We're the Team to Beat - a Mets and Phillies Rivalry Blog
Plugging Holes: Third Base
Written by Mike Mariano   
Thursday, 12 November 2009 12:51

Yesterday we talked about the Phillies and potential bullpen acquisitions. Today, we'll talk third base, a position that Philly hasn't had a long-term answer at since, well unless Scott Rolen coutns, not in my lifetime.  Pedro Feliz's $5.5 Million option for 2010 has been declined so the position is open to be filled this offseason.  Let's look at the present contenders for the job:

Pedro Feliz

Happy Pete's time in Philly certainly had its high and low moments.  Pedro was a terrific defender from start to finish during his tenure but he didn't deliver the offensive goods that the front office was looking for.  Pedro's average was consistent along with his career marks, as was his on-base percentage.  However, the slugging just wasn't there and other than the defense that's why he was brought in.  After peppering 20 home runs a season four straight years in San Francisco where he played half his games in a pitcher's park, he only hit 14 & 12 runs respectively in his two years in Philly and a hitter-friendly park.  Now at 35, Feliz can't be counted on for his power and the defense will only continue to slip.  Amaro has said he will consider bringing Feliz back but only for less than the $5.5 million price tag they already rejected.  Personally, I think Pedro's time in Philly is up.  It's been great, we got a World Series title and Pedro played a solid role in that.  He had some big hits and made some great defensive plays, but I believe the road will end here.

Chone Figgins

Chone has generated quite a stock going into this offseason and should receive a real nice payday.  Despite all of Chone's abilities on the field, his coming contract may be reason alone that he's out of the Phillies plans.  Chone runs and fields and hits for a solid average and would do well table setting in our offense, but then what happens to J-Roll or Shane at the top of the lineup?  Is that a hornet's nest worth kicking with Jimmy?  I don't know, I think Charlie would be able to handle it.  Regardless, I don't think this road is one we'll be traveling so there's no more reason to look down it.

Mark DeRosa

Being a Penn Baseball guy, I've got no choice but to back Marky Mark and encourage brining him in this offseason.  Mark's 35 now, but he's put together his best years over the past three seasons.  Maybe it was due to a full slate of playing time, maybe he found a new hitting coach or stance, maybe he got a new girlfriend, I don't know, I don't care.  Now, how does he fit in in Philly?  Firstly in his favor is that the front office is a Good Old Boys network of former Penn and Wharton grads so I'm sure they've got a soft spot for DeRosa.  Secondly, he demonstrated a willingness and capability to play nearly any position on the field the last few seasons.  Right now, I think DeRosa is the number one contender for the job.  However, I have mixed feelings about Mark playing 3B everyday.  Not because he can't do it, but because he is such an exceptional super-utility guy.  In a perfect world, I think signing DeRosa and a guy to platoon with him would be the smart play.  Then, Mark could fill in all around the field for the inevitable injuries.  Raul is an old guy and will be spending some time on the DL, Chase seems to always be playing hurt, Shane might (probably will) knick something while flying around the field.  You get the picture.  More on this at the end of the look-in.

Placido Polanco

My immediate thought, no. Polanco is a second baseman who has indicated a willingness to switch to third full-time.  He's fresh off a gold glove campaign, but as Rob Neyer noted the other day, he won it more on merit and less on being exceptional.  Placido is a classically good hitter, but I don't see him lasting another 2-3 years at his current level of play.  I'm not sure why, but I can't see him as an everyday guy on this squad anymore.  He played here from '02 to '05 so the team is familiar and comfortable with him.  However, considering Polanco's abilities, does his fit in with the current team?  Polanco would be a bottom of the order, 7 or 8 slot hitter.  Considering that, who would he be table-setting for?  Chuuch.  Who would he be moving runners into scoring position for?  The pitcher.  However, it's more complicated than that.  For a guy batting after Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez, the team needs a solid hitter to clean up whatever base runners sneak through those cracks.  Polanco has smacked at least 30 doubles the past three season despite the fact that he's not a power guy.  I'm still not sold on him as the best option, but Placido has his merits should the front office bring him aboard.

Adrian Beltre

For this breakdown, I want to jump over to Lookout Landing, a Mariners blog, for their take on Adrian in '09: "Adrian Beltre didn't have a resurgent 2004-esque season to finally get the adoration that his defense has deserved for so long. Instead, he struggled as much as ever and battled serious injuries all season. He even suffered the ignominy of a ruptured/shattered/ohmygodIhavetostopthinkingaboutit testicle caused by his own tragic insistence on not wearing proper protection on the field. Did I mention that he finished the game in which that injury occurred? And that he played through immensely painful bone spurs in his shoulder? Adrian Beltre appears fun loving from his mocking of Griffey and dancing to his own introduction music. He has quirky histrionics at the plate including his own appeals and a shuffle dance at breaking pitches. He's an art form with the glove. Who cannot relate to the person with an under heralded talent they feel is not appreciated enough? And he gives it all, every last drop, on the field. More than maybe any player aside from Ichiro, Beltre deserves appreciation from local fans for his combination of skills and effort. I just want to meet him in person so I can give him a big hug and let him know that some of us, not just Red, think he’s awesome."  If that doesn't sound like guy you want on your team, then you obviously have issues reading in italics.  Beltre is an exceptional fielder, even compared to Pedro, and hits much better than our happy third basemen ever did.  Post an injury riddled '09 is a great time to sign a guy because he should definitely come at some discount.  I think Beltre earned a strange reputation after he came back to earth from his incredible 2004 season and the fact that he's been in the league for 12 seasons already, but he's established himself as a good, reliable player.  Beltre is my choice for the role, but it may come down to a monetary decision.  He's coming off a big contract that should slide downward some, but having Scott Boras as his agent, well you know...

 
The Relief Pitcher Market: Beware of Dogs
Written by Mike Mariano   
Wednesday, 11 November 2009 10:19

Just about every news and rumors site is talking about the Phillies and all the many relief pitchers that they are "in contact with" and kicking the tires on.  Most of these rumors are probably true because the Phillies are in dire need of some bullpen help. So before we talk about who the Phillies want/need, let's look at the market:

Jose Valverde

Rafael Soriano/Mike Gonzalez/Billy Wagner

Fernando Rodney/Kiko Calero/Rafael Betancourt

J.J. Putz/Takashi Saito

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel

So that's what we're looking at in a somewhat tiered offering of what's available. A few guys are most likely out of place, but it's a starting point.  Let's work from the top, down. Valverde is without a doubt the best available relief pitcher/closer on the market. Pitching for Houston he didn't have a massive amount of opportunities but he saved 25 games and sported a 2.33 ERA.  His strike outs were down, but so were his hits allowed and home runs.  The problem with signing him is that he will assuredly want to close games and that may or may not be a definite in Philly.

Soriano, Gonzalez, & Wagner all present interesting cases.  Wagner carries the risk of coming off an injury but he pitched well in his short stint at the end of '09.  Soriano and Gonzalez both had solid seasons and are proven relievers.  I think I am down on those two because of their respective work in the closers role.  In Philly I don't think either would be a closer, so they could work.  However, they both spent significant time pitching in Atlanta, so the divisional foes all are more than comfortable facing them.  Not a big deal, but worth considering.

Fernando Rodney had an incredible '09 campaign converting 37 of 39 save chances.  However, Fernando still barely had his ERA+ over 1 (the average) and his WHIP approaced 1.5.  Rodney has always had the big time fastball and potential, however I don't think he would be a good fit in Philly.  The AL to NL certainly helps, however his price tag will be higher than his actual value because of this season's performance. Kiko Calero was great in Florida rarely giving up runs or base runners for that matter.  Calero is 34 years old, but a 2 year deal and a middle relief role would work out well. Rafael Betancourt made a solid come back from a rough '08 to pitch extremely well down the stretch for the Rockies.  He's another older guy at 34, but everybody knows in the national league you can be a relief pitcher forever.  This is another AL to NL guy too, always a good thing for pitchers.

Putz and Saito are both formerly dominant closers that are past there prime.  Saito had a solid '09 for Boston and is a much safer bet than Putz who had a horrendous '09 which ended in a surgery and the Mets not picking up his option.  I think Putz would be a phenomenal signing for the Phillies.  This is because he would come cheap and with no expectations because most Phillies fans are well aware of his shittyness this past year.  Then who knows maybe we get lucky and he rediscovers his fastball.  Couple that with the general anger that it would cause in Mets fans and I'm fully on the Putz bandwagon for next season.

LaTroy Hawkins/Kevin Gregg/John Grabow/Darren Oliver/Octavio Dotel  In the final grouping there is plenty to like because they're all experience relievers, but there's plenty not to like because guys like this bounce around like bar hoppers near the end of their careers and you never know what you're gonna get.  Of the group, I like Gregg, Grabow, and Oliver a little more than Hawkins and Dotel, but really there isn't too much to get all that excited about across the board.

So what should we expect?  Honestly not all that much.  The Phillies will most likely sign one of these guys, but it won't be a day of high-fiving, it'll be a solid, yet unspectacular addition to a championship-caliber ballclub.  I'm rooting for Calero & Putz on cost-effective deals, but who knows what we'll end up with.  A part of me thinks that we should just call up some minor league starters who don't project at the big league level as rotation guys.  More often than not, the best relievers are guys who came up as starters, we're bound to have some useful ones down on the farm.

 
Top 50 Free Agents MLBTR
Written by Benny B.   
Tuesday, 10 November 2009 06:57

So the World Series from Hell is over & The Curse is Broken (I did take a degree of satisfaction from watching Shane "Shame" Victorino make the final out of the Series and watch him slink back to the dugout).  That can only mean one thing:  Hot Stove season is heating up. Here's a list of the top 50 free agents according to MLB Trade Rumors and who Tim Dirkes predicts goes where in the NL East.

1.  Matt Holliday - Mets. The Mets could grab headlines by signing Holliday to a six or seven-year deal for more than $100MM.

5.  Randy Wolf - Mets. The Mets regrettably chose Oliver Perez over Wolf a year ago.  As the best available starter aside from Lackey, Wolf is primed to get a three-year deal worth more than $30MM.

7.  Jose Valverde - Phillies. One way to shore up a shaky bullpen: sign the best closer available.  Few teams are seeking closers, and even fewer have money, so the Phillies should be able to get a relative bargain.

13.  Orlando Hudson - Nationals. The Nats coveted Hudson last year.  Adding him now would help with their stated goal of improving up the middle.

21.  Adam LaRoche - Braves. Did LaRoche's scorching stint with the Braves last year price him out of their range?  The Mets, Orioles, A's, Mariners, Giants, D'Backs, and Rangers might also be in the market for a first baseman.

24.  Carl Pavano - Nationals. Back to his original organization?  Pavano surprisingly managed 33 starts in '09, and his 4.16 xFIP reveals his 5.10 ERA was misleading.

25.  Brad Penny - Mets. Penny is just one of many different arms the Mets might consider as they attempt to bolster their rotation depth.  No other free agent starter throws harder, so Penny's upside is still tantalizing.

28.  Bengie Molina - Nationals. Molina is difficult to place, especially if he demands more than $5MM.  With Jesus Flores coming off shoulder surgery, the Nats will probably add a veteran on a one-year deal.  The Mets also may sign a catcher.

29.  Mike Gonzalez - Braves. Gonzalez should be cheaper than Soriano, and the Braves need some kind of relief signing or acquisition. With available closers plentiful, the Braves could wait around until March in hopes of a bargain.

41.  Mark DeRosa - Phillies. I debated flipping the DeRosa-Beltre predictions, as both the Phillies and Twins have a need at third base.  DeRosa, a former Penn quarterback, has been linked to the Phils for years.

  • To say that Holliday would be a huge addition to the Mets would be an understatement.  Minaya has made many a big splash in the past so as long as the Mets have the money and the years to give him, they will be in the Holliday sweepstakes.  7 years is not out of the question.
  • I want no part of Randy Wolf.  He would have been good (and wasted) had we picked him up on the cheap last year, and it is being reported that Mets front office want a "do over" with Wolf.  Ted Berg puts it best here
  • The closer Market is flooded this year.  So it would not surprise me to see the Phillies pick up Valverde or Mike Gonazalez
  • I have no qualms with the Mets signing Penny to a short term/high incentive laden deal.  But knowing how the Mets, that means they will probably outbid themselves and dish out another Ollie Perez Deal
  • I like DeRosa A Lot.  I have had him on my fantasy team for three years in a row.  He is versatile (can play nearly every infield position), athletic and has pop.  I wouldn't mind the Mets signing him as insurance in the event they are unable to get a big bat for 1st base or incase Castillo gets traded/injured.  I think he would be a huge pickup for the Phillies.
So with rumors already flying back and forth about the Phillies getting into the mix regarding Roy Halliday, and the Mets false report about a three way trade that would send Castillo to the Cubs and Lyle Overbay to the mets, it is gearing up to be a very busy off-season. Let the fun Begin.  Oh yea, and Phillie sucks.
 
Cole Hamels in the middle of Video Game controversy
Written by Mike Mariano   
Tuesday, 10 November 2009 01:14

The last time that Cole Hamels did something off that field that was funny and/or cool might have been when he called the Mets choke artists (never gets old).  But right now, Cole Hamels is in the middle of a controversial commercial-advertisement-type internet spot for the hot new video game, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 that released last night at midnight.  Here is Cole's cameo:

It's strange to imagine that Cole Hamels is a big video game guy, let alone Call of Duty where you kill people in a military setting.  That's the main reason I'm skeptical of whether this was actually Cole.  Whether it was or it wasn't I think it's funny and like to think that Cole's a normal guy and not somebody who's so laid back that it's weird.  Good move Hamels.  Please, if you actually acted in this, don't back off it with some weak apology and public statement.  Who am I kidding...

 
Thoughts on the departed and those under the knife
Written by Mike Mariano   
Monday, 09 November 2009 19:17

Well it took some time to get back to the blog after the World Series finale.  It wasn't so much a bitterness, more like a detox.  I needed to shut the book on 2009, laugh, cry, whatever, and get ready for another fun offseason of trades and signings and Scott Boras (that part is no fun).  In the past few days, there has been some interesting Phillies news and lets jump into each one individually.  First the guys we won't see next year:

Brett Myers

This one hurts.  Brett has been a Philly lifer and fun to root for.  I understand all the problems he had with his wife, but I like his as a baseball player, not as a drinking buddy.  Well then again, he's probably a great drinking buddy, just my guess.  Myers has had ups, downs, more ups, more downs, but it's been a good ride.  It'll be sad to see him pitch in another uniform, but there really is no reason to pick up his option because he can't stay on the field.

Pedro Feliz

Pedro never hit 30 home runs like we hoped for in the pipe dream scenario when he signed.  However, Pedro played fantastic defense and added a few clutch hits and home runs to boot.  Pedro never set the world on fire, but Happy Peter was a great role player for some great teams.

Matt Stairs

I don't need to get into how much I love Matt Stairs.  I doubt he's going to accept a minor league deal from the Phillies but the move makes sense.  Stairs is an old man and we need to thank him for one of the biggest home runs of the 2008 title run and move on.  I'll still be wearing my Stairs shirt on the regular though, he was too much fun to watch hack to really forget about.

Also, some guys have surgery this week and that includes, Lidge (elbow), Eyre (elbow) and Ibanez (hernia).  Hopefully these surgeries explain some of the downward trending play from these guys and they'll return to health and maximum productivity in 2010.  It rarely works out that way, but a guy has to have hope.

 
Jimmy can't lose with class and that's fine by me
Written by Mike Mariano   
Thursday, 05 November 2009 16:40

Only Jimmy Rollins could find himself all over the internet the morning after losing the World Series to the Yankees without blowing the game the night before.  Jimmy obviously made a big old prediction to start the series because... that's what he does.  The Phillies didn't make good on that prediction, but that's not why he's dominating the blogosphere.  No, this is:

"They were the better team this series," Rollins said Wednesday night. "Do I think we're the better team? I really do. They just executed. I think we weren't playing bad, but they were playing that much better. ... They got the hits, we didn't. It's that simple."

Naturally, there's a pretty uniform response to him thoughts: just Jimmy being Jimmy, what an idiot. Step back a little here and take a breath.  What was Jimmy supposed to say?  Yes, he could've said the "ah shucks, they're better than us, get 'em next year" line that every guy gives, but that wouldn't be who Jimmy is.  What made him a great player and an MVP is his supreme confidence, if not cockiness.  That's the same reason that Rollins constantly says big bold things in the media, but it's what motivates him.  He loves to talk big and go out there and back it up.  Granted, he was poor on the field this year, but no one can take away the fact that the guy is a gamer and plays hard and fast for a terrific ballclub.

So who cares if Jimmy Rollins thinks the Phillies are better than the Yankees?  Should we put the parade on hold until he apologizes or sees the light?  Jimmy is going to be brash and bold as long as he's still lacing up the cleats.  The lesson if you don't like it is ignore it.  I personally like it.  Rollins is part of what makes the Phillies the team they are and gives them the identity we all love.  So Jimmy whatever you've got to say, I'm listening, even if it's a little foolish.

 
The Title Defense Dies in Game 6 of the World Series
Written by Mike Mariano   
Thursday, 05 November 2009 01:15

If I learned anything in winning the World Series last season, it taught me nothing about how to deal with losing one.  Watching a season slip away after coming so close spawned some emotions that I have never dealt with as a Phillies fan.  It takes everything I have to fight off the bitter and spiteful hatred I have for the Yankees right now and congratulate them on definitively being the best team in baseball.

I’m torn about this Yankees team despite all there is to hate about them, there is so much to admire.  Enraged and disappointed, I came back to earth when I saw Jeter and Mariano find each other during the celebration and hug like brothers.  Those are two baseball players that I have more respect for that any other guys in the league.  Watching Derek Jeter play is one of those things that I won’t forget and I’ve spent the majority of my life despising the Yankees.  Mo is another guy that is so historically great and likeable that it takes some of the sting out of this loss.

Now that the series is over most of all, I’m proud of my Phillies.  If you’d have told me three years ago that we’d win the World Series and then take the title defense all the way to the World Series (against the Yankees no less) I’d have been ecstatic.  That’s why it’s so tough for me to let tonight bother me.  Don’t get me wrong, watching the title slip away was excruciating, but the way the game played out game me some time to prepare for the depression and honestly, it’s not that bad.  I’ve had more fun watching Chase, Jimmy, Howard, Werth, Shane, Cole, Brad, and Cliff than I ever would’ve dreamed not so long ago.  I’ve sang “High Hopes” down Broad Street and hugged complete strangers in pure joy.  I’ve got the World Champs gear and I got to go toe to toe with all my buddies from home who’re big Yankees fans.  All in all, it was an awesome run and I’d give anything for the Phillies to keep it rolling next season.


 
And the Winner is...
Written by Benny B.   
Wednesday, 04 November 2009 17:13

Congratulations Phillie!  You earned it! Smile

 

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If game 7 comes, Cole is still the man to go
Written by Mike Mariano   
Wednesday, 04 November 2009 12:41

This Cole Hamels story has taken on a mind of it's own.  I've probably read about it at every website and blog I visited yesterday.  The response was largely the same, "how dare you", "send him home", "he sucks".  That had to be expected because Cole committed one of team sports biggest crimes -- apparently, he quit on his team.  Benny already talked about this at length, so I won't reprint the quotes because I'm sure you've heard it by now.  Also, apparently the entire clubhouse is splitting over the Myers/Hamels blowout, or so the media would have you believe.  I'm more inclined to think they were just joking/there was a misunderstanding and that more of the clubhouse is indifferent to the situation.

If a game 7 is forced, Cole Hamels is the man to pitch it.

So Cole "quit" on the team and is ready for the season to be over?  Come on.  Yeah the comments were unforgivable if you take them at face value, but they came in an honest response about how tough this year has been for him.  In that interview he talked about Game 7 and how important it is.  Cole Hamels did more to seal this town their first championship in a quarter century during last years playoffs than anyone.  The guy stepped up bigger and bigger every single time he threw.  The guy is struggling this time around and understandably his confidence isn't what it was when he was mowing down hitters into November last season.

And it's not the first time that Cole has answered an question candidly and got himself in trouble for it.  As the Mets fans won't let anyone forget, Cole had his comments about the Mets being choke artists (get over it, it was a pointed question and he answered in the context of the question and you can't be mad if it's true).  Now it happens again and everyone wants to jump down his throat like he was trying to recreate the 1919 Black Sox scandal.

More importantly, Cole Hamels is the best pitcher the Phillies have available to pitch a potential game 7.  J.A. Happ has had a great season, but he hasn't started since Colorado.  Big Joe Blanton is good, but he'd be on short rest.  I think this controversy might actually help the old ace to become his former self on the biggest of all stages in the biggest game of his career.  Game 7 is a long way away, but should we make it there, Hamels is going to take us home.  Until then, let's get a W tonight one inning at a time.

 
On to New York for 6 & 7
Written by Mike Mariano   
Tuesday, 03 November 2009 18:06

Sorry for this post coming so late in the day, but I think I developed an ulcer during the ninth inning of last night's game.  Two men on and Derek Jeter up, with no outs nonetheless, I was in knots.  Madson closed out the game for the win, but not without nearly causing me to develop a hole in my stomach.  Just glad that's over with.

Chase Utley continues to make me look smarter and smarter by mashing home run after home run and carrying this Phillies offense through six games.  Chase's resurgence might be the first prediction I've gotten right in weeks and I feel damn good about it.  The man is unstoppable at the plate right now and you can tell that none of the Yankees pitchers want any piece of him (let alone Sabathia).

As far as predictions of mine go, here are two more for you:  In game 6, Ryan Howard is going deep and Raul Ibanez will have two hits and two RBIs.  The big boy has had his struggles and that's just fine, he's a streaky hitter, but that ends tomorrow.  Ryan Howard can snap a slump with one swing of the bat and I think he'll do just that.  As far as Raul, I'm counting on the bomb he hit last night to propel him into a strong game 6.  If Howard and Ibanez step out of the black hole that has been their spots in the lineup, one to nine, the Phillies are going to wear out Andy Petitte.

I don't think Andy Petitte is going to hold down the Phillies lineup in Game 6.  He survived on guts and glory in the later innings of his first start and on three days rest I don't think he can make magic happen a second time.  On our side of the mound, I think we can expect a similar outing from Pedro which the Phillies will have to hit enough to support.  6-7 innings, 2-4 runs from Pedro and I think the Phillies win.  Yes, that involves two innings from the bullpen but I think they can handle it.

If the Phillies can force a game 7... anything can happen.

 
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