Next up in my 2010 fearless forecast is Carlos Beltran.  For a full list of 2010 projections click here.

As much as I like to call Jose Reyes the team's MVP, its really hard to overlook the value of Carlos Beltran.  Beltran was admist yet another monster season when knee trouble sidelined him in mid June.  He eventually returned for a few games in September, but his season was pretty much a wash.  Remarkably, even though he only played in 81 games, he still produced 2.9 WAR.  Fans have always been hard on Beltran, but year in and year out he proves why he is an elite centerfielder.  Still only 32 years old, Beltran is in the heart of his prime, and it's hard to not expect big things from him in 2010.

By The Numbers:

My Two Cents: I think the projections are WAY too conservative.  First of all, it is absurd to project injuries, and that is the problem with computer projections.  As much as Mets fans like to call Beltran soft, he averaged 149 games in his first four years with the Mets.  It is certainly possible that his knee situation will develop into a chronic problem.  But until this is proven to be true, its hard to draw that conclusion.  Looking at the numbers, I actually think Beltran will be a better hitter in Citi Field.  His power numbers will definitely take a small hit, but he appears to be a doubles machine.  I think thats a big reason why he batted .325 last year, almost 40 points above his career average.  It's a very limited sample size, but I expect this trend to continue.

2010 Will Be Successful If: Beltran is given adequate protection.  I think a lot of his success will hinge on David Wright and Jason Bay.  If they both have monster years, I will expect the same out of Beltran.  Especially since he struggles at times with the breaking ball.  If Beltran stays patient and gets good pitches to hit, he is a guarenteed all-star.  I really hope Jerry Manuel bats Beltran second in the batting order.  Just imagine Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay.  Thats as intimidating as it gets.

2010 Will Be a Failure If: Again, an obvious answer is health.  And there is no doubt that Mets fans should be worried about Beltran's knee.  But another key to Beltran's season is confidence.  When he struggled in 2005, I think the constant media and fan pressure got to him.  And he definitely lost a ton of confidence.  If the Mets get off to a bad start, and Beltran isn't playing well, I'm worried that the media will eat Beltran alive, and possibly even run him out of town.  This would, of course, be ridiculous, but you just never know in New York.  So I think getting off to a strong start is a must for Beltran.

Comments (6)

Name

Email

Website

Title

Comment

smaller | bigger

Subscribe via email (registered users only)

Add Comment