to get him out.  Who cares if he's not hitting jacks if he's hitting .370, his OPS was still near 1.000 which is phenomenal.

But you're screaming, and you're right, he struggled so mightily down the stretch, the approach had to have caught up.  His batting average on balls in play was astronomical in May/June, no wonder he hit for so high an average.  Then in July/August/Sept. that BABIP came crashing down to Earth, duh.  However, wasn't that July swoon right about the time that the media started stamping their feet and complaining that their big, bad three-hole hitter wasn't hitting home runs like he used to?  It didn't matter that he was hitting in the high .300's at the time, why the hell wasn't he hitting home runs.

And that's about the time that Wright started pressing for home runs.  The swing changed, the approach changed, and there's nothing worse for your swing that overswinging and trying to hard to hit home runs.  The stats reflect it.  Isn't your batting average on balls in play is going to be high if you're disciplined and hit the balls hard to all fields and going to dive-bomb when you dip and jack for the fence every time up?  So, he couldn't hit anything down the stretch, then he got beaned in the head and the rest goes down with '09 season in infamy.  Whatever happened in '09, I don't want to hear about the opposite field approach as being the problem, at least not for David Wright, unless they were docking guys pay for pulling balls or something illogical like that.  Then again, it's the Mets were talking here, anything is possible.

Added By Benny B.

The Hardball times did an analysis on the Mets Pull Vs. Oppo hitting and found that in the course of one season they went from the top 5 pull hitting teams (2008) to the top 5 oppo hitting teams (2009).  So it does appear that regardless of who implemented the philosophy, the Mets implemented oppo hitting hardcore in 2009.

This definitely could have contributed to the reduction power numbers.  And Wright--who got off to a blazing start--could have been over-swinging, over-thinking or whatever "over" moniker you wish to add.  However, the most obvious explanation for the decrease in power and Wright's July-September swoon was the utter lack of power and protection in the lineup. Beltran, Delgado & Reyes were all out for extended periods of time in 2009.  That's 3 core players; two of which protected Wright.

So there is no need to over-think this one.  When a lineup has no power, it's not going to hit for power.  When your only power hitter has no protection the pitcher has an advantage and of course Wright is going to natuaraly press and try make things happen; falling right into the pitcher's trap.  The oppo drill, spacious Citifield  & the "Over" fill-in-the blanks are all secondary reasons or a result of not having any power or protection in a lineup long term.

Wright will have trouble avoiding steroid talk

Written by Mike Mariano | 26 February 2010

David Wright's 2010 physique2010 looms as an important year for Mr. Flushing, David Wright. Last season was a disaster from a team and individual standpoint.  DW hit 10 homers in the inaugural season at Citi Field and the Mets critics were all over him (some deserved, some not).  Luckily for Wright, the team was so bad that it really didn't matter if he hit 50 home runs, they still would've been terrible.  However, if all goes according plan for the Metropolitans in 2010, there's a resurgence and the team contends for the division, that indifference won't be the case again.  The pressure is on for the young cornerstone to produce, produce.. produce this season.  And then some if he's going to get the NY media monkey off his back.

So David Wright did the right thing.  He took the offseason seriously, put on some muscle and looks like Hercules.  He's the classic spring training "best shape of his life" guy and ready to roll in '10.  Hooray, Yipee, Wahoo, blah, blah, blah.  All that's great except for the fact that it's 2010 and he looks like Hercules.  Add in the fact that he only hit 10 home runs last year after four straight years of 25 plus jacks.  Put that together and what do you get?  The answer shouldn't be too surprising:

The "steroids" whispers/allegations running rampant in mid-August when Wright has 30 home runs stream rolling into September. David Wright will be "outraged, disappointed, blindsided" you name it and whomever started the "controversy" will get lambasted by every major media outlet around.  Then barring a positive test (hardly out of the question, I mean, it is 2010) everything will blow over and away.  Unless of course he only hits 10 homers again in 2011, but that's a story for another day.

Is it justified?  Is it fair?  Does Wright deserve it?  It doesn't matter.  Baseball is so far past all the moral issues of who's toes are getting stepped on and who feels mistreated.  If you want to get swoll in the offseason and add shredded muscle, you've got to develop some thick skin because somewhere along the line someone is going to come out and pose the inevitable question:  Is player X on steroids?  It's a sad, but true story of the game of baseball today.

Not only was the question posed, it was borderline screamed by Will Carroll on twitter the other day, here's the tweet in it's entirety:

So Gagne regrets ... something and Wright shows up at camp *noticeably* more muscular. In other words, nothings changed in baseball.

Wow.  We could pretend that Carroll's words are a commentary on the media's handling and creation of the steroid witch hunt, but that's not the case.  In reality, Carroll is expressing the fact that we can't trust the players anymore, no matter who they are.  Baseball players have run out of second chances.  "I didn't do it."  "I'd never disgrace the game." "I'm offended you'd ask that."  From now on, let's ignore all the verbal politicking through the media.  If a seemingly good guy like David Wright has to swallow some criticism and controversy, so be it.  Raul Ibanez had to take a few shots last year and plenty more guys will in the future.  I can't imagine that we'll stop hearing about it until the guys stop cheating or it becomes legal... so yeah, never.

Kelvim Escobar Injured to Start Spring

Written by Mike Mariano | 18 February 2010

UPDATE:  Johan says they had a catch together and the "can't grip a ball" rumors are not true.  Well, damn -- forget everything I just said.

News out of Mets camp today, Kelvim Escobar has a sore shoulder to start out Spring Training.  This is the guy who missed the last two season's with shoulder problems (torn labrum) and was a major injury risk coming in.  $1.25 million dollars later, Escobar and his balky shoulder are having trouble again.  On the surface this doesn't appear to be all that noteworthy -- first days of spring, old pitchers are going to have shoulder soreness.

However, if Hardball Talk has it correctly, Escobar can't even grip a baseball right now and that signifies a much, much bigger problem.  I've had every type of shoulder soreness there is while playing ball.  Tendonitis, subluxation, impingement, rotator cuff weakness, labrum soreness, you name it.  Never once have I not been able to grip a baseball.  If I'm a Mets fan, I wouldn't count on seeing Escobar in that set-up man role for too much of this season.

Busy Day as Mets Sign 4

Written by Benny B. | 12 February 2010

The Mets had a busy day yesterday as they finalized minor league deals for 4 players, with a lot of incentives if they make the big league team.   Here's a list and some links & analysis (I use that term lightly).

Mike Jacobs 1st Base

Jacobs was dealt to the Marlins in the trade that brought Delgado to the Mets.  At the time he was a rookie with a lot of promise.  I was intrigued by him at the time, but in no way was I sorry to see him go in order to bring in a player of Delgado's caliber.  So with the lack of depth at first, on the surface, this appears to be a good move.  After all, the Mets are power-starved, especially with the absence of Beltran at least until May.  Unfortunately, hitting home runs is the only thing he does well.  He strikes out a ton.  Does not hit for average and plays poor defense.  Some have already speculated that Murpy is a better defender at first after learning on the job last year (after all he is working with Keith Hernandez).  So, there is a minimal benefit of a glorified DH on the Mets bench that would be better served by a more versatile option.  I have been preaching defense this whole off-season as the best way to improve the Mets rotation after Lackey was taken off the board, and Jacobs does not embody that.  Furthermore, if Jacobs doesn't make the team, is he going to sap playing time from Mets prospects Ike Davis & Nick Evans?  Ted berg said it best here.

Hisanori Takahashi Pitcher

Takahashi, or Tak, is a Japanese All Star.   He is a 5' 10" 35 year old left handed pitcher who has 5 pitches, the best being a screwball.  He has been compared to Jaime Moyer...only with more velocity.  He throws in the upper 80's BTW.   The scouting report on him is that he will throw any of his pitches at anytime and keeps hitters off balance.  This is normally the time I start quoting stats, but I won't.  Why?  Because they are Japanese League stats.  Nevertheless, I do think his arsenal of pithes as well as his unfamiliarity to the league will pay immediate dividends (at least until the league catches up to him).  He is being given the opportunity to earn the 5th starters role and compete with the likes of Niesse, Figgy & Nieve.  However, with Feliciano being the only left hander out of the pen, that seems the obvious best place for him.  He can come in to face tough lefties, and could be left in to finish off the inning with his SP experience...or even be an emergency long man.  I would rather give that last starting spot to one of our young guys.

Shawn Riggens Catcher

Non-Roster invite Riggens was picked up from the Rays scrap heap presumably because there was no more room for him after they signed Kelly Shoppach. Not much is known about Riggens as he has barely cracked the Rays depth chart mainly due to being injured the last two years.  He has only had 209 PA's since 2006, and only played in 7 games last year.  This move is simply to bring more depth to the position, however, Chone & Amazinavenue already predict that Riggens could be a better hitter than Santos and could see some significant playing time this year. This will be one of the story lines I will follow closely this spring.

Rylan Sandoval Shortstop

This move above all else intrigues me.  Obviously, he will not challenge Reyes, but beyond this year who knows?  I personally think Jose will be fine and bounce back, but his late season swoons in 2007-2008 and the re-emergence of the injury bug has cast a shred of doubt on Jose's future which is why a good 2010 season would crush those doubts.  Nevertheless, Sandoval was one of the Leading hitters and top defensive shortstops in the AWL this year before he was plucked up by the Mets.  In fact, he was drafted by the Mets in 2007, but opted to remain in School.  I like that.  What I wouldn't be surprised to see (and really what I want to see) is Sandoval being immediately converted into a second baseman.  I think we are going to see Castillo break down this year.  His defense is degrading at an alarming rate, and what this team really needs is good defense "up the middle".  I think if Sandoval can translate his defensive skills to 2nd, though a long shot, we might even see him some time this year.  The only thing that Castillo does well is get on base, and for someone that is not leading off, his services are expendable.

So there you have it.  Apparently, the Buffalo Bisons should have one of the best records in AAA this year as their team is destined to be littered with MLB talent.  Whether that is a good thing or a hinderance to our young prospects is yet to be seen.  One thing is for certain though:  Pitchers & Catchers report in a week, and I can't wait to finally see the start of baseball, and the end of all this negative speculation.  Lets Go Mets!

Is a skinny Pelfrey a better Pelf?

Written by Mike Mariano | 09 February 2010

It is just me or is anyone else wondering where the 25 lbs that Mike Pelfrey reported has dropped came from?  I could be wrong, but won't he look like Cole Hamels now?  I don't remember Big Pelf Dog being all that heavy to begin with.  He's one of 2010's best shape of his life guys, so good for him, I'd expect a bounce back season for him regardless of this newfound health.  The guy throws a 90+ mph sinker, how the hell doesn't he get outs?

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