Written by Mike Mariano | 22 July 2010

The news of the Phillies negotiating for Roy Oswalt was the news of the day around here yesterday.  Something involving Roy coming in and Jayson Werth going out seems to be the one consensus as to what would come of it.  Whether it involve two teams or three, that will be the focal point of it.  If only it was that simple.

Last night it was reported that Roy Oswalt, who has a full no-trade clause, will only accept a deal to an organization that guarantees his $16 million 2012 club-option will be picked up.  This presents a major issue for the (self imposed) cap-conscious Phillies.  With so much money already on the books then, another $16 million would put them well over where they'd like to be for that season after assembling a full roster.

That's the money side of this, but the losing side might be equally important.  Namely, how it will affect Roy and how it will affect the Phillies.  Sitting a cool 7 games outside of the divisional race and 4 out of the wild card, the Phillies aren't the World Series contending "lock" that they were in April.  Could this month long dry spell deter Roy from wanting to pack his bags for Philadelphia?

Contrarily, will this losing create a sense of urgency in Ruben Amaro where he (or the ownership) decides that the $16 million is steep but necessary because the team needs Oswalt to try and get back in this race?  If recent history is any indication, I don't think that ownership will go for such a manuver however it's not impossible.

This deal seems to be falling apart at the seems, however the way team executives play things close to the heart these days, you never do know what's really going on.

Written by Mike Mariano | 22 July 2010

I'm thinking about just setting up a generic post for games like this.  It'll read like:

Opponent's starter went seven, rarely losing command of the game, and left with a nice lead.  The Phillies couldn't really get much going and didn't hit consistently throughout the lineup. Stifled for most of the game, the struggling offense didn't produce and the Phillies pitching wasn't good enough to get a win without it.  Ryan Howard homered in the game.

Maybe I can connect it to ESPN.com so it'll just read the boxscore and when it happens just automatically throw that paragraph up and fill in the blanks.

The Phillies are not a good team right now and we're reaching the breaking point.  The Braves and Cardinals continue to distance themselves from the Phillies who doing everything short of free-falling in the standings.

Per the usual and as the generic future post says, the pitching was decent but not good enough when it counted from Blanton and Ryan Howard hit another home run, smashing a first pitch offering into the seats and sending his XXXL-family into a frenzy.

Tough call for Manual when Blanton came up with the bases loaded in a 1-1 game (7th inning).  There were 2 outs and Joe was only at 74 pitches so Charlie let him hack and hack he did.  He took three MASSIVE swings, all whiffing and the threat was over.  Probably the right move with Blanton pitching as well as he was at that point, the low pitch count, and the two out situation, but in hindsight it obviously doesn't come out so well.

Written by Nikki DeMaio | 21 July 2010

Belief in a just world is a psychological concept that explains world view:  basically, good things should happen to good people, bad things should happen to bad people.  People continue to believe in a just world even when the only evidence available is to the contrary.  Case in point today:  Oliver Perez.  How is it possible that this man, who is quite easily the bane of Mets fans' collective existence at the moment, continues to come back and haunt us?

We all knew this day was coming. I just wish it hadn't come so soon.  Following the Mets' 3-2 loss to the Diamondbacks last night, Oliver Perez was activated from the DL.  Infielder Justin Turner was sent back down to Triple-A to make room for Perez on the roster.  This is minor consolation for me because until yesterday I was convinced that Josh Thole (currently the Mets' best offensive catcher) would be the one banished to Buffalo.

Here's the problem, though.  Oliver Perez is not ready to be a part of a major league roster.  For one thing he is ineffective, but even more alarming is the fact that he does not seem to realize this.  And the Mets refuse to cut ties with him because 1. he's owed nearly $17 million and 2. they have this absurd belief that he will sign somewhere else for league minimum and discover himself.  Both Dan Warthen and Jerry Manuel have admitted that, while Perez was activated to join the 25-man roster, there was really no difference between Ollie now and the Ollie who went on the DL.  So what is he doing on the team?

I don't understand why the Mets WANT to take themselves out of contention.  How can they expect to be taken seriously (by fans and by baseball in general) when they insist on playing short-handed?  Perez is taking up a roster spot from this day on, just like he was before he was mercifully placed on the DL.  He has been relegated to a mop-up man hiding behind the title "lefty specialist" and he seems to be ok with this.  With the bullpen and some starters currently struggling, I wish the Mets would make a move that is actually in the interest of the team.  Perez can not be a starter, which means Hisanori Takahashi has no choice but to remain a starter, hurting both the rotation and the bullpen in the process.  He can't be a bullpen guy either, as evidenced by the way Jerry used him prior to his DL stint.  So essentially, this move accomplishes.... absolutely nothing.  Where's that just world now, Mets fans?

Written by Mike Mariano | 21 July 2010

UPDATE: Buster Olney has a great column up about it and speculates that the deal for Roy wouldn't be directly for Jayson Werth, that Jay would get possibly dealt to Tampa Bay.  Even more interesting.  However, there is this thought nugget inside the article:

But talent evaluators with other teams asked an interesting question Tuesday night, as ESPN reported the on-going talks: If the Phillies land Oswalt, are they good enough to contend for the World Series?

"They've got real holes over there, and I know they need a starting pitcher," one executive said. "But I think their lineup is as much of a problem now [as the pitching questions]. If they got two Roy Oswalts, I'm not sure it would make a difference."

After our initial post this morning about Phillies deals, Sportscenter is talking that the Phillies are in advance trade talks with the Houston Astros.  One proposed deal would center around Roy Oswalt for Jayson Werth, the implication being that Domonic Brown would be called up immediately to replace the struggling and shipped out superstar.

Here are my thoughts, in order about this potential deal:

1. It has to be done.  I'd spoken in the past about possibly ignoring the pitching if they couldn't find a worthwhile option, but this changes everthing.  Amaro would be turning an asset that they'd lose after the season into a premier pitcher which the Phillies desperately need.  With DoBro down on the farm, it's not unreasonable to expect that his production in the lineup will be replaced as well (especially the production level Jay's at right now).
   
   
2. I'm going to be really sad to see Jayson Werth go.  The wolfman is a fan favorite for a reason: because he can be an incredible player and he's just plain cool.  Saying that, he's pretty old for the 5 year, big money deal he would garner if he gets back on track in the second half.  I think he's capable of maintaining a high level of play, but I think it comes with some serious potential for drop-off (see the past two months).
   
3. Roy Oswalt has long been someone I'd like to have on this team.  I know his numbers have been in decline the past few seasons, but he has phenomenal stuff and a pedigree as a top pitcher in this league.  I don't want to speculate now about Lee v. Oswalt v. Halladay and I don't want to think about the fact that it could be ALL THREE plus Hamels. Just kidding.. but for real..
   
4. I can't wait to see me some Domonic Brown.  I haven't been too excited about a Phillies call-up since Ryan Howard back in 2005. I think the kid is going to be a great player, but I'm trying to hold back my expectations seeing as he will be a rookie and most likely struggle some in the show.

Written by Mike Mariano | 21 July 2010

It doesn't help when you're starter gets hurt, let alone in the first inning.  Moyer is already on the 15-day DL and says he'll definitely pitch again this season, but the team just sent Kendrick down to the minors, so we're short two pitchers right now.

Polanco & Ryan Howard are hitting the shit out of the ball, but there are still too many guys sleeping on any given night.  Gotta start winning games sooner or later or we're all going to be crying in our beers with the Mets fans come October.

Written by Mike Mariano | 21 July 2010

This is all verrrrry interesting, yet still speculation.  I'd be very impressed if Ruben put his pride aside, admitted the Cliff Lee mistake and brought in a big-time starter.  Per ESPN this morning:

There were indications Tuesday the Philadelphia Phillies were working on a major deal to acquire a starting pitcher in an attempt to save a season that has veered in the wrong direction this month.

The Phillies will need a starting pitcher for Saturday, since they sent Monday's starter Kyle Kendrick back to the minor leagues on Tuesday. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr., who is with the club in St. Louis, hinted strongly to reporters that the Phillies could acquire a pitcher from outside the organization to make that start.

--

On the pitching front, the Phillies have discussed deals involving a number of starters. They've talked about Arizona's Dan Haren, Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie and Oakland's Ben Sheets, among others. But there were indications they've spent a lot of time in recent days exploring a trade for Astros ace Roy Oswalt.

Written by Mike Mariano | 21 July 2010

(here's a snippet from my interview over at TCB the other day.  The rest of it will follow in segments, because I know that none of you went over there to read it)

Simple answer to that question.. No. However I could give you 20,000 words on why the team should've kept Cliff Lee along with Roy Halladay. Hindsight makes it easy, but a lot of the city has been moaning about it since it happened. Not only because of how badly he's needed, but because it showed that the ownership isn't completely committed to winning. The bottomline undoubtedly matters (hugely so), but in keeping Cliff the team could've created something special, if not dominant. When you have a chance to do something like that, you have to do it, just look at the Miami Heat. Different circumstances, but same lesson nonetheless.

Written by Mike Mariano | 20 July 2010

(here's a snippet from my interview over at TCB the other day.  The rest of it will follow in segments, because I know that none of you went over there to read it)

TCB: The Phillies were expected to run away with the NL again this season, instead they've struggled. What happened?

WTTTB: What I think a lot of people don't remember from last season is that the Phillies didn't play great regular season baseball. With a struggling division in 2009, they really didn't have to. In all honesty, they haven't played fantastic baseball the last few seasons short of the playoff runs. Granted, I'm talking down a team that won (nearly) 90 games each of the past three seasons, but the point remains that they were hardly a juggernaut from April to September.

Fast forward to now and I'm getting flashbacks to the sad Phillies of ol', which certainly hasn't been fun. It all comes down to pitching. Put aside the huge hitting drought of June and just looking at the staff it's obvious that there are holes. Only Roy Halladay is consistent and otherwise it's a crapshoot. Shaky relief pitching and unreliable starting pitching are not part of the recipe for sustained success. In the past, they've figured it out long enough to accomplish great things, but this might be the year that it all catches up with the team.

Written by Mike Mariano | 20 July 2010

Anytime Kyle Kendrick is on the mound, all Phillies not from Houston, TX (his hometown) start cursing under their breath (or very loudly) with disdain.  Last night was one of those nights where Kyle does more than enough to further those negative emotions.  Five innings, Seven runs, Loss.  Sadly for Kendrick, it's not all his fault.  Uncle Charlie left Kendrick out there to die, but not by the merciful guillotine, no more like he let the heart of the Cardinals order tar and feather him on the mound.  Staked a 4-2 lead going into the bottom of the fifth, you tell me when Charlie should have yanked his already shaky starter:

I don't know, maybe after the first 400+ ft. home run hit by King Albert?  No?  Okay, after the second one?  Nah, ok definitely after the third home run of the inning?!  Nope.  Not a quality start on this day.  Not sure what Charlie was thinking today, maybe he needed Kyle to eat innings and rest the bullpen.  I can't imagine why since we're fresh off the all-star break, but there's a chance right?

I find Kendrick to be a sad story.  He's fallen into that dreaded grouping of Philadelphia athletes whom the city has given up on.  I'm not talking about stars like Abreu or McNabb, but role players who the fans simply stop responding too.  The Todd Pinkstons and David Bells of the Philly sports world.  Kendrick is getting there and I hate watching these guys get dwindled down into nothing, I'd rather the organizations just ship them out.  It's depressing.

Getting to the must-win stage.  Can't afford to keep this free-falling rolling.  Eventually it will get to the point where we're too far behind...  (oh yeah - Ryan Howard - still scorching hot)

Written by Gino Ferretti | 18 July 2010

Shave the beard. Grow it back. Close the batting stance. Open it up. Ponder free agency. Forget about it.

Baseball players are creatures of habit that are sometimes ritualistic and sometimes plain ridiculous. From Ryan Howard crouching down and sizing up opposing pitchers with his bat, to Chase Utley's voodoo triangle of bats, Red Bull and fruit, if it works, then more power to the cause.

But whether its the beard, the batting stance or the weight of pending free agency, Jayson Werth has yet to find a habit that works or a change to alleviate the discomfort at the plate. But one thing Werth needs to start doing is the most fundamental, and may just be, the most rewarding habit.

Swing the freakin' bat!

You surely can't say Jayson Werth has been inconsistent. Especially since July has been consistently bad for the slumping slugger. Besides not hitting a home run since June 23, he's hitting a pungent .196 with 10 hits, 3 RBI and 19 strikeouts in 51 at-bats.

But for a hitter who lead the NL with 4.50 pitches per plate appearance last year, you always expect Werth to take pitchers deep into counts. But what is alarming, strictly this year, is his amount of strike outs that come from window shopping. Out of Werth's 19 strikeouts in July, 11 of them have been "looking strikeouts".

No effort. No swing. Deer in the headlights.

"May I help you Mr. Werth?"

"No. Just looking."

Werth looks unsure and often times knee buckled at the plate. A far cry from the free swinging slugging sensation from the past two seasons.

So what's going on?

Nobody in the Phillies organization is talking outside of the obvious notion that Werth needs to swing the bat.

Maybe its mental?

Werth has been tense lately. From his failure at being a role model to fans in the stands, to his mockery and disrespect toward beat writers in the post game clubhouse, its obvious that it's not only the fans, media, and teammates that are frustrated.

With free agency on the horizon following the 2010 season and Werth's previously stated desire to test the market, it could all be a matter of doing too much too soon. Whatever Jayson Werth is trying to prove is working against him. And as the Phillies, as a whole, continue to lag, Werth may not have to stress about free agency anymore.

At least not on the Phillies watch. At least not on their dollar.

But trading Werth isn't as easy as it may appear to be. The Phillies are said to be mainly interested in picking up a good, middle of the rotation, starting pitcher as well as a strong, consistent arm out of the bullpen. But most teams that are looking to release pitching are teams that have packed away any optimism to contend in 2010. What would a team like that want with Werth when they are trying to burn the barn down and rebuild? The only option would be a tricky three team trade involving an "in the hunt" team that would benefit from a resurrected Werth. Those teams are far and few. Then again desperate times call for desperate measures.

So as the trade deadline nears, and the Phillies' want list gains length, the option to deal Werth could come to fruition. With AAA stud Domonic Brown raking like a November afternoon, and an aging Raul Ibanez offering little to no trade value, Werth may be the odd man out. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has made it clear that no position player is currently safe from trade status.

And Amaro is certainly the Frank Rosenthal of the trade deadline.

In the past couple years it's almost been ritualistic for Amaro to make a big trade to tighten up the loose screws on his ship. Trade deadline or off season. Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay. Ruben likes to talk about what he wants, but he LOVES to show he can get it.

The Phillies need help. They have a depleted farm, yet have a golden goose in Jayson Werth to give.

It's almost inevitable what usually happens after that.

And for Rube, trading, is a hard habit to break.