Written by Mike Mariano | 29 January 2010

ESPN and MLB both unveiled their top prospect lists yesterday, now there's plenty of Phillies and Mets debate to have.  Finally!  Benny B has been bashing Phillies prospects the past few days and now we can roll that talk right on into the weekend.

I'll snip out all the Phillies and Mets prospects and the recently departed Phillies prospects in the Lee/Halladay deals -- I know how to give the people what they want.

From ESPN (top 100):

14. Domonic Brown
23. Jenrry Mejia
24. Michael Taylor [OAK]
40. Kyle Drabek [TOR]
41. Wilmer Flores
64. Ike Davis
73. Fernando Martinez
99. Travis d'Arnaud [TOR]

From MLB (top 50):

14. Domonic Brown
17. Kyle Drabek [TOR]
35. Michael Taylor [OAK]
47. Phillippe Aumont

Hmmm, where do I take this.  There's not a single Met in the MLB.com Top 50, awesome.  However, they get tons of love from ESPN.  Also, it hurts me to see Michael Taylor up so high, I still love that guy.  The fall of Fernando is epic down there at no. 73.  Obviously this doesn't definitely answer the Domonic Brown v. Fernando argument, but it absolutely swings it in Dom's favor.  So let's here it Mets/Phillies guys.  What do you think of these rankings?

Written by Mike Mariano | 26 January 2010

If we've learned nothing in the past year or two, it's that everyone in Flushing has their head up their butt, or someone else's for that matter.  What else would begin to explain the team trading a relief pitcher and committing $2 million to Gary Matthews Jr.?  Nothing, that's what.  Once upon a time, Matthews put together a career year, made a ridiculous catch (easily, the catch of that year) and finagled a 5 year, $50 million contract from the Angels.  Some steroid allegations we're made and let's be honest the man has fallen off the statistically positive face of the earth.

From Rob Neyer:

Purely in terms of value, the Mets have given up something for nothing. 

Brian Stokes is nobody's idea of a star, but he's cheap and he's got a 3.82 ERA in the National League. 

Gary Matthews essentially forced Bill James to invent Loss Shares. 

Yes, that's a joke. Bill started thinking about Loss Shares long before Matthews signed his $50 million contract with the Angels. But according to Wins Above Replacement, in the first three years of that five-year deal, Matthews has been worth negative $5.2 million. 

Perhaps I was too kind. One might argue that the Mets just gave up something for lessthan nothing.

It's a classic Mets acquisition!  Yes, $2 million is nothing to a big market team to the Mets, but why waste it?  Why not sign someone on the market for a quarter of that who might actually play at the level of a replacement player instead of costing the team even more money than you're paying him!  Omar Minaya's expiration date just jumped up a few days, if not weeks.

Written by Mike Mariano | 24 January 2010

Ruben Amaro has been quite active this week after two weeks or so of nothing.  Hell, I think I've been talking Mets most of the past two weeks, but they've given me plenty of material to bash and laugh about.  This week brought forth a flurry of signings and extensions for the Phillies.  We've already talked Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton, now there's Jose Contreras and potentially Carlos Ruiz.  Also, the official departure of Matt Stairs.

Jose first.  Contreras has been a particularly weak pitcher over the past few years, throwing over 100 innings, but constantly sporting a 4+ ERA.  In no way is Contreras a fantastic option, even in his prime he only had an ERA under 4 once and a WHIP under 1.3 twice.  However in the current depleted market, assuming the money is small, he's a safe signing.  Throw in the fact that he's pitching in the National League for the first time (his 17 innings in Colorado at the end of last year don't count) and there's at least some upside to hope for.  Whether he earns a rotation spot remains to be seen, but it's not a big risk to see what he can't bring to the table.

Phillies Nation is reporting that Carlos Ruiz has signed an extension to avoid arbitration (despite the fact that I haven't seen evidence of this anywhere else), so it's worth mentioning here.  I'm assuming that Chuuch Ruiz found himself a multi-year deal for two reasons: the dearth of MLB-ready catchers on the farm and his postseason play.  Carlos certainly has his faults as a catcher and struggles at the plate, but his workman like attitude everyday and propensity for postseason success has made him a fan favorite of sorts.  I don't know how many people will be upset when he goes, but most enjoy him while he's here.

Finally Matt Stairs is set to be a Padre.  The deal is a minor league contract, while a major league invite and a chance to fill the same role he played so well here in Philadelphia.  Jerry Crasnick reports that Stairsy had dropped 31 pounds in an effort to improve his play and his chances of making the big club.  I hope the old veteran finds a spot on the big club and extends his career, even if only for another year.

Written by Mike Mariano | 21 January 2010

Joe Blanton just inked himself $24M over the next three years.  Big Fat Joe avoids arbitration this year to add on the next two years of free agency after.  I'm still upset with Joe for being the $8 million dollar reason that the Phillies couldn't retain Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, but we've been over that already.  Blanton was a solid piece in the World Series run and pitched great last season.  This contract is deserved for a good middle of the rotation guy and eats innings on a team that desperately needs it.

More importantly/excitingly(?)/significantly, Craig Calcaterra of NBC's Circling the Bases writes that a source reports a 3 year, $22M extension for Shane Victorino.  Shane avoids arbitration and gets a raise that acknowledges his strong play over the past few years.  Not only was he a great player, he made Mets fans absolutely crazy which is worth half that salary alone.  Carlos Ruiz will be the only arbitration guy remaining for the Phillies if this move indeed passes through.

Written by Benny B. | 21 January 2010

Sticking with the theme of Minor Leaguers, Toby Hyde over at Mets Minor League Blog explains why we should not be giving up on Fernando Martinez even though he has failed so far to live up to the hype of a top 25 prospect.  Obviously, health has been the main issue with him.  He just can't stay on the field. However, F-Mart has been pounding the ball in the winter league playoffs recently going 5-6 with a 2 run HR & 5 rib-eye steaks.  Let hope this is a sign of good things to come in 2010.

Hyde also compares F-Mart to Dominic Brown, the Phillies highly touted prospect:

Pretty comparable with F-Mart flashing slightly more power...plus he's one year younger to boot.

Regardless, this is going to be an important year for F-Mart.  If he is going to prove he can stay on the field at the MLB level, he has first got to prove it at the Minor League Level.  I have always liked this kid, and I am rooting for him.  But time is running out.

Written by Benny B. | 20 January 2010

Over the last couple of years, all I keep hearing is how the Mets can't trade for such and such a player because they don't have "the chips"...Then we get Johan Santana, and now we really cleaned out our farm system right?  Wrong.

Doug Grey over at redsminorleagues.com comprised a ranking of franchise farm valuations using John Sickles preliminary prospect rankings, research by Victor Wang & surplus value calculations by Erik Manning from Beyond the Boxscore.  Here's what he found:

The Mets rank right in the middle of the pack coming in at #13 sandwiched in between the Royals and Reds.  Not great, but certainly not the stereotype of doom and gloom that is pushed by the media and right here on this site.

On the other hand, what I find most interesting (and satisfying) is how shitty the Phillies farm system is.  Yup the Phillies rank #27 out of 30 teams with a combined valuation of 58.58.  That's nearly half as much value as the Mets farm system.  In other words, according to this statistical analysis, the Mets farm system is twice as good as the Phillies....Let that sink in a little bit more:  TWICE AS GOOD.

So when Mike says the mets should go about fixing "all cracks in the [Mets] foundation (farm system)", it would appear it is not the Mets whose farm is in a dyer situation.  Many Phillie fans like to puff their chest out and give their front office a pass when they sign a 40 year old left field more suited to a DH role, trade one of the best pitchers in baseball for an older more injury prone best pitcher in baseball and needlessly sign aging back up players to multi-year deal all because "The Phillies are a championship caliber team".  Well, so were the Mets in 2006-2008.  Injuries and a lack of MLB ready talent is what did them in during that time period.  As unlucky as the Mets were last year with injuries, the Phillies had very few.  The tide turns very quickly in the MLB and luck and injuries play a significant part.  It will be interesting to see how the Phillies farm system produces when they are inevitably forced to use it...and that could be the beginning of the end of this Phillies team.

So Phillie fans, discuss amongst yourselves.  I am sure I will see well thought out statistical rebuttals in the face of such damning evidence with no emotional homer-ism going on...ah, who am I kidding, these are Phillie Phans we are talking about!  Bring on the comments about misspellings in this post.  Enjoy.

Written by Mike Mariano | 19 January 2010

The hits just keep on coming.  I haven't written about the Phillies in a week because this Mets stuff allows for me to bash them seemingly everyday.  Craig Calcaterra (the Shyster) writes for Circling the Bases today about the situation and a new wrinkle from Peter Gammons.  Namely, that the Mets never insured Carlos Beltran's contract.  Therefore, in things go awry and he misses the season, the Mets pay his exorbitant salary for him to rehab and rest.  The Shyster wonders whether the Mets mistake was due to incompetence and/or reluctancy to spend.  Did they botch the insurance, not realizing the need to insure an aging star, or did they try to sneak by without paying the premiums?  Either way, despite the rain cloud that's been flooding Flushing for the past year, the heavy stuff isn't coming down for a while.

Added by Benny B

From Metsblog:

I e-mailed Maury Brown, from the Biz of Baseball, as well as Will Carroll ofBaseball Prospectus, both of whom I trust and respect when it comes to medical and contract news in MLB, and they said:

Carroll: It’s impossible to insure a pitcher beyond three years.  I’d assume that it’s the same for position players.  I’d guess maybe 10 percent of contracts are insured.  Maybe.

Brown: My understanding is long-term contracts are becoming exceptionally hard due to risk.

I know you take joy in jumping on Mets management, but do some research first.  Is Halliday's contract insured?

Written by Mike Mariano | 19 January 2010

Exhibit 247H-921.5.7 that the Mets organization is running beyond repair comes from Buster Olney's blog today.  Buster imparted the following, in his moves,deals and decisions section:

Part of the unusual nature of the Mets' offseason has been the fact that general manager Omar Minaya has never been given a budget. As the baseball operations powers have been evaluating possible strategies, the executives haven't been able to cast these choices against the context of how much money is available. On almost all teams, the talent evaluators are given a budget and then paint within those lines, dispersing the dollars according to the needs. The Mets' front office, on the other hand, is making its recommendations to Jeff Wilpon on a case-by-case basis, without knowing whether it is yet bumping up against a financial ceiling, or knowing how to prioritize the current needs for pitching or catching. "You need to start with a budget," said one talent evaluator. "And then you work from there. This really makes it much more difficult." In many cases, Wilpon has been the lead negotiator for the Mets this offseason, and not Omar Minaya -- reinforcing the belief in some corners of the organization that Minaya is one extended losing streak removed from being fired.

Come again?  In what way is managing a payroll without knowing the budget a strong financial move?  So, Minaya is going to go out and say, "what the hell, let's throw... hmmm... $5 million at Francoeur today and see what the big guy says,"  without having a clue how close he is to Wilpon's monetary threshold.  Does Minaya have to just keep trucking along, spending money until Wilpon steps in and tells him to pump the brakes?

On top of that, Omar's power within the organization must be evaporating fast if Wilpon is doing the negotiating and giving the okay for all personnel moves.  That puts the Mets in a Jerry Jones type scenario where the ownership assumes control of the ship and everybody else is a figurehead.  The dysfunction in the Mets organization is reaching new, before unseen bounds this year.  This situation opens the door for a stranger one:  Wilpon has a precise budget, he just isn't sharing it with the GM.  Then he let's Omar do the dirty work and put together figures and locate players, then Wilpon chooses the course of action.  Simpler, Omar crunches numbers, Wilpon gets to play with them, Omar takes the fall in the long run.

Imagine you're given a house in a sweepstakes.  Hey, here's your house, we'll pay for any renovations you make up until a certain point, but we're not telling you where.  What do you do then?  How do you prioritize one job versus another?  Putting in a new kitchen (Molina) would be fantastic, but can you really go without fixing that bathroom (Pinero), and what about the electrical issues (Filling the bench) all cracks in the foundation (farm system).  Without a budget, there's no way to know where to start.

I am driving the non-Mets-fan car in the Fire Omar Minaya bandwagon and even I think he's destined to fail with such a organizational dynamic in place.  Look at the example above, Bengie Molina rejected the Mets offer today (yes, the one we all thought he signed).  Now the focus shifts on Joel Pinero.  Omar has no idea how much money there is for Molina and Pinero; if he wants to sign one, will there be money for the other?  If Buster's insight is true, then I have as much of a clue as Minaya does.  That's a problem of the highest order and something we've come to expect from our Flushing rivals.

Written by Mike Mariano | 17 January 2010

This Carlos Beltran battle has undoubtedly been a bright part of my week.  Carlos had surgery, wasn't supposed to, the Mets didn't know, he said, she said.  Awesome.  The team won't have him for the first month or so of the season, and that's if things go well.  As I right this, I can feel the "bah! typical Phillies fans, celebrating an injury" coming.  Go right ahead and throw it out there, but it isn't the reality.  The reality is that this gives me so much pleasure because it's another example of the dysfunctional Mets organization at work. I don't root for Mets players to get injured because then it just leaves room for "Oh, well we weren't at full strength, we had injuries, blah, blah, blah" when the Phillies top the Mets in the standings.  I want the Mets at full strength to really break their spirits.

My favorite Beltran post of the week comes from Real Fake Sports, who highlighted the real reason the Mets were so angry; Beltran performed the surgery on himself!:

The New York Mets are outraged with their centerfielder Carlos Beltran and his decision to perform surgery on his own knee. The team had hoped Beltran would have sought the services of an actual sports medicine physician.

"I can't believe Carlos would do that," said an angered member of Mets management. "He had no idea what he was doing and could have cause some serious damage. I wish Carlos would have taken the time to discuss further options with our medical staff instead of taking things into his own hands. Literally. If he didn't want to utilize the Mets team physician that's one thing, but performing a surgery on yourself? That ludicrous!"

Written by Matt Ryan | 15 January 2010

You can't even make this stuff up.  Not only are the Mets going to be without Carlos Beltran for most of April, they have successfully embarrassed themselves as an organization, and created a rift with one of the best players in baseball.

Obviously, the lack of communication between Beltran and the organization is alarming.  But I'm even more upset that Beltran didn't have this surgery months ago.  This leads my to believe that the Mets doctors have absolutely no idea what they're doing.  According to Craig Carton, Beltran had 25 pieces of loose cartilage in his knee.  I'm no doctor, but I think its pretty obvious that this requires some form of surgery.

Based on Carton's account of the story, which can be read here, the Mets knew Beltran was having issues with his knee, and both sides agreed that surgery was probably the best option.  Beltran was told to meet with team physician Dr. Altchek, and give the Mets brass a few days to think things over.  But Altchek told Beltran that there was no reason to wait, and the procedure should be done as soon as possible.  He referred Beltran to Dr. Steadman  (the James Andrews of knee injuries), and he set up surgery for 7am the next morning.  The Wilpons and Omar Minaya are in Arizona for the owners meetings, so there was no time to think things over.  Apparently, Dr. Steadman did get in contact with the Mets, because otherwise he couldn't legally operate on Beltran.  Carton also claims that Beltran called Minaya right before the procedure, and Minaya said he was on board.

If this account is true, and I tend to trust Carton as a reliable source, the Mets are making a big deal out of nothing.  Because if they did feel surgery was the best course of action, I don't understand why they would spend a few days thinking things over.  Every extra day they wait is an extra game Beltran could miss.  I feel like there's more to this story, and I'm going to reserve final judgement until we know all the details.  But this is just more bad press for the Mets, and I think it's pretty obvious that Beltran's relationship with the Mets is now strained.

Added by Benny B.

And if you thought it possibly couldn't get any worse, think again.  The incredible Omar Minaya (which is how I am going to be referring to him from now on since he is a circus act) added his two cents by saying he did NOT discuss the surgery with Beltran, and thus did not know about it.

Sheesh.  Can this guy just STFU already!  Or better yet, just fire him like he should have been last year or even the year before. He is a lame duck which is why they did not turn to Omar to give the initial press conference.  I have got to believe that he is slated to be fired soon, and if I had to guess, they are simply waiting to fill out their roster so potential free agents wouldn't get scared away by a team in turmoil.  Well, maybe that was the plan, but now that this fiasco has taken place, what are they waiting for?  In fact, it would probably be better to fire somebody at this juncture than alienating the best player on your team and the biggest sports agent in the game.  I mean, even if the mets "win" this battle, they will lose and I can't believe nobody in this organization can see this.

Dave Cameron put it best in a post over at Fangraphs:

Ricco’s handling of the conference call only goes to further confuse the chain of authority in Queens. Minaya is clearly not in charge, as the Wilpons continue to exercise more than a usual amount of influence on the front office. But they won’t willingly admit to running things either, leading to a nebulous power situation where there is simply no clear leader.

This is dysfunction on a large stage. Much like the last days of Jim Bowden’s reign in Washington, you have to wonder whether they’ll be able to escape growing evidence of a lack of control in the front office – never mind the questionable decisions Minaya has made spending the Wilpons’ money.

At this point, they just need to start over. The current situation isn’t working and it’s getting worse, not better. The team has a new ballpark in a huge metropolitan area and some terrific pieces to build around – they should be contenders. They should be well-run. But they aren’t. It’s time for some wholesale changes before things get any worse, if that’s possible.

Apparently, it is possible Dave...