According to multiple reports confirmed by Jon Heyman and Mike Fatcessa, the Mets have made initial offers to Bengie Molina and Jason Bay. 

This is a classic good news, bad news scenario.  I still believe that Jason Bay is best suited as a DH, but I can't get over the thought of him batting cleanup for the Mets.  That lineup would be insane.  Bay hits 30 home runs with regularity, and he holds a respectable .376 career OBP.  I still think Matt Holliday is more of a complete player, but Jason Bay is the better overall hitter.  So if the Mets are serious about pursuing Bay, I can't complain.

But this is the Mets were talking about. Good news is always accompanied by bad news.  I can't get over Minaya's obsession with aging catchers.  Especially not Bengie Molina.  There's no question that Molina is a solid hitting catcher.  But he is the slowest player in baseball, and he posted an abysmal .285 OBP last year.  The guy is a serious rally killer, and the Mets have way too many of those.  Not to mention, he's 35 years old and he plays the most demanding position in baseball.  To invest 2 years, $16 million in him would be inexcusable.  It would be such a typical Mets mistake.  Why not give Thole and Santos a chance to platoon, and use the extra money on Holliday/Bay/Lackey.  It makes too much sense.

When the Ruben Amaro Jr. came out to say that Matt Stairs only be receiving a minor league deal, it marked the end of an era.  Pat Burrell and then Matt Stairs, combined to play a role in the Phillies clubhouse that is one of the most beloved jobs in all of baseball: the man's man.  Baseball is the only American sport where out of shape men can compete at the professional level.  These beer bellied ballplayers are what makes baseball the American Pastime.  There's always been a fan connection to baseball that football and basketball don't have because they can relate so easily to some of their favorite players.  Guys like Pat & Matt (whoa, never saying it that way again) don't have six-pack abs or 4.4 forty yard dash times, they're just like the rest of us.  They're exactly what the rest of us would look like if we could just get to the gym a few more times a week... right?

Well wrong, but the point remains, the Pat Burrell's and Matt Stairs' of the world become fan favorites because they manage to perform with the best athletes in the world while giving the appearance of guys that you'd throw back a few beers and watch football with.  Speaking of beers, the amount of jokes made about Burrell or Stairs being drunk on the field have been endless during their respective times in Philly and that only makes them more likeable.

Sadly, there's a void now that those great men have moved on and no one to fill it in sight.  Also how many other guys league wide can even fill that void?  Nick Swisher remains the only true prospect out there.  Jim Thome might work at this stage in his career.  Otherwise, I'm at a loss.  There's only one answer for the Phillies.

Greg Dobbs.

It's time for Dobbsy to step up and be the man we all need him to be.  I don't know if he can do it, but he's our only hope at this point.

As Mike previously mentioned, the Phillies just picked up Ross Gload.  However, what he fails to mention is that the Phillies are setting an unnecessary precedent this Hot-Stove season by giving aging back-up & bench players multi-year deals.  First Brian Schneider & now Ross Gload. I just don't understand why OmarRueben Amaro fells the need to make these types of signings in this economy (where players are essentially being given away), for multiple years.

Guess what these numbers represent:

2009: -0.9

2008: -0.9

2007: 0.4

2006: -0.1

2005: -0.5

These are Ross Gload's Wins Above Replacement value over the last 5 years.   Only once in 2007 was his value worth more than a replacement level player in AAA; and only by an infinitesimal amount.  In other words, a replacment level player in AAA would have either put up similar numbers to Gload's or most likely BETTER numbers.

So, what gives Phillie?  You already have turned the cather's market on it's head by giving Schneider a multi-year deal. It is any surprise now that Yorvit Torreabla--who was destined for a one year deal--is demanding a multi year deal? Now this move gives hope to all the negative WAR bench players out there.

As a Mets fan, we just have to hope and pray that Omar doesn't follow Amaro's lead.  Just sit tight Omar, there are many options out there at catcher & second tier pitchers.  No need to offer Molina a three or even a two year deal.  No need to offer Marquis et al guaranteed multi-year deals.  Single years with incentives should suffice...that is of course, if Phillie doesn't turn around and sign Gary Sheffield to a 3 year deal.

Another step backwards for the Phillies.  The Mets have already gained ground on the Phillies and haven't even made a significant move yet.  I normally would be happy, but I just don't have the confidence that Omar Minaya will be able to keep his hands in his pockets.  Thanks for nothing Phillie.

Update:  Bah! Mets offer two years to Bengie Molina -- This is your nightmare Benny.  Okay, not really because Bengie is the lone type A free agent and does sport a positive WAR, however he is getting up there in age.  Years at ages 35 and 36 could be interesting...

Update From MLBTR:

Newsday's David Lennon has heard Bengie Molina is the Mets' first choice at catcher, and "if he accepts a two-year deal, in the $12-million range, he figures to be a Met very shortly."  Still, Lennon's "Mets closing on Molina" headline seems strong.  Lennon says that if Molina insists on three years, the Mets could sign Yorvit Torrealba for one - even though Torrealba could get two years elsewhere.  The Rockies, Giants, and Royals are also in on Torrealba, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  The Rockies are willing to giveMiguel Olivo two years if they can't get Torrealba.

Molina was left out in the cold once before, in the 2005-06 offseason.  He cashed in with the Giants the following winter, and should probably jump on this Mets offer.

So, there's still hope that the Mets do the right thing and not sign Molina for more than one year and a vesting option....And then I woke up and remembered that Omar Miniya is still our GM.

Update:

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Mets did NOT make an offer to free-agent C Bengie Molina yet.

Update: Well Matt, it was a good idea in theory, but even if Minaya was planning on making a move, it's too late now.

According to the Detroit Free Press, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski needs to shed significant payroll for 2010.  He names Edwin Jackson, Gerald Laird, Curtis Granderson, and even Miguel Cabrera as candidates to be traded at the Winter Meetings.

If this report is true, Omar Minaya needs to stop negotiating with mid level free agents and get Dombrowski on the phone.  Despite a down year in 2009, Granderson is everything the Mets should be looking for in an outfielder.  A true five tool guy who hustles and plays the game the right way.   He is a tremendous clubhouse influence, and would become an instant fan favorite in New York.

Could you imagine Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Beltran, and David Wright at the top of the order?  That would be unstoppable.  If you're wary of Granderson's .249 average in 2009 don't be.  His .276 BABIP demonstrates a good amount of bad luck, and I have believe that he will fall much closer to his career .272 average next year.  He also set a career high with 30 home runs and stole 20 bases.  Granderson is a legitimate superstar, and he would do big things given the dimensions of Citi Field.

Now the question is, what would it take to acquire Granderson?  Given his reasonable contract, I have to believe the price would be extremely steep.  I would offer something along the lines of Mike Pelfrey, Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, and Brad Holt as a starting point.  Who knows, maybe the deal could even be expanded to include Edwin Jackson.  Of course this is all speculation, but the prospect of Granderson in a Mets uniform is exciting nontheless.  I'm tired of bogus internet rumors.  Get something done Omar.  I still have faith in you.

On MLBTR today there's an article that the Mets would consider Pat Burrell as a option this offseason.  The acquisition would stem from the second part of a Cubs-Rays swap: Burrell for Milton Bradley.  Then the Mets would potentially swap Luis Castillo for Pat "the Bat".  Pat in the blue and orange?  Gross.

In no way can I fault Pat for signing there, because it would be in a trade and of course if someone wants to pay you to play baseball for a living, well you do it.  However, it would be devastating to see him trotting around in those ugly royal blue pinstripes.  Then again, his most likely mediocre to awful play would be sweet in the long run knowing that our Philly hero is sabotaging the Mets.

And it can't be discounted that watching Mets fans try to root for Pat would be hilarious in and of itself.  In no way will I desire this to happen, but Mets fans don't try to take some sick satisfaction from signing Pat because I won't give you that happiness.

In his most recent article, Ken Rosenthal discusses the state of the Mark DeRosa market.  He goes on to say:

"Lesser teams such as the Mets and Nationals also are interested in DeRosa, according to major-league sources. But, like so many free agents, his first choice is to play for a contender."

Excuse me Mr. Rosenthal, but would you care to explain how the Mets are not even contenders now?  Sure there are question marks.  But they were legitmate World Series contenders from 2006-2008, and one injury plagued season doesn't change that.  The notion that players wouldn't come play for the Mets because they can't contend is absurd.

As a Mets fan I'm not even that interested in signing DeRosa.  But I'm growing tired of the Mets being used as a punchline in the mainstream media.  Last year was a disaster, but this remains a very talented team.  I used to have a great deal of respect for Rosenthal, but that pretty much evaporated when I read this column.

From Ted Berg...

"If Rex Ryan wanted Mark Sanchez to hurt himself on a head-first nosedive, he'd have brought in someone from the Mets."

Well played Ted.  If you don't already follow him on Twitter I suggest you do it now.  The guy is hilarious.

According to Jon Heyman, "the Mets are not heavily involved in free-agent RHP John Lackey".  As far as I'm concerned, this is good news.  I wouldn't mind seeing Lackey in a Mets uniform, but I just don't think he commands a $100 million contract.  His value is inflated because he happens to be the best pitcher in a weak free agent class.  Lackey's best season came in 2007 when he was 19-9 with a league leading 3.01 ERA.  But he has regressed slightly over the past two years, and failed to reach 200 innings in either season.

Instead, I think the Mets should turn their focus to one of Lackey's teammates- Kelvim Escobar.  I know what you're thinking.  Why would a team decimated by the injury bug bring in a guy who has pitched only 5 innings in the last 2 years?  And that's a fair question to ask.  But Escobar was a star in the making before he fell victim to shoulder surgery.  If Escobar is healthy, he could be the #2 starter that the Mets desperately lack.  Assuming his medical records show progress, he might be a fantastic gamble.

Sticking with the theme of buy low, I'm intrigued by Brad Penny as well.  He was a complete failure in Boston, but when he returned to the national league midseason he did work.  I like Penny because he throws hard and doesn't give up homeruns.  He's been banged up over the last few years, but he's just 31 years old and has plenty of innings left.  And with a combined 5.37 ERA over the past 2 years, he should come at a decent price.

Another guy I really like is Joel Pineiro. He is only 30 years old, and coming off the best season of his career.  In 214 innings pitched, he only walked 27 batters.  That is tremendous.  It would be refreshing to root for a guy who actually throws strikes game in and game out.  Especially if he comes at a bargain.  In this market, Pineiro is one of the safest options out there.

Taking a closer look at this free agency class, it is riddled with risk.  Jason Schmidt, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard. In theory, every single one of those guys could be an all-star next year.  It's just a matter of making the right choice.  And unfortunately the Mets don't exactly have the best track record when it comes to making these decisions.

[updated with thoughts from Benny B & Mike below]

According to a recent tweet by Jon Heyman, the Phillies are expected to finalize a 3 year, $18 Million contract with Placido Polanco today.  As much as I hate the Phillies, I really have to admire the way they've handled business the last 2 seasons.  The combined efforts of Pat Gillick and Ruben Amaro Jr. helped transform a team that finished 12 games back in 2006, into a true champion, and possible perrenial powerhouse.  They did almost everything right.  The free agents they brought in (Pedro Feliz and Raul Ibanez) exceeded all expectations.  The players they let go (Aaron Rowand and Pat Burrell) underachieved tremendously with their new teams.  They swung two of the better trades in the last decade by acquiring Brad Lidge and Cliff Lee for essentially nothing.  And they showed confidence and patience with their home grown players which has paid dividends.

That being said, I can't help but feel that the Phillies are heading in the wrong direction in 2010.  Enormous salary increases to their "core" has worn the budget thin.  And with huge question marks surrounding every pitcher not named Cliff Lee, Ruben Amaro Jr. has his work cut out for him.  In my opinion, the Phillies have already made one glaring mistake this offseason.

I absolutely hate the Polanco signing.  He has great value as a second baseman, but he simply doesn't have the bat to play third.  He is one dimensional singles hitter with little speed and above average defense.  Polanco registered an OPS of .727 in 2009, which would rank sixth lowest among third baseman.  His homerun total (10) ranks third lowest, sadly tied with David Wright.  You can make the argument that Polanco will be a better fit to a Phillies lineup that already has its fair share of power hitters.  And when you put his numbers side by side with Pedro Feliz, it appears to be a push.  But Pedro Feliz is a gold glove caliber third baseman.  Polanco is no slouch with the glove, but he is a true second baseman.  And you can't look past the fact that Feliz was a member of the 2008 championship team.  It's also hard to overlook the fact that better free agent third baseman are on the market.  As far as I'm concerned, this is a big mistake.  The Phillies do have a fantastic track record when it comes to making moves like this one, but I feel like they are moving in the wrong direction this time.

Added by Benny B.:

Couldn't agree more Matt. I actually was just about to do a post saying as much, but you already did the heavy lifting.

The Ibanez signing looked like the best deal since the Yankees acquired Babe Ruth. He was absolutely unstoppable pre-allstar break and was on pace to hit like 80 home runs. Then what happened? His production & power fell off a cliff and wound up hitting .270+ with 34 home runs and is now recovering from off-season surgery. I said it once and will say it again: Phillly will ultimately regret the Ibanez singing, and they will ultimately regret this one as well.

My prediction for 2010: Look for both Ibanez & Polanco to have extended stays on the disabled list.  It's your turn for a taste of the injury bug Philly; a prospect made more likely by taking a page out of the book of Omar and giving aging stars in their mid-late 30's multi-year deals.  I mean you guys also just signed Brian Schneider for 2 years!?  Yea he will be the backup, but you better pray that Ruiz remains healthy, or you will see just how "proven" Schneider's bat is.  A lineup without Ruiz, Ibanez & Polanco is going to be much easier to navigate.  Schneider was also dubbed a defensive specialist that works well with pitchers, however I can't remember another Mets catcher that allowed so many passed balls or if he ever threw out a base stealer.  Good luck with that one.

Regardless, this bodes well for the Mets.  They won't have to take as many steps forward this year if the Phillies keep taking steps backward.

Added by Mike:

I like the Mets side of this signing, but I'm not with you guys on the argument.  I am not excited, per se, about the Polanco signing, however I do think it's a good signing even slightly above value.  Yes, Polanco does produce the power needed from a thirdbasemen in today's MLB, but having a 2B who vastly outhits the average second basemen (especially on the power end) you can afford a light hitting third basemen.  Also, Polanco fills a void that the previous Phillies rosters lacked: a guy who gets on base in the bottom half of the order.  It may seem futile to have somebody get on base for Ruiz and the pitcher, but it is much better than the 7-8-9 three-up-three-down parties that we had last season.

Would I have preferred DeRosa? Yes -- he's a Penn guy and a good player.  Would I have preferred a smaller contract?  Absolutely.  However, the Phillies have showed a willingness to go out and get the guys they want and that is something that I admire from this organization.