Now that Lackey is off the market, it's time for Omar to turn to plan B.  Forget the Jason Marquis and the Joel Pineiros for now, the guy the Mets should be looking at is Aroldis Chapman.  Although I don't foresee him making an immediate jump to the big leagues, this kid is a special talent, and I think it would be a mistake to pass on him.  He's essentially the left handed version of Stephen Strasburg.

Chapman threw a bullpen session for MLB scouts yesterday, including representatives from the Mets.  The 6' 4'' 22 year old lefty hit 96 on the radar gun, and most people came away impressed.  Said Astros GM Ed Wade, "The kid's got a great arm.  He's a physical specimen. He's left-handed. He throws hard. Obviously, anybody would be interested in an arm like this. He's got some great stuff. The early feedback from our guys, and everybody else, is he's a tremendous talent."  Chapman has been on everyone's radar since he hit 102 mph during the World Baseball Classic, although he seemed to struggled with his command.

The problem with Chapman is the amount of money he is going to command.  I'm assuming that he will use Strasburg's 4 year, $15.1 Million contract as a starting point.  And don't forget he recently fired his agent, so its clear the Chapman is looking for a serious payday.  But at this point, I think he is a necessary gamble.  Why pay Jason Marquis $10 Million per year to be a mediocre starter, when you can give Chapman $3.5 Million with the potential for greatness.  There should be a major bidding war for Chapman in the coming days, and I would hope that the Mets at least submit a competitive offer.  Especially if they lose out on Bay and Holliday.

He isn't even officially on the team yet, and the Philly media is already annoying the hell out of Roy Halladay.  Kudos to The Fightins for passing this along.

Obviously Roy isn't allowed to comment on a trade that hasn't officially been completed.  But its still a hilarious "welcome to Philly" moment for Doc.

America loves a good debate, and in recent years we've had our fair share of great matchups.  Obama vs. McCain, Kobe vs. LeBron, Manning vs. Brady, and Charlie Manuel vs. the English language.  Enter Santana vs. Halladay.

This figures to be an ongoing battle, perhaps as fierce as the rivalry itself.  In the aftermath of the trade, most writers refer to Halladay as "the best pitcher in baseball", and its making me sick.  As far as I'm concerned, Santana is still the best pitcher in baseball.  He was in the past, he is now, and he will be going forward.  And I'm here to tell you why.  Cue the Phillies homers.

First off, lets take a look at the career stats:

Johan Santana: 122-60, 3.12 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 9 CG, 143 ERA+

Roy Halladay: 148-76, 3.43 ERA, 1.198 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 49 CG, 133 ERA+

So Santana has the edge in winning percentage, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, and K/9.  To be fair, Halladay has a massive edge in complete games.  And to me, that is Halladay's biggest strength.  Still, I would have to give the career stats edge to Santana.  Most people say that in the past 2 years, Halladay has greatly outperformed Santana.  This is blatantly false.  Check the numbers:

2008-2009 (since Santana joined the Mets)

Johan Santana: 29-16, 2.78 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3 CG, 150 ERA +

Roy Halladay: 37-21, 2.78 ERA, 1.089 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 18 CG, 154 ERA +

Again, outside of the complete games, it looks like a wash to me.  You probably have to give Halladay the slight edge here, but nothing significant enough to claim the title of "best pitcher in baseball".  Drew Brees doesn't become the best QB in the NFL if he has a better season than Peyton Manning. Bottom line, Santana has the better track record, and he hasn't had a bad year in his entire career.  Hallday has.  And although Santana is coming off of elbow surgery, I like his chances of a more sustained career.  Halladay is a power pitcher who throws an incredible amount of pitches per year.  Santana is more of a finesse guy who relies on his changeup as an out pitch.  What will happen to Halladay when he can't blow people away?  Who knows.  But for many pitchers, like Pedro Martinez, this is a problem.  And Santana is 2 years younger to begin with.

One thing is for certain.  No matter which pitcher is better, the other guy is a close second.  And we are in for some legendary pitchers duels in the coming years.  I'm looking forward to watching, and arguing about this, for years to come.

Now that the deal is finalized (barring Roy Halladay passes his physical) we can sit down and decide what to make of it all.  The moving and shaking can be read in the table on the right of the post (I stole it from ESPN).

As discussed yesterday there are a lot more levels to this deal than moving players.  The main reason the deal was made boils down to the fact that Roy offered the Phillies a much more desirable long-term salary than Cliff Lee did.  Cliff wants a market-value, long-years, long-money deal and that doesn't fit into the Phillies organizational or monetary plans.  Roy on the other hand settled for 3-4 years of $20 million a year which is at least 1-2 years short of what he could have gotten in the open market next year.

On the surface, Lee for Halladay looks fine.  Halladay > Lee -- if only it was that simple.  The Phillies had to part with a lot of quality minor league talent to make this deal work.  Kyle Drabek is the Phillies top pitching prospect, Michael Taylor is right behind Domenick Brown on the hitting side and Travis d'Arnaud is the organization's top catching prospect.  The prospects received in return are of a much lower caliber.  Phillippe Aumont is a good prospect -- tall, lanky pitcher with good heat, but unpolished -- but no where near major league ready.  The other two prospects are lesser guys facing a long road to potentially make it with the big club.

Is the money saved long-term with Halladay worth what it cost to attain?  I don't think so.  I understand Ruben Amaro's thought process during all of this and that he had a tough decision to make.  However, the appeal of Roy Halladay this offseason was in adding him to our current duo of Lee/Hamels, not swapping Lee and Roy.  If the Phillies moved Blanton, signed someone cheaper than Polanco and brought in Roy, the top of the rotation would be a juggernaut and make the Phillies the overwhelming favorite to return to the World Series in '10.  I guess Ruben doesn't believe the world is going to end December, 2010, or else he'd have definitely made that move.

Added by Matt Ryan, 3:28 PM

UPDATE: The Deal is nearing completion, pending physicals.  This is how it breaks down, per mlbtraderumors.

Phillies Get: Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumount, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez, and $6MM from the Jays

Mariners Get: Cliff Lee and possibly another prospect

Blue Jays Get: Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnoud

The Phillies are likely to finalize a three year contract extension with Halladay in the coming days, at approximately $20MM/year.

Obviously, the thought of Roy Halladay in a Phillies uniform is upsetting.  That being said, this deal is not a slam dunk for the Phils.  There's no question that Halladay is a better pitcher than Lee.  But is he that much better?  Lee was money in the postseason last year, and it's hard to ignore that.  If you swap Halladay for Lee last year, the Phillies still come up short.  Plus, Halladay is a 33 year old power pitcher who averages 232 innings per year.  At some point all of that wear and tear is going to catch up.  If Halladay can stay healthy this deal is a huge win for the Phils.

Another key component of this deal are the prospects.  The Phillies lose their best pitching prospect, and gain the Mariners best pitching prospect.  Who knows how each prospect will turn out.  For that reason alone, it's really hard to name a clear cut winner in this trade.  We may revisit this trade in 3 years and say "can you believe the Mariners traded Aumount?", or vice versa.  But one thing to me is clear.  As much as the Phillies getting Halladay hurts, it is not a disaster.  If the Phillies traded for Halladay and kept Lee, that team might win 120 games, and walk through the playoffs.  This team is still great, but until they address the middle of their rotation, they remain beatable.

Original Post:

Added by Mike Mariano

The trade we talked about this morning appears to be more reality than speculation. The deal is far from done, yet Sources indicate that Cliff Lee will be shipped to Seattle, Roy Halladay will come to Philadelphia and a dump truck of prospects will land in Toronto.  The kicker for the Phillies is that they'll be able to reach a deal long term with Doc Halladay that they haven't (or won't) be able to reach with Cliff Lee.

When I first heard the news, I'm mixed about my initial reaction.  Roy Halladay -- love the guy, glad to have him, however (and a big however), is the supposed upgrade from Cliff to Roy worth the price it will cost the Phillies?

At this point we won't know the specifics until the deal is announced, but of course there has been speculation.  Travis D'Arnaud and potentially Michael Taylor may be leaving Philly to bring in the new ace.  D'Arnaud is a good player, but I hate to give up Michael Taylor here.  Him and Domenick Brown are the top of our position players down on the farm and the kid has an extremely high ceiling.  You've got to give some to get some, but is the jump from Lee to Halladay really as big as Michael Taylor?

Also, how is a potential 5 year, $100 million deal for Halladay going to effect this team in the next few years?  Halladay has thrown 1000 more innings than Lee, is a year older, and has had his share of arm injuries in the past.  FIVE more years is a big risk for an aging pitcher.

We'll talk more about this after the details are announced, but as of right now, does this deal make us that much better than we were before hand?

Added by Benny B:

Well, congratulations are in order. Halliday is arguably the best pitcher in baseball (after Johan of course:). However, like you said Mike, was it really worth giving up two top prospects AND Lee? Halliday, after all can only pitch once ever 5th day and may only equate to a couple more wins when all is said and done. Lee & Halliday in your rotation would have been a MAJOR coup. And with your lineup could contend with the Yankees, Sox and whom ever else. However, being as impartial as humanly possible, I think this move is at best a step sideways, and at worst a big step backwards in terms of the Risk reward.

Lackey just signed a 5 year deal with Boston, so it is safe to assume that Halliday at the very LEAST, will get a 5 year deal.  However, if I had to guess, a player option is in there for a 6th year.  I don't think he will get 7 years like CC/Johan considering his age...but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.   We will soon find out the details, but it begs the question if Doc signs a 5 year deal what in the world was Lee demanding?  It would have to be on par with Lackey, and if Doc is gonna get a similar deal, why not just spend that on Lee?  Was this just an excuse to get a bigger name than Lee?  All speculation, and I have got to wonder if maybe doc is going to surprise the hell out of everyone and take a shorter term deal...but I just don't see a pitcher of that caliber taking any sort of discount.  Anyway, the suspense is killing me.

Another congratulations is in order Phillie:  You have now graduated and become a big market team.  Welcome to the club...but this is not necessarily a good thing.  After this deal, it is going to be awfully hard to explain to Cole, Howard & Utley why they don't deserve every cent they are looking for.  Looks like Amaro is competing with Omar on who can be the bigger free wheeler.  By my count that is 6 minor leaguers that is has taken to net Doc (4 for Lee, 2 for Doc)

As a fan of Baseball, I can't wait to see the first Johan v. Doc Halliday matchup.  It's good for baseball and great addition to the next chapter in our rivalry.   I guess it's also nice to know that Lee should be available next offseason.  Time will tell on this move, but I think I would be scratching my head if I were a Phillie fan...

Floating around the rumor mill is the possibility that the Phillies are working a three-or-four-team-trade where the Phillies part ways with Cliff Lee and prospects and end up with Roy Halladay.  Yes, that would sabotage the possibility of having both but as time passes that is beginning to look more and more like a pipe dream at this point.  The costs are simply to high in the long run to have both guys on payroll, along with the offensive stars we already employ.  Both guys are looking for long-term deals and the thinking is that trading for Halladay and ensuring the long term deal is a better option than gambling that Cliff Lee can be signed before he hits the open market.  Which would you rather?

Roy Halladay: Perpetual Cy Young candidate and among best in the game, Great Nickname (Doc Halladay)

Cliff Lee:  Fan favorite, Cy Young, a year and 1000 innings younger, slightly cheaper in the long run.

Personally, I'm partial to Cliff.  If you're going to hand out a long term deal to either of those guys you have to remember one thing: you pay for the past, you get the future.  Roy is absolutely superior to Cliff over their careers and over the past 3-5 years, however it's the next 3-5 that concerns me.  Durability is one of the best attributes a pitcher can have and Roy is a 200 inning horse the past four seasons.  At what point will that run out and will he return to the days of disabled lists and arm injuries?  Cliff may only be a year younger than Roy, but his arm might be five years younger than Roy's.

According to multiple reports confirmed by Jon Heyman and Mike Fatcessa, the Mets have made initial offers to Bengie Molina and Jason Bay. 

This is a classic good news, bad news scenario.  I still believe that Jason Bay is best suited as a DH, but I can't get over the thought of him batting cleanup for the Mets.  That lineup would be insane.  Bay hits 30 home runs with regularity, and he holds a respectable .376 career OBP.  I still think Matt Holliday is more of a complete player, but Jason Bay is the better overall hitter.  So if the Mets are serious about pursuing Bay, I can't complain.

But this is the Mets were talking about. Good news is always accompanied by bad news.  I can't get over Minaya's obsession with aging catchers.  Especially not Bengie Molina.  There's no question that Molina is a solid hitting catcher.  But he is the slowest player in baseball, and he posted an abysmal .285 OBP last year.  The guy is a serious rally killer, and the Mets have way too many of those.  Not to mention, he's 35 years old and he plays the most demanding position in baseball.  To invest 2 years, $16 million in him would be inexcusable.  It would be such a typical Mets mistake.  Why not give Thole and Santos a chance to platoon, and use the extra money on Holliday/Bay/Lackey.  It makes too much sense.

When the Ruben Amaro Jr. came out to say that Matt Stairs only be receiving a minor league deal, it marked the end of an era.  Pat Burrell and then Matt Stairs, combined to play a role in the Phillies clubhouse that is one of the most beloved jobs in all of baseball: the man's man.  Baseball is the only American sport where out of shape men can compete at the professional level.  These beer bellied ballplayers are what makes baseball the American Pastime.  There's always been a fan connection to baseball that football and basketball don't have because they can relate so easily to some of their favorite players.  Guys like Pat & Matt (whoa, never saying it that way again) don't have six-pack abs or 4.4 forty yard dash times, they're just like the rest of us.  They're exactly what the rest of us would look like if we could just get to the gym a few more times a week... right?

Well wrong, but the point remains, the Pat Burrell's and Matt Stairs' of the world become fan favorites because they manage to perform with the best athletes in the world while giving the appearance of guys that you'd throw back a few beers and watch football with.  Speaking of beers, the amount of jokes made about Burrell or Stairs being drunk on the field have been endless during their respective times in Philly and that only makes them more likeable.

Sadly, there's a void now that those great men have moved on and no one to fill it in sight.  Also how many other guys league wide can even fill that void?  Nick Swisher remains the only true prospect out there.  Jim Thome might work at this stage in his career.  Otherwise, I'm at a loss.  There's only one answer for the Phillies.

Greg Dobbs.

It's time for Dobbsy to step up and be the man we all need him to be.  I don't know if he can do it, but he's our only hope at this point.

As Mike previously mentioned, the Phillies just picked up Ross Gload.  However, what he fails to mention is that the Phillies are setting an unnecessary precedent this Hot-Stove season by giving aging back-up & bench players multi-year deals.  First Brian Schneider & now Ross Gload. I just don't understand why OmarRueben Amaro fells the need to make these types of signings in this economy (where players are essentially being given away), for multiple years.

Guess what these numbers represent:

2009: -0.9

2008: -0.9

2007: 0.4

2006: -0.1

2005: -0.5

These are Ross Gload's Wins Above Replacement value over the last 5 years.   Only once in 2007 was his value worth more than a replacement level player in AAA; and only by an infinitesimal amount.  In other words, a replacment level player in AAA would have either put up similar numbers to Gload's or most likely BETTER numbers.

So, what gives Phillie?  You already have turned the cather's market on it's head by giving Schneider a multi-year deal. It is any surprise now that Yorvit Torreabla--who was destined for a one year deal--is demanding a multi year deal? Now this move gives hope to all the negative WAR bench players out there.

As a Mets fan, we just have to hope and pray that Omar doesn't follow Amaro's lead.  Just sit tight Omar, there are many options out there at catcher & second tier pitchers.  No need to offer Molina a three or even a two year deal.  No need to offer Marquis et al guaranteed multi-year deals.  Single years with incentives should suffice...that is of course, if Phillie doesn't turn around and sign Gary Sheffield to a 3 year deal.

Another step backwards for the Phillies.  The Mets have already gained ground on the Phillies and haven't even made a significant move yet.  I normally would be happy, but I just don't have the confidence that Omar Minaya will be able to keep his hands in his pockets.  Thanks for nothing Phillie.

Update:  Bah! Mets offer two years to Bengie Molina -- This is your nightmare Benny.  Okay, not really because Bengie is the lone type A free agent and does sport a positive WAR, however he is getting up there in age.  Years at ages 35 and 36 could be interesting...

Update From MLBTR:

Newsday's David Lennon has heard Bengie Molina is the Mets' first choice at catcher, and "if he accepts a two-year deal, in the $12-million range, he figures to be a Met very shortly."  Still, Lennon's "Mets closing on Molina" headline seems strong.  Lennon says that if Molina insists on three years, the Mets could sign Yorvit Torrealba for one - even though Torrealba could get two years elsewhere.  The Rockies, Giants, and Royals are also in on Torrealba, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  The Rockies are willing to giveMiguel Olivo two years if they can't get Torrealba.

Molina was left out in the cold once before, in the 2005-06 offseason.  He cashed in with the Giants the following winter, and should probably jump on this Mets offer.

So, there's still hope that the Mets do the right thing and not sign Molina for more than one year and a vesting option....And then I woke up and remembered that Omar Miniya is still our GM.

Update:

According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, the Mets did NOT make an offer to free-agent C Bengie Molina yet.